Sun.Nov 12, 2023

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When will the Fed Cut Rates?

Calculated Risk

If we look at the "dot plot" from the September FOMC projections , the median projection is for the Fed Funds rate to decline to 5.125% in Q4 2024 (from the current 5.25% to 5.5% range). That is one 25bp rate cut in 2024. Goldman Sachs economists are projecting the first rate cut in Q4 2024: We continue to expect that rates cuts will start in 2024Q4 and proceed at a pace of 25bp per quarter BofA economists are still projecting one more rate hike, and then three 25bp cuts in 2024 starting in Q2 2

Economics 312
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Sunday links: cultivating your unique gifts

Abnormal Returns

Markets U.S. stocks have outperformed internationa; stocks for a decade now. (wsj.com) Close-end fund discounts are at historically high levels. (wealthmanagement.com) Why seasonality matters. (allstarcharts.com) Strategy What it going to happen to all those assets in money market fund when yields eventually fall? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Chances are, you don't need a bespoke portfolio.

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Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of November 12, 2023 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are down 5 and DOW futures are down 44 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $77.03 per barrel and Brent at $81.28 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $89, and Brent was at $96 - so WTI oil prices were down 13% year-over-year.

Economics 147
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week A five-step framework for reading market news. (tker.co) What does the S&P 493 tell us? (economist.com) This week was a good example why you should never be positioned for extremes. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Small and mid-cap stocks have badly lagged large caps. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Ray Dalio wants you to forget about the new book written about him and Bridgewater Associates.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Is The Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Will Housing Prices Fall During the Next Recession?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Jesse Livermore once said, “Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” Fair point. Human nature is the one constant across all market environments. On the other hand, Warren Buffett once said, “If past history was all that.

Marketing 137
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Building trust with younger clients by giving back

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Therese Panganiban You can find great benefits in embodying your values and championing social causes you genuinely believe in when reaching out to Generation Y and Z prospects and clients. Adriano Torreon , a four-year MDRT member from Bohol, Philippines, dedicates himself to helping underprivileged students complete their college education by channeling some of his commissions into scholarships.

Clients 101

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Best Banking Stocks With High FII Holdings – Top Stock Picks

Trade Brains

Best Banking Stocks With High FII Holdings : Banks are critical to the economy and necessary for individuals and businesses to thrive. The banking sector has benefited the most from India’s booming economy by lending loans, providing banking services, rural outreach, technology adoption, and so on. In this article, we will take a look at the Best Banking Stocks With High FII Holdings and deeply analyze their scale, financials and more.

Banking 59
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Q3 Active Management Review: Value Dominates

Advisor Perspectives

The third quarter was a more favorable environment for active managers in U.S. Large and Small Caps, Japan, Australia, and Canada equities, while being more challenging for Global, Global ex-U.S., Emerging Markets, Europe, UK and Long/Short managers.

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[cdata[ How to Host Thanksgiving Dinner on a Budget ]]

oXYGen Financial

![CDATA[ Thanksgiving is a time for gratitude, togetherness, and of course, delicious food. But hosting a Thanksgiving dinner can be a pricey affair, leaving many of us wondering if it's possible to create a memorable feast without breaking the bank. With the rise of inflation, many of us have seen our weekly grocery bills double, which leaves us wondering what will the price of Thanksgiving cost.

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Microsoft Record Leads $1.5 Trillion Nasdaq Surge

Advisor Perspectives

Wall Street’s so-called Magnificent Seven has been living up to its name again, but none more so than Microsoft Corp.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • A guide to the friends and patrons of Clarence and Ginni Thomas : These are the associates of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and his wife, Ginni, who have given gifts, made payments or otherwise supported the couple based on recent reporting from various news outlets. ( Washington Post ) • Befouling the Final Frontier : As humanity rushes back to space, we seem to be repeating some of the mistakes

Assets 130
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Wall Street Warns of Risks in Push to Rein In Home-Loan Banks

Advisor Perspectives

A push by US regulators to rein in the Federal Home Loan Banks risks casting broad ripples through the US financial system, increasing costs to banks by pulling a major force from the nation’s funding markets.

Banking 52
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Lining Up The Doves

Advisor Perspectives

The doves lined up last week guiding the S&P500 up 5.85%, marking the best week of performance for the year. A busy week of data began with the quarterly refunding announcement from the Treasury.

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Schwab Survey Reveals Strong Investor Preference for ETFs

Advisor Perspectives

New investors are overwhelmingly choosing ETFs as their investment vehicle of choice. Between June 13 and June 28, Charles Schwab conducted a comprehensive survey of 2,200 investors for its 2023 ETFs and Beyond Study.

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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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Six Metrics Light the Path to Sustainability for Emerging-Market Sovereigns

Advisor Perspectives

Just six metrics can effectively assess sovereign issuers’ sustainability and provide guidance for both issuers and investors.

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It Pays to Be Selective With Developed Market Equities

Advisor Perspectives

With less than two months left in 2023, this maybe another disappointing year for broad-based ex-US developed market equity funds. This includes a slew of passive exchange traded funds.