Fri.Aug 02, 2024

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Friday links: a missed window

Abnormal Returns

Markets Markets fear the Fed has missed their window to cut rates. (sherwood.news) High beta stocks are rolling over. (allstarcharts.com) August historically not been a great month for the stock market. (carsongroup.com) The story of QXO ($QXO) is a great lesson for investors. (wsj.com) Trading The best trading system is one that works for you. (allstarcharts.com) Why setting stops is so important psychologically.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (August 3-4)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that a Federal district court in Texas has put a stay on the effective date of the Department of Labor’s (DoL’s) new Retirement Security Rule (aka “Fiduciary Rule 2.0”), which had been scheduled to become effective in September, and related amendments to prohibited transaction exemptions.

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MiB: Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI on Growth, Employment and Inflation Cycles

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. Achuthan met his mentor, Geoffrey H. Moore, at Columbia University in 1990; they formed ECRI with Anirvan Banerji in 1996. He serves on the board of governors for the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. In 2004, he co-authored Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Aug. 3-4)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that a Federal district court in Texas has put a stay on the effective date of the Department of Labor’s (DoL’s) new Retirement Security Rule (aka “Fiduciary Rule 2.0”), which had been scheduled to become effective in September, and related amendments to prohibited transaction exemptions.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Podcast links: signs of life

Abnormal Returns

The biz Some signs of life in the podcasting ad business. (radioink.com) The podcasting industry is home to some haves and a lot of have-nots. (wsj.com) A beginner's guide to starting a podcast. (bigtechnology.com) Business Benjamin Gilbert and David Rosenthal talk about how Microsoft ($MSFT) returned to market dominance. (acquired.fm) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk the business of nicotine with John Coogan, founder of Lucy Goods.

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More Trending

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Comments on July Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%. Construction employment increased 25 thousand and is now 645 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.

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The Value of WallStreetBets Investment Research Recommendations

Alpha Architect

Wallstreetbets has become an increasingly prominent source of investment research. Do their recommendations have value? The Value of WallStreetBets Investment Research Recommendations was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Paris Olympics Is Summer Davos for Wall Street Executives

Wealth Management

It’s unclear how many Wall Street staff below the C-suite level made it to the Games.

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From Soft Landing to Emergency Landing?

Discipline Funds

Just a week ago the market narrative was all about “soft landing”, but after Friday’s labor report the narrative is quickly shifting to “emergency landing” Odds of a September rate cut are now 100% and odds of a 50 bps cut went up to 75%. JP Morgan is calling for 50 bps cuts in both September and November as the labor market softens.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Savvy Wealth Closes Series A Funding, Raising $26.5M

Wealth Management

VC firm Canvas Ventures led the latest funding round. CEO Ritik Malhotra says the firm will use the money to expand Savvy’s software suite and strengthen its product and development team.

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Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective

Advisor Perspectives

As of July 31, 2024, the 10-year note was 357 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.

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Private Credit Sells Funds for Small Investors as Big Ones Balk

Wealth Management

Interval funds are being pitched to registered investment advisors as an easy-to-sell entry into direct lending.

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Interest Rate Cut Appears to Be on the Horizon

Advisor Perspectives

The Federal Reserve noted that inflation is moving closer to its 2% target after electing to hold rates steady at its July FOMC meeting.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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GPB Capital Founder Gentile Found Guilty in Ponzi-Like Fraud

Wealth Management

Gentile was found guilty of five counts, including securities fraud, wire fraud and conspiracy. He faces up to 20 years in prison.

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Back-to-School Money Skills- Essential Guidance for Parents and Children

MainStreet Financial Planning

As the back-to-school season approaches, it’s the perfect time to focus on your family’s financial education. In this edition, we’ve gathered valuable resources and tips to help you and your children start the school year strong, including must-read books, top online tools, informative podcasts, updates on financial literacy initiatives in California , etc.

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Report: Morgan Stanley OKs Advisors to Pitch Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Wealth Management

Morgan Stanley is the first wirehouse to let advisors actively solicit investments in spot bitcoin ETFs to certain clients, approving products from BlackRock and Fidelity.

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July Employment Report: 114 thousand Jobs, 4.3% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Employment Situation The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 114,000 , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 2,000, from +218,000 to +216,000, and the change for June was revised down by 27,000, from +206,000

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Apollo Reassures Investors on Alts After Athene Profit Drops

Wealth Management

Athene’s profit dropped 11% to $710 million.

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Vehicles Sales Increase to 15.8 million SAAR in July

Calculated Risk

The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for July this morning. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for July (red). Sales in July (15.82 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from June, and down 0.8% from July 2023. Sales in July were below the consensus forecast of 16.2 million.

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Budget impact on Investments

Truemind Capital

Here is what we are doing to efficiently manage investments after accounting for the budget changes. The Positive impacts : – Investments in Gold funds qualify for LTCG (Long Term Capital Gain) at 12.5% after 2 years of holding. Gold is an important asset class in a globally uncertain environment and should have a 10-15% portfolio allocation. – International investments through mutual funds also qualify for LTCG at 12.5% after 2 years of holding.

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Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand ).

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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What If You Owned No US Stocks?

Meb Faber Research

“I view diversification not only as a survival strategy but as an aggressive strategy because the next windfall might come from a surprising place.” – Peter Bernstein What is the single most universally held belief in all of investing? Think about it for a minute. Our vote would be “Investors MUST own US stocks.” It […] The post What If You Owned No US Stocks?

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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 37.1% YoY

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 36.6% YoY, but still down 30.6% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 37.1% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.

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Even Convertible Arbitrageurs Are Abandoning China

Advisor Perspectives

Global investors are gobbling up bonds that can be turned into stocks, feeling good about the prospects and return potentials of smaller companies.

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Get Hired Fast: Short-Term Courses in Finance with Guaranteed Employment Opportunities

International College of Financial Planning

Introduction to Short-Term Finance Courses with Job Guarantee The financial sector is one of the fastest-growing industries in India, offering a wide array of career opportunities for fresh graduates. However, breaking into the industry can be challenging without the right qualifications and skills. For students who have just completed their 12th grade, finding a course that provides practical knowledge, industry-relevant skills, and a job guarantee can be a game-changer.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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The Downside Of Derivative Income Funds

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

One of the reasons I have been negative on bonds with duration is that they take on equity beta and the correlation to equities is no longer reliable in my opinion making for less effective protection against equity volatility. Of course in the last few days, bonds with duration have rocketed higher.which I would cite as an example of equity volatility.

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The Great Rotation

Investing Caffeine

There are many styles of investing, and many ways to make money in the stock market. Just like the styles of men’s ties or women’s dresses come in and out of fashion, so too do the styles of investing. Some stick around for a long time, while other fads flop in short order, leading consumers to rotate into new fashions. I’m still waiting for my Bermuda shorts and pleated pants to come back in style.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Slumps to 2-Month Low

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 fell for a third straight week and dropped to its lowest close in almost two months on Friday. The index is currently 5.66% off its record high from July 16th, 2024 and is now up 12.73% year to date.

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