Fri.Dec 15, 2023

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Friday links: bearish events

Abnormal Returns

Rates Interest rates have peaked. (disciplinefunds.com) Why the stock and bond markets are actually in disagreement. (bloomberg.com) Charlie Munger Ten quotes from Charlie Munger including "Take a simple idea and take it seriously." (mastersinvest.com) Some more thoughts from the late Charlie Munger. (thefinancialbodyguard.com) Banks Citigroup ($C) has shuttered its municipal bond business.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (December 16-17)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that this week's round of public hearings on the Department of Labor's proposed new fiduciary rule featured fierce opposition from the brokerage and insurance industries – which, while unsurprising given those industries' stance against the DoL's previous fiduciary rule (which ultimately caused it to be struck down in court in 2018), nonetheless highlights the debat

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Podcast links: AI playlists

Abnormal Returns

The biz Spotify ($SPOT) is testing AI-powered playlists created from text prompts. (engadget.com) SiriusXM's ($SIRI) business has kind of stalled out. (variety.com) Lizzie O'Leary talks with Bloomberg's Ashley Carman about Spotify's ($SPOT) future. (slate.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks the impact of GLP-1 drugs with Zach Reitano CEO of the telehealth platform Ro and Dr.

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Rich Author, Poor Readers

A Wealth of Common Sense

Robert Kiyosaki wrote one of the most-read personal finance books of all time — Rich Dad, Poor Dad. I read it early on in my career. It never really did it for me but I can see why people latch onto the allegory he shares about learning the right financial habits. It’s a good thing to get people interested in personal finance because no one teaches you this stuff.

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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The Temptation of Factor Timing

Alpha Architect

The timing of equity factor premiums has a strong allure for investors because academic research has found that factor premiums are both time-varying and dependent on the economic cycle. The Temptation of Factor Timing was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.2% in November

Calculated Risk

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization In November, industrial production increased 0.2 percent , and manufacturing output rose 0.3 percent. The increase in manufacturing output was more than accounted for by a 7.1 percent bounceback in motor vehicles and parts production following the resolution of strikes at several major automakers.

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The Human Capital Domino Effect

Wealth Management

Building a secure future through personal and organizational balance.

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Going All In To Solve A Retirement Shortfall

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Unusual Whales (very worth following) Tweeted that "51% of Gen-Xers and 40% of Boomers have said they are 'significantly behind' their retirement, per CNBC." There were plenty of comments of course with quite a few speculating that the actual numbers are probably worse, which makes intuitive sense to me. Then, just for fun, Barron's piled on with Shame On Us, Gen-X.

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Cresset to Leave Broker Protocol in 2024

Wealth Management

After rejoining the protocol earlier this year, Cresset is doing an about face and will leave the agreement effective Jan. 1, suggesting to some legal observers an ownership transition may be on the horizon.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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The Holidays are a Great Time to Learn to Snowshoe!

Integrity Financial Planning

Snowshoeing is a fun, low-impact, and beginner-friendly winter sport. It’s a fantastic way to explore the snow-filled landscapes and get a heart-pumping workout. If you’re new to snowshoeing, don’t fret! Here’s your guide to getting started. Choosing Your Snowshoes The first step in learning how to snowshoe is selecting the right pair.

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TandemGrowth Financial Advisors: Technology As A Force Multiplier

Wealth Management

Jeff Bernier, president of $200 million AUM TandemGrowth Financial Advisors, says his team squeezes all the productivity possible from a selectively chosen tech stack.

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

Advisor Perspectives

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of December 1st, the index was at 10.200, up 0.868 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

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WealthStack Roundup: TIFIN AMP Partners With BetaNXT

Wealth Management

Also, Millennium Trust acquires NuView Trust Company and Reflection Analytics launches a digital platform for ESG audit and analysis.

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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Declines in December

Advisor Perspectives

Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing December survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell to -14.5 from 9.1 in November. This morning's reading was worse than the forecast of 2.0 and pushes the index back into contraction territory.

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The WealthStack Podcast: Bridging the Gap Between Asset Management and Financial Planning With Martin Tarlie

Wealth Management

Advisors are using Nebo to construct institutional quality, dynamic, real-time model portfolios that are personalized to each client, in a fraction of the time previously required.

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RBZ Jewellers IPO Review – GMP, Price, Details & More

Trade Brains

RBZ Jewellers IPO Review : The Indian Market is the largest consumer of Gold Jewellery in the world, slightly beating China with a market share of 28.8%. The Jewellery market is worth an astonishing 4.6 Lakh Cr, of which 85% is just Gold Jewellery. To cash in on the country’s love for gold, a small-scale gold jewellery maker is coming up with their IPO.

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RIA Roundup: Oakeson Steiner Takes $1.2B Practice to Carson Group

Wealth Management

In the latest RIA news, Carson Group, Lido Advisors, Snowden Lane Partners, Buckingham Strategic Wealth, Savvy Advisors and Cetera all announced deals this week.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Fundamental Analysis of Pricol Limited – Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis of Pricol : Stylish features on a vehicle speedometer and accessories are an essential part of any vehicle. The cost of replacing any vehicle part is better than replacing the whole vehicle. In this article, we will look into Fundamental Analysis of Pricol Limited, which is into manufacturing of Automobile parts. Fundamental Analysis of Pricol Ltd Company Overview In 1975, the company started manufacturing and dealing in automobile ancillary components such as driver informa

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Like Walmart Coming to Town

Wealth Management

The contradictions and competing priorities that come with the "professionalization" of the independent wealth management space underscored most of the conversations at the recent MarketCounsel Summit.

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Dec 15th COVID Update: Hospitalizations Increased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have more than tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

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Ask The Experts: Retirement Planning Opportunities Under the SECURE 2.0 Act

Wealth Management

The panel of experts will discuss and answer questions about the changes made by SECURE 2.

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Crafting Impact: Revenue Growth And Efficiency For Finance Professionals

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

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Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.5% to 2.6% Range

Calculated Risk

From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.5% (qoq ar) and boosted our Q4 domestic final sales growth forecast by 0.1pp to +2.4% (qoq ar). [Dec 15th estimate] emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.6 percent on December 14, up from 1.2 percent on December 7.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: 1.6% Below Record High

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 finished up 2.5% from last Friday, leading to the index's seventh consecutive week of gains. The index now sits just 1.61% below its record close from January 3, 2022 and is currently up 23.41% year to date.

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3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019 A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in November.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Industrial Production Rises in November

Advisor Perspectives

Industrial production rose 0.2% in November, less than the projected 0.3% increase, due to a bounce back in motor vehicles and parts production following the resolution of strikes at several automakers. Compared to one year ago, industrial production has declined 0.39%.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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LA Port Inbound Traffic Increased in November

Calculated Risk

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted several years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast ( recently the drought in Panama has slowed canal traffic ). Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nati

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The Stock-Bond Party Is Running Out of Punch

Advisor Perspectives

Stronger signaling from the Federal Reserve that interest rate cuts are on the menu in 2024 understandably sent both stocks and bonds soaring on Wednesday.

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How do Financial Advisors Help in the Accumulation of Retirement Income?

WiserAdvisor

According to a survey, a significant majority of Americans, approximately 80%, share the common notion that the point of working hard in your adult life is so you can enjoy a nice retirement. After years of dedicated labor and hard work, the prospect of a peaceful retirement appeals to everyone. Financial security is a fundamental element that can shape the quality of your post-employment years.