Fri.Oct 13, 2023

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National Association of Realtors Is Imploding

The Big Picture

My buddy Jonathan Miller does not hesitate to call out the weasels who represent those who work in his industry: NAR Proves That Trade Groups Aren’t Infallible With an appalling culture of secrecy maintained by wildly overpaid executives (I believe their CEO is paid close to $3 million per year), NAR seems to be imploding right now. These three prominent real estate firms are backing away from the management cesspool that has severely damaged the National Association of Realtors (NAR) brand.

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Friday links: position sizing

Abnormal Returns

Companies What now for Microsoft ($MSFT) after closing the Activision Blizzard deal? (theringer.com) The customer experience at Amazon ($AMZN) is getting worse. (ritholtz.com) Is Apple ($AAPL) making it too hard to do stuff on the Mac? (macworld.com) Sports gambling Disney ($DIS) wanted no part of sports gambling, now its all in. (wsj.com) Sports books are embracing novelty bets.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (October 14-15)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with a new study from Herbers & Company that provides insight into the financial planning services that consumers demand the most, and which services financial advisory firms offer the most often. The study also identified factors that separated firms experiencing the greatest organic growth from others, which include offering a comprehensive suite of services, having a higher 'close' ra

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Podcast links: deepening deepfakes

Abnormal Returns

The biz The bots have come for podcasting. (semafor.com) Rogue AI voices are already out in the wild. (nytimes.com) We don't have great defenses for deepfakes. (variety.com) Companies Benjamin Gilbert and David Rosenthal talk about the latest iteration of Nvidia ($NVDA). (acquired.fm) Logan Bartlett talks AI with Dario Amodei, co-founder and CEO of Anthropic.

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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The New Kings of Wall Street

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jan Van Eck, and Andrew Beer discuss the bond market, the national debt, private-credit, alts, managed futures, the Sam Bankman-Fried trial, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods! Listen here: Apple podcasts Spotify podcasts Google podcasts Everywhere else.

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The Rise of High Net Worth Investors in Pre-IPO Securities

Wealth Management

Why have wealthy investors surged as the leading buy-side participants in this market segment?

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Trend-Following Filters – Part 7

Alpha Architect

This article examines four digital filters commonly used for trend-following: moving average linear weighted moving average exponential smoothing time series momentum Trend-Following Filters – Part 7 was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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The Rising Number of High Net Worth Investors in Pre-IPO Securities

Wealth Management

Why have wealthy investors surged as the leading buy-side participants in this market segment?

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 2.4% YoY; New Listings Down 3.2% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Sabrina Speianu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 7, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 2.4%. During the past week, we observed the 16th successive drop in the number of homes available for sale when compared to the previous year.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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RIA Roundup: Sunshine Private Wealth Joins Steward Partners from Hightower

Wealth Management

Steward Partners adds the first team to its IAR-only channel, Allworth Financial names a new CEO and other news from Wealth Enhancement Group, EP Wealth Advisors, Kestra PWS, Gaddis Premier Wealth Advisors and Pitcairn.

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Middle-Class Hourly Wages as of September 2023

Advisor Perspectives

I've updated this series to include the September release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $49,111, down 8.2% from over 50 years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.

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Ten More Advisors Exit Goldman Sachs PFM

Wealth Management

The latest defections include three advisors and an analyst who joined Kestra’s Private Wealth Services unit.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: 2nd Straight Week in the Green

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 posted gains for a second straight week despite weak performance during the latter part of the week. The index is currently up 13.17% year to date and is 9.77% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Bonds Are Becoming More Volatile Than Stocks by Most on Record

Wealth Management

“Volatility is off the chart,” said Ben Emons, a senior portfolio manager at NewEdge Wealth. “People are trading bonds like stocks.

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Free-Money Era Ends With Worst Bond Sell-off In U.S. History

Validea

The losses sustained by the U.S. bond market over the last few years are the worst in the nation’s recorded history, according to research from strategists at Bank of America that is cited in an article in Bloomberg. While some of the data from 200-plus years ago may be less than accurate, it’s still a startling statistic, and drives home what a significant impact inflation and high interest rates had on the bond market.

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High FII Holding Stocks Under Rs 100 To Add To Your Watchlist

Trade Brains

High FII holding Stocks Under Rs 100 : When it comes to investing in the stock market, we always try to find the most intricate balance between affordability & sustainability. We are always on the lookout for Companies that have the highest growth and the best management. At the same time, we also hope to find them at throw away prices, so we can enter in its journey, at the earliest.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls Sharply Amid Inflation Concerns

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment fell sharply this month amid growing inflation concerns. The October preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 63.0, down 5.1 (-7.5%) from the September final. This morning's reading was below the forecast of 67.2.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Q3 GDP Tracking: High 3s

Calculated Risk

From BofA: Overall, the data flow since our last weekly pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate from 3.7% to 3.8% q/q saar. [Oct 13th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.7% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales growth forecast also unchanged at +2.4%. [Oct 10th estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.1 percent on October 10

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Retire Early, Live Slow: Navigating the Transition to a Leisurely Lifestyle

Gen Y Planning

The traditional view of what retirement should be is quickly fading in the rearview mirror as Gen X and Baby Boomers are flipping the script on what your post-career lifestyle can look like. An increasing percentage of pre-retirees are now planning to retire early (at age 62 or earlier), and it’s becoming more common to see people opting for an alternate lifestyle once they do take the retirement plunge.

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Oct 13th COVID Update: Deaths and Hospitalizations Decreased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Recently hospitalizations have almost tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

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Options Are the Hottest Trade on Wall Street

Advisor Perspectives

Crypto may have grabbed headlines last year, but the talk on Wall Street these days is all about options.

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Crafting Impact: Revenue Growth And Efficiency For Finance Professionals

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased 0.2% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 October U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, and year-over-year comparisons were mostly positive, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 October. 1-7 October 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022): • Occupancy: 67.8% (-0.2%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.19 (+5.4%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$110.68 (+5.2%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

Advisor Perspectives

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of September 29th, the index was at 13.184, up 1.582 from the previous week.

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3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September A brief excerpt: Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release September existing home sales next week on Thursday, October 19th, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 3.94 million SAAR, down from 4.04 million in August.

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Higher for longer settles in

SEI

Jim Smigiel, SEI's Chief Investment Officer, discusses the third quarter industry report.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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US Consumer Inflation Expectations Jump to a Five-Month High

Advisor Perspectives

US consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations rose sharply in early October, driving a steep deterioration in Americans' views of their finances as well as sentiment.

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19 Of The Best Night Shift Jobs To Earn Extra Cash

Clever Girl Finance

Are you fed up with the 9 to 5 grind? Do you need to earn some extra cash or find a job that fits around your daily commitments? Night shift jobs may be the solution you’re looking for, and the good news is there are lots of opportunities out there and we’ve got several to share. So keep reading! Table of contents Who are night shift jobs suitable for?

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Q3 2023 Earnings Preview: Do You Believe in Bad Omens?

Advisor Perspectives

Breaking a mirror, walking under a ladder, and a black cat crossing your path have all been seen as bad omens.

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