Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

wsj.com) Good luck trying to time the stock market using valuation metrics. ft.com) Policy Why housing (policy) matters so much for the economy. wsj.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking mid-2% growth. (on.spdji.com) There are too many markets at all-time highs to count. whitecoatinvestor.com) Strategy High yields come with risk.

Financial Advising 295

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 295

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 3, 2024

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. At the same time, value and international stocks continue to lag, trading as if the economy is already in the depths of a serious recession.

Economics 243

Economics Marketing Marketing Valuation 243

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 7, 2023

theirrelevantinvestor.com) Big tech stocks have their own valuation experience. nytimes.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims are off their lows of a year ago. disciplinefunds.com) Have Fed rate hikes already worked its way through the economy? stock market of late. bloomberg.com) Salt Lake City is booming.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Insurance 289

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 13, 2024

on.ft.com) There is still a lot of uncertainty around office building valuations. axios.com) Economy "Real aggregate non-supervisory payrolls made a new all-time high in February." (wired.com) The spot Bitcoin ETF fee war is here. etf.com) Finance Why Evercore ($EVR) is outperforming other investment banks.

Financial Advising 317

Financial Advising Valuation Retail Media 317

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 26, 2023

bestinterest.blog) 60/40 portfolios Where the valuation of the 60/40 portfolio stands. vox.com) Economy The U.S. economy grew at a 4.9% (theirrelevantinvestor.com) The stock-bond correlation does one thing: it changes. (fa-mag.com) fa-mag.com) Stocks outperform bonds over the long run, but not every year or even decade.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Valuation Portfolio Economy 279

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2024

Markets Market valuations aren't that helpful in the short term. bloomberg.com) Economy Consumer balance sheets are in good shape. tker.co) The U.S. yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. ft.com) Strategy Why you can ignore all the magazine cover commentary. wsj.com) Marriage is a good deal, financially, in the U.S.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Commission Valuation Consulting 289

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

frontofficesports.com) Why seed stage valuations haven't dropped as much as you would think. longreads.com) Populism is bad for a country's economy. marginalrevolution.com) Economy Shouldn't there be more layoffs by now? Finance Goldman Sachs ($GS) want to sell HNW clients a piece of a sports franchise.

Financial Advising 290

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 290

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 27, 2024

hbr.org) Startups SpaceX is doing a tender at a $210 billion valuation. nytimes.com) Economy Continuing unemployment claims are heading higher. (safalniveshak.com) Companies Monster Beverage ($MNST) is unique not only for its stock performance. kyla.substack.com) How Starbucks ($SBUX) devalued its brand.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Startup Valuation Manufacturing 278

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 11, 2024

wsj.com) Companies Just how important AI is for valuations today. nber.org) Economy The Federal Reserve has all the data in the world, and still gets things wrong. (axios.com) A look at Gary Sernovitz's new novel "Counting House." msn.com) An excerpt from "Private Equity: A Memoir" by Carrie Sun.

Assets 288

Assets Financial Advising Valuation Media 288

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 3, 2023

wsj.com) Startups are going to experience a "new normal" valuation-wise. avc.com) SpaceX is raising new capital at a $137 billion valuation. nytimes.com) The UK has 'deconverged' from the rest of the global economy. nytimes.com) Economy Where various measures of the jobs market stand.

Startup 242

Startup Valuation Financial Advising Distribution 242

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 20, 2023

ft.com) Startups How unicorns are dealing with the decline in valuations. theinformation.com) The bloom is off the 'passion economy' rose? ft.com) Economy Existing home sales plunged in December. (wsj.com) Why PE firms are reluctant to put 'dry powder' to work. Those stakes are set to change hands.

Investments 246

Investments Investing Startup Financial Advising 246

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 14, 2023

wsj.com) Databricks just raised fresh capital at a $43 billion valuation. disciplinefunds.com) Economy It's still hard to see a recession on the horizon. bonddad.blogspot.com) The resumption of student loan repayments will hit the economy. ft.com) The UFC and WWE are now a part of TKO Group Holdings ($TKO).

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Valuation 279

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 15, 2023

(theinformation.com) Is there an AI premium for startup valuations? etf.com) Economy The change in weekly initial unemployment claims are are nearing recessionary levels. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Remember the creator economy? tomtunguz.com) AI-generated junk is flooding Etsy ($ETSY). theguardian.com)

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Startup Valuation Economy 244

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 9, 2023

(axios.com) Venture capital Why more markdowns are coming to venture capital portfolio valuations. news.crunchbase.com) China China's economy is now experiencing deflation. economist.com) Economy A re-accelerating economy risks higher base inflation. hunterwalk.com) Do VC platform teams add value?

Financial Advising 238

Financial Advising Economy Valuation Consulting 238

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2024

marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy. (amycastor.com) Companies It's hard to wrap your head around the numbers with Nvidia's ($NVDA) new chips.

Financial Advising 254

Financial Advising Startup Valuation Economy 254

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 5, 2022

We discuss Chancellor’s history as an analyst interested in speculative bubbles, which led him to write a research paper on valuations and why the dotcom bubble looks a lot like other historical bubbles. That eventually was expanded into Devil Take the Hindmost published in 1999, a few quarters before the bubble popped.

Valuation 311

Valuation Economy Management Marketing 311

Abnormal Returns

MAY 2, 2024

Does that mean you are less enamored of Berkshire shares at current valuations? ' (barrons.com) How long will Ajit Jain stay in the lead of Berkshire's insurance business? semafor.com) Economy The quits rate keeps falling. ft.com) Why it's difficult for Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) calculatedriskblog.com) The U.S.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Startup Media Valuation 260

Abnormal Returns

MAY 26, 2023

tomtunguz.com) Morgan Housel, "Companies should want the valuation they deserve, and not a penny more." nytimes.com) Lower natural gas prices are helping buoy the global economy. wsj.com) Economy The current bout of inflation is nothing if not complicated. collabfund.com) The 100 most reputable companies in America.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Valuation Retail Economy 245

Abnormal Returns

JULY 11, 2024

scheplick.com) NA beer Athletic Brewing is riding the wave of interest in NA beverages to a much higher valuation. npr.org) Economy June CPI actually fell. (newatlas.com) Eli Lilly ($LLY) could become the first $1 trillion health care company. wsj.com) Should minors be allowed to buy non-alcoholic drinks?

Financial Advising 247

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 247

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 24, 2022

(theinformation.com) Snowflake ($SNOW) is growing into its valuation. economist.com) Economy This high yield bond indicator is signalling economic trouble ahead. thediff.co) Global How the U.S. is trying to throttle China chip production. wsj.com) China is dramatically reducing the amount of economic statistics it publishes.

Marketing 246

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Valuation 246

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 7, 2023

(techcrunch.com) SpaceX SpaceX is reportedly planning a tender offer for employee shares at a $175 billion valuation. axios.com) Economy Kyla Scanlon, "People are complex and economics doesn’t (can’t!) yahoo.com) Why SpaceX continues to win new launch business. bloomberg.com) Bonds Vanguard is launching new actively managed bond ETFs.

Digital Media 274

Digital Media Electronics Financial Advising Startup 274

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 25, 2024

allstarcharts.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps. klementoninvesting.substack.com) Economy Q1 2024 GDP came in at 1.6% Markets The energy sector is still less than 4% of the S&P 500. collabfund.com) Expect to see some overconfidence tonight in Detroit.

Accounting 265

Accounting Consulting Financial Advising Valuation 265

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Markets Small cap stocks stand out for their cheap valuations. morningstar.com) Economy The labor economy drives spending, not savings. morningstar.com) Why have energy stocks and oil prices diverged? ft.com) You might be surprised what is the country's second largest bond fund.

Startup 244

Startup Marketing Marketing Financial Advising 244

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 20, 2023

(finance.yahoo.com) Hipgnosis is having a hard time coming up with song valuations. visualcapitalist.com) Economy The Fed is moderately tight. theguardian.com) Another (big) mall bites the dust. ibj.com) Red Sea The situation in the Red Sea will disrupt global trade. nytimes.com) How Houthi attacks affect global shipping.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 260

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 16, 2022

on.ft.com) Companies Instacart keeps slashing its valuation in anticipation of an IPO. conversableeconomist.com) Economy How much impact is the Fed having on the real economy? (nytimes.com) Boosters Americans are uninterested in the new bivalent boosters. theconversation.com) Why do so many interventions help women but not men?

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Portfolio Valuation Economy 242

Discipline Funds

OCTOBER 9, 2024

The US economy has been on a tear versus every other G20 economy over the last 10 years and especially in the last few years. While high interest rates are slowing most other developed economies the US has stayed relatively robust. On the other hand, you could argue that high valuations simply reflect a price premium.

Valuation 85

Valuation Economy Financial Planning Economics 85

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

behaviouralinvestment.com) IPOs Putting a valuation on Instacart ($CART). neckar.substack.com) Economy Don't get too hung up on all the various real-time GDP forecasts. Strategy A wide range of outcomes is always on the table. tonyisola.com) The hardest thing about being an investor is deciding what to focus on.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 265

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 22, 2023

theirrelevantinvestor.com) Do market valuations mean revert over time? ft.com) It's hard to find much that is going well for the Chinese economy. Markets The stock market is laser focused on interest rates. thediff.co) Why there's never a shortage of pundits willing to make a big market call.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Valuation Retail Media 246

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

Dividends come from earnings, and so those are sort of anchors to valuation. Jeremy Schwartz : And basically said that there’s huge Tech stocks, triple-digit PEs, you can never justify the valuations no matter what the growth rates are. Present value of future cash flows, any asset is present value of future cash flows.

Investments 296

Investments Investing Valuation Portfolio 296

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! Parts of the economy suffer – notably residential real estate, new job creation, and consumer spending. My take on these probabilities looks something like this: 1. The Fed gets it precisely right : Yay! to closer to 5%.

Economy 295

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 295

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 30, 2023

klementoninvesting.substack.com) Economy Signs that the U.S. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Fidelity has cut its valuation for Twitter shares, again. (nytimes.com) Funds How the launch of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ($SPY) changed financial markets. morningstar.com) Why sustainable funds can charge a premium.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Media Valuation Economy 246

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2023

tomtunguz.com) With valuations down, why aren't big tech companies buying more startups? reasonstobecheerful.world) Economy The Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the PCE, moderated in June. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Big Tech All things considered, Meta ($META) and Google ($GOOGL) dominate online ad spending.

Financial Advising 240

Financial Advising Startup Valuation Media 240

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 17, 2023

finance.yahoo.com) Markets Valuations don't matter in the short term. morningstar.com) Economy Any single economic data point is filled with noise. Rates Mortgage rates are at levels not seen since 2001. axios.com) Global government bond yields are at 15-year highs. theirrelevantinvestor.com) Forecasting is hard, the GMO edition.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Valuation Manufacturing Government 246

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 27, 2023

nytimes.com) Companies Revisiting Tesla's ($TSLA) valuation, post-Twitter fiasco. thebasispoint.com) Housing The Fed's policies are hitting the economy primarily through the housing channel. (rationalwalk.com) Funds Dividend-focused funds are having their moment. How do they perform over the long run?

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Distribution Valuation Media 245

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 3, 2024

techcrunch.com) Musk SpaceX could soon be the world's most valuable startup with a $350 billion valuation. theverge.com) Fidelity marked up its valuation of X. reuters.com) Economy Quits and job openings are down year-over-year. economy is still pretty dynamic, for now. calculatedriskblog.com) The U.S.

Math 148

Math Valuation Startup Economy 148

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

tomtunguz.com) Instacart continues to slash its valuation. wired.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers show the rollover in housing prices. (cnn.com) Big Tech is set to cut costs (and jobs) in 2023. nytimes.com) How Constellation Software is a $30b+ publicly-traded software holding company employing more than 25,000.

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243