Fri.Oct 06, 2023

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Friday links: foolishly reckless

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Defining what you will invest in, versus what you will not invest in, is important. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why simplicity in investing can help reduce errors. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Apple Apple's ($AAPL) USB-C transition is going to be rocky. (macworld.com) A review of the Apple ($AAPL) iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max. (sixcolors.com) Vaccines How research into mRNA vaccinations very nearly didn't happen.

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Historical S&P 500 Return Calculator

The Big Picture

I have been playing with Nick’s S&P 500 calculator , and it’s pretty damned, cool. He used data from Robert Shiller’s website and created his own interface going all the way back to 1871. (The default assumes your dividends are reinvested). You can see why RWM hired Nick as our Chief Data Scientist… The post Historical S&P 500 Return Calculator appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Podcast links: audiobook ambitions

Abnormal Returns

The biz Spotify ($SPOT) has big audiobook ambitions. (nytimes.com) Amazon ($AMZN) is shuttering its Amp audio app. (theverge.com) On the layoffs at Pushkin Industries. (nypost.com) Business Derek Thompson talks with Matthew Ball and Julia Alexander about the state of Disney ($DIS) today. (theringer.com) Roben Farzad talks with Angela Romero and Matthew Boyle about MBA grads buying companies.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (October 7-8)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent survey found that clients across several countries who work with a CFP professional have better outcomes on a range of measures compared to those working with other advisors or no advisor at all, suggesting that the potential benefits of gaining CFP certification can accrue not only to the advisor themselves, but also to their clients.

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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Zuckerberg vs OpenAI

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Alex Kantrowitz, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the big tech landscape, AI competition, augmented reality, Michael Lewis and SBF, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods! Listen here: Apple podcasts Spotify podcasts Google podcasts Everywhere else!

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Why Are Interest Rates Spiking?

A Wealth of Common Sense

The bond market continues to be even crazier than the stock market. We’ve witnessed a massive move in long-term bond yields these past couple of weeks and months. Yields on the 10, 20 and 30 year Treasury were all up in the neighborhood of 60 basis points over the past 16 trading sessions. Yields are up 1% or more on each of these bond maturities since the end of June.

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The Word on WealthTech for October 2023

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy's co-founder and CEO provides his take on the most important wealthtech news of the last month.

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Comments on September Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio were both unchanged, and the unemployment rate was also unchanged at 3.8%. Leisure and hospitality gained 96 thousand jobs in September.

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Will Dianne Feinstein’s Legal Drama Continue Following Her Death?

Wealth Management

The multiple active lawsuits involving the senator's late husband's estate will likely be paused while her own estate is probated.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased 1.0% in September; Down 3.9% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Minimal Increase in August Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 1.0% in September from August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 214.3, down 3.9% from a year ago. “September auction sales bolstered prices through the channel,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive.

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Top RIAs on The Current Investing Climate: Cerity Partners

Wealth Management

Cerity Partners CIO Ben Pace likes core fixed income while underweighting U.S. large cap equities.

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Things Don’t Make Sense

The Irrelevant Investor

This tweet last week caught my attention. Current situation: 1. Stocks are falling like a recession is coming 2. Oil prices are rising like there's no recession in sight 3. Interest rates are rising like we have 10% inflation 4. Gold is falling like inflation is gone 5. Housing prices are rising like rates are… — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 27, 2023 It’s been a weird couple of month.

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Top RIAs on The Current Investing Climate: Mercer Advisors

Wealth Management

Mercer Advisors CIO Don Calcagni likes non-U.S. equities, value stocks and private credit.

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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Make Your Money Work for Your Happiness, Not the Other Way Around

Integrity Financial Planning

While some people idealize retirement as a time of leisure, many people often view retirement as a time of financial constraint and worry. For these reasons, you might think that your money and savings will dictate your happiness. But what if we changed the narrative? What if retirement was a time when your money worked for your happiness instead of requiring you to sacrifice that happiness?

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WealthStack Roundup: Apex To Launch Fractional Fixed Income Platform

Wealth Management

Also, Morgan Stanley launches a charitable giving program, Vyzer raises $6.3 million in seed funding and Modern Life Adds John Hancock strategies.

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Weekend Thoughts – SBF, Interest Rates & Jobs

Discipline Funds

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) SBF is not an effective altruist. Michael Lewis has been a literary hero of mine for decades. Liars Poker was a book that both excited me about getting into the financial services industry and also made me deeply question the motives of people in the financial services industry. So I was surprised this week to see Lewis doing a book tour and framing Sam Bankman Fried as a good person who just flew too close to the sun.

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The WealthStack Podcast: Delivering Better, Data-Driven Outcomes for Clients with Joe Stensland

Wealth Management

BridgeFT CEO Joe Stensland talks APIs and wealthtech-as-a-service.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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AAR: September Rail Carloads and Intermodal Increased Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. As is usually the case, in September some rail sectors did better than others. There were clearly some good signs. For example, U.S. intermodal originations in September 2023 averaged 252,224 containers and trailers per week, the most for any month since October 2022.

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RIA Week-End Roundup: Snowden Lane Adds $200M in Assets with UBS Team

Wealth Management

Snowden Lane adds UBS duo with $200M in assets, PCIA moves into Memphis, another rebrand is announced and women are named to key roles at Choreo, Lido and Carson.

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September Employment Report: 336 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality; government; health care; professional, scientific, and technical services; and social assistance. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 79,000, from +157,000 to +236,000, and the change for August was revised up by 40,000, from +1

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Top RIAs on The Current Investing Climate: Fidelis Capital Partners

Wealth Management

Fidelis Capital Pattners Investment Research Analyst Nick Smith likes Japan and expanding the firm's levels of interest rate risk.

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Crafting Impact: Revenue Growth And Efficiency For Finance Professionals

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

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Where Is the U.S. Dollar Headed?

Advisor Perspectives

Expectations of "higher for longer" U.S. interest rates has helped drive the dollar's recent rally.

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Top RIAs on The Current Investing Climate: Cresset

Wealth Management

Cresset CIO Jack Ablin likes private credit, U.S. large caps and public and private equity.

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Oct 6th COVID Update: Deaths and Hospitalizations Increased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Recently hospitalizations have tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations had been increasing (down this week) but are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

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Top RIAs on The Current Investing Climate: Crescent Grove Advisors

Wealth Management

Co-CIO Andrew Krei likes higher quality fixed income, venture capital and private equity, while avoiding AI.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September; Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales at New Cycle Low in September

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

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Top RIAs on The Current Investing Climate: NewEdge Wealth

Wealth Management

CIO Cameron Dawson is maintaining a focus on quality, especially with large-cap high-quality biotech equities.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Snaps 4-Week Losing Streak

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 snapped its 4-week losing streak after finishing up 0.48% from last Friday. The index is currently up 12.67% year to date and is 10.18% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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