Fri.Jan 10, 2025

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (January 11–12)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the "Social Security Fairness Act" was signed into law this week, eliminating the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO) provisions, which previously reduced the Social Security benefits of individuals who worked in both "covered" (jobs for which they paid into the Social Security system) and "non-covered" (those in which they didn't,

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Bank of America Ramps Up New Wealth Division with Citi, UBS Alums

Wealth Management

BofA announced it hired Ed Riley and Jessica Mullin several days after unveiling its new advisory group for ultra-high-net-worth clients based out of its Merrill Wealth division.

Banking 112
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Comments on December Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. Earlier: December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demograp

Numbers 104
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MiB: Brian Hurst, ClearAlpha

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Brian Hurst , the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of ClearAlpha. Prior to founding ClearAlpha, Brian spent 21 years at AQR Capital Management as a portfolio manager, researcher, head of trading, and the firm’s first non-founding Partner. He was also Cliff Asness’ first hire at GSAM. Hurst was instrumental in designing and implementing AQR’s trading platform.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Private Credit: Upper Versus Lower Middle Market Lending

Alpha Architect

Given the similar net returns that UMM and LMM loans have delivered, allocators should consider diversifying across borrower size cohorts. Since LLM loans are somewhat riskier, careful due diligence should be performed in terms of a lenders credit loss history, fees/expenses, and use of leverage. Private Credit: Upper Versus Lower Middle Market Lending was originally published at Alpha Architect.

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New Year, New Financial Goals: Five Tips for Setting Yourself Up for Success in 2025

MainStreet Financial Planning

A quote from one of my favorite books, The Little Prince by Antoine de Saint-Exupery says, A goal without a plan is just a wish. As we enter 2025, its the perfect moment to take stock of your financial journey and map out your path for the year ahead. Whether you’re focused on building a retirement fund, saving for a big purchase, or simply improving your financial habits, setting clear, realistic goals and crafting a solid plan are the keys to success.

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Shifting Interest Rate Expectations Alter Wealth Managers' Alts Exit Plans

Wealth Management

A survey conducted in October by Ocorian found higher-for-longer rates are impacting investment hold period expectations.

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Things Change

The Better Letter

In July 1993, the Walt Disney Company issued $300 million 100-year “Sleeping Beauty bonds.” Those who were unenthused called them “Mickey Mouse bonds.” Or just plain goofy. They bore a 7.55 percent coupon with a July 15, 2093 maturity, callable in 2023 at $103.02, declining to 100 percent of face value after July 15, 2043. It was the first century-bond, at least in the U.S., since 1954, and beat Coca-Cola’s issuance of 100-year, no-call bonds by a day.

Retail 73
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7 Steps to Define and Align Your Money Values for Success

Clever Girl Finance

If someone asked what your money values were, would you know how to answer? Or would you find yourself searching for a response and coming up blank? Our values are a key part of who we are, yet we often don’t take the time to intentionally think about, define, and understand themespecially when it comes to money. For anyone looking to transform their relationship with finances, figuring out your money principles is a great first step.

Ethics 52
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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Snowden Lane Claws Back Majority Stake from Private Equity Owner

Wealth Management

Two-thirds of the firm is now owned by remaining shareholders, including advisors and employees.

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Mythbusting TikTok Tax Advice

Harness Wealth

Tax advice is a common topic on social media platforms like TikTok. Influencers promise easy ways to secure tax deductions, simplifying complex ideas into bite-sized claims that gloss over important details in the process. In this article, well separate the facts from the fiction regarding these social media claims, highlighting the difference between popular and professional tax advicea difference that can have profound consequences when dealing with the Internal Revenue Service.

Taxes 52
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The Big Four Recession Indicators

Advisor Perspectives

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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Goldman on Employment Report and FOMC

Calculated Risk

A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting a 478k gain in household employment and an unchanged labor force participation rate, at 62.5%. Following this mornings data, we now expect the FOMC to deliver two 25bp cuts this year (vs. three previously) at its June and December meetings, followed by another cut in June 2026, to

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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On Bubble Watch

Advisor Perspectives

Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.

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December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November.

Retail 59
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Cerulli: Financial Advisors to Sell More Retirement Plans as Micro DC Market Grows

Wealth Management

A survey of DC recordkeepers found a large majority expect to see more financial advisors selling 401(k) plans with less than $5 million in assets.

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Validea’s Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks – January 2025

Validea

The S&P 500 has had a big run in recent years, led by the biggest tech stocks. But investors often forget that there are many other companies in the index besides the biggest name. And many of those names offer significant value based on their fundamentals. Using a screening system that incorporates 22 different investment strategies – modeled after legendary investors like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, as well as proven academic research – Validea has identified ten S&P 50

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Crafting Impact: Revenue Growth And Efficiency For Finance Professionals

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Falls 1.5% Following Friday Jobs Report

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 fell over 1.5% on Friday following the release of December's stronger than anticipated jobs report. The index is now 4.32% below its record close from December 6th, 2024 and is down 0.71% year to date.

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A single-market rising tide fails to lift all stock boats.

SEI

Within the equity markets, corporate earnings have surprised to the upside and have shown strength outside of big tech.

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Treasury Yields Snapshot: January 10, 2025

Advisor Perspectives

The yield on the 10-year note ended January 10, 2025 at 4.77%, its highest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.40%, its highest level since July 2024.

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Did the recent market correction bother you?

Truemind Capital

In the recent market correction, I observed many finfluencers and mutual fund distributors cajoling their over-concerned audience & customers by giving them reasons regarding why the markets will bounce back soon and why they should think of the long term and not worry too much. And this is when the markets didn’t even correct much – just around 10%.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: December Employment

Advisor Perspectives

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.

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Barron's Gets The Memo

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Our conversation here might be getting some mainstream traction from Barron's with the article The 60/40 Portfolio Isnt Doing Its Job. It May Be Time to Ditch Bonds. That would have been a more timely prognosis in 2018 or so but that's ok. While anyone having meaningful exposure to bond duration up to this point has suffered, what is likely to happen going forward?

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Who’s Afraid of Rising Treasury Yields? Not Stocks

Advisor Perspectives

Stock investors have been watching the runup in US Treasury yields with considerable alarm of late.

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Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.8% to 2.7% Range

Calculated Risk

From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%.

Sales 59
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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Janus Henderson Takes CLO-Tracking Fund to Europe After US Win

Advisor Perspectives

After cementing its position as the dominant player in the US for a niche but highly lucrative investment vehicle, Janus Henderson is looking to try its luck in Europe.

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Friday links: unimportant differences

Abnormal Returns

Markets The equity risk premium is negative. (bloomberg.com) The seven pillars of market bubbles. (acadian-asset.com) Crypto Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ($FBTC) how has $21.4 billion one year in. (etf.com) More companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. (nytimes.com) Did you know Bhutan has a strategic allocation to cryptocurrencies?

Economy 147
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Big-Tech Love - And Fear - Fuels Record Boom for Invesco’s ETFs

Advisor Perspectives

Invesco Ltd.’s ETF lineup absorbed a record amount of cash in 2024 from at least two classes of investors: those chasing AI-driven gains, and those shying away from big tech’s sway.

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