Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 22, 2024
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Below are my ten questions for 2025 (I've been doing this online every year for 20 years!). These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions. The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking.
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
DECEMBER 22, 2024
We're going to cover a lot of ground with this post. We'll start with a paper from Cambria with the amazing title of The Bear Market In Diversification. The TLDR is that the basic building blocks for how to build a diversified have lagged badly behind the S&P 500 for a long time causing frustration for some investors. Here's a great chart to illustrate the point.
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Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 22, 2024
The S&P 500 finished the week ending December 20 with a loss, down 1.99% from last Friday. The index is now up 25.05% year-to-date.
Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)
DECEMBER 22, 2024
By Matt Pais, MDRT Senior Content Specialist Every month, the MDRT Podcast delivers insights from members about how they handle challenges and changes in their practice. In 2024, these were the most-listened episodes. Enjoy, and thanks for listening!
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 22, 2024
Personal income ( excluding transfer receipts ) rose 0.4% in November and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
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Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 22, 2024
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 22, 2024
Markets Markets are always filled with contradictory data. (tker.co) Why are mortgage rates higher than when the Fed started lowering interest rates? (wsj.com) No one can consistently call market tops and bottoms. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Crypto Revolution be damned, Bitcoin is now just another asset class. (theatlantic.com) Microstrategy ($MSTR) fans have turned Michael Saylor into a celebrity/savior.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 22, 2024
Consumer sentiment continued to rise, according to the final December report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 2.2 points (2.2%) from November's final reading to 74.0. The latest reading was in line with the forecast.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 22, 2024
Also on the site No one is looking out for you when it comes to sports gambling. (abnormalreturns.com) You can now follow us on Bluesky. (bsky.app) Have you signed up for daily e-mail newsletter? Well, you should. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Five things to consider when reviewing your portfolio, including 'asset location.' (humbledollar.com) Valuation is a terrible stock market timing tool.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 22, 2024
Delivering the first cuts in interest rates since the early days of the pandemic was the easy part.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 22, 2024
In 20 years of managing money I have never witnessed more dismal sentiment for international stocks, value stocks and really valuations in general. Investors I come into contact with have all but given up on this stuff. I know you could have said the same thing the past 5-7 years or so but it feels like the dam truly broke this year. Investors are throwing in the towel.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 22, 2024
As the year comes to a close, we revisit some of the key market themes and moves for 2024 and the year ahead.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 22, 2024
From Brazil to South Korea, emerging-market central banks are forming a line of defense as a rising dollar pushes their currencies to multi-year lows.
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