Fri.Jul 26, 2024

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PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 5.3% YoY in June

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through June 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.1% year-over-year in June, down from 5.4% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 5.3% YoY in June , down from 5.5% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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Advisor Sentiment Index: Confidence In the Economy Rises

Wealth Management

Financial advisors are still bullish on the prospects for the U.S. stock market, according to WealthManagement.

Economy 291
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"Snow Belt to Sun Belt Migration: End of an Era?"

Calculated Risk

Here is new working paper from Sylvain Leduc and Daniel J. Wilson at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Snow Belt to Sun Belt Migration: End of an Era Given climate change projections for coming decades of increasing extreme heat in the hottest U.S. counties and decreasing extreme cold in the coldest counties, our findings suggest the “pivoting” in the U.S. climate-migration correlation over the past 50 years is likely to continue, leading to a reversal of the 20th century Snow Belt to Su

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The WealthStack Podcast: CTO Think Tank Insights with Michelle Feinstein

Wealth Management

Salesforce's Michelle Feinstein discusses the findings from the 2024 CTO Think Tank hosted at Wealth Management EDGE.

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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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Personal Income increased 0.2% in June; Spending increased 0.3%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $50.4 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in June , according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $37.7 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.6 billion (0.3 percent).

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LPL Has 'No Plans' to Change Cash Sweep Pricing

Wealth Management

CEO Dan Arnold said the firm “can only speculate” on why other industry peers announced changes to their sweep pricing during its Q2 earnings call this week.

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More Trending

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When the PE Tempo Slows, Will RIA Sellers Miss a Beat? Not Necessarily.

Wealth Management

Firms that have developed a structure to spur organic growth, not just through acquisitions, are the most likely to retain or boost their value.

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Friday links: witnessing reality

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Our brains weren't built for investing. (safalniveshak.com) The small cap bounce back will make stock picking fun again. (scheplick.com) Fund management Is Vanguard, and by extension Blackrock ($BLK), getting too big for its own good? (riabiz.com) The Russell 2000 is a flawed index. (wsj.com) Manager selection is becoming more transparent. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) Companies Alphabet ($GOOGL) makes more in interest income than the majority of the S&P 500 makes in earnings.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (July 27-28)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that Charles Schwab's latest RIA benchmarking study shows that firms saw significant AUM growth in 2023, thanks in part to strong equity market performance, but also thanks to organic growth initiatives that brought in additional assets from new and existing clients.

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The 11th Commandment

A Wealth of Common Sense

There’s an old saying that people don’t attend church on Sundays expecting to hear an eleventh commandment. You go to reinforce what you’ve already learned or learn it all over again. And so it is with the basic principles of finance. Jason Zweig once wrote the following: My job is to write the exact same thing between 50 and 100 times a year in such a way that neither my editors nor my readers will ever.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators

Advisor Perspectives

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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Should you invest in Gold or Silver post the Budget?

Truemind Capital

After a sparkling rally in Gold & Silver over the last few years, many investors have become interested in the glitter of the precious metals. Gold & Silver are up by ~23% & ~28% y-o-y (as of 30 Jun’24). In 2018, we decided to have a Gold allocation of ~15% to all our client’s portfolios owing to macroeconomic developments. What has been driving Gold & Silver prices & are these factors sustainable?

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.1% in June

Advisor Perspectives

Personal income ( excluding transfer receipts ) rose 0.2% in June and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.8% year-over-year.

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The Negative Impact of Crowding on Active Fund Performance

Alpha Architect

The shrinking pool of public companies across which active funds can diversify their holdings, increases the risk of crowding, which the research we reviewed shows negatively impacts performance. That provides yet another reason for investors to choose to avoid playing the loser’s game of active management. The Negative Impact of Crowding on Active Fund Performance was originally published at Alpha Architect.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Optimizing your in-house investment team

SEI

Evaluate the risks, tradeoffs, and opportunities to determine the right investment team structure for your organization.

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What Problem Are They Trying To Solve?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Risk Parity has intrigued me since I first heard about it however many years ago. The very simplistic definition is weighting the assets by how much risk they have although I might argue the idea is more about weighting volatility than risk but either way. Often, in order to have the bond sleeve have the same risk (or volatility) as the equity sleeve, the bond sleeve would need to be leveraged up significantly.

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Stepping Into Success With Medicare Supplements With Greg Etchison and Scott Wilson

NAIFA Advisor Today

Greg Etchison is an experienced professional in the Medicare supplement business. With a career spanning over 25 years in the healthcare industry, he also has extensive experience across major carriers. Greg is passionate about educating people about healthcare options and optimizing coverage for seniors. He is a leading voice in Medicare supplement education, guiding individuals through the complexities of healthcare.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Falls for Second Straight Week

Advisor Perspectives

For the first time in over three months, the S&P 500 fell for a second straight week as it finishing down 0.83% from last Friday. The index is currently up 16.10% year to date and has recorded a new all-time high 38 times this year.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.

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The case for investing in US and Japanese equity markets. How should investors position their global portfolios?

Truemind Capital

The S&P 500 has reached record highs this year, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has climbed to its highest levels in three decades. Despite global uncertainties, the US and Japanese stock markets have been thriving. Through this article, let us understand the factors behind the rally and the outlook for these markets. So, what’s driving the new peaks?

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops to 8-Month Low

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment dropped to an 8-month low in July according to the final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index fell 1.8 points (-2.6%) from June's final reading to 68.2. The latest reading was below the forecast of 66.0.

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Texas Court Stays DOL Fiduciary Rule

Wealth Management

The court agreed that the Biden-era version of the fiduciary was structurally similar to the Obama-era rule. However, consumer advocates argue that plaintiffs are “forum-shopping” for sympathetic courts.

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Goldman Sachs Makes Bigger Bet on $129 Billion Muni ETF Market

Advisor Perspectives

Goldman Sachs Asset Management is launching four new municipal-bond exchange-traded funds, adding to the $129 billion corner of the state and local government debt market.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Election Surprise Is Something New, Not 1968 Redux

Carson Wealth

President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, although the endorsement does not necessarily mean she will win the nomination. The change in the Democratic ticket does not change our fundamental view of the election, which we discussed at length in our recently released Midyear Outlook 2024: Eyes on the Prize.

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PCE Inflation Rises 2.5% in June, As Expected

Advisor Perspectives

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation cooled further in June, dropping to its slowest pace in four months. The PCE price index, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 0.1% from May and was up 2.5% year-over-year. Both readings were consistent with their respective forecasts.

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Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in June

Advisor Perspectives

With the release of June's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.13% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.04% nominal and 0.51% real.

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Jamie Dimon’s Crack at Shadowy Proxy Firms Is Resonating

Advisor Perspectives

Pressure is again mounting on the proxy advisory firms that recommend how investors should vote on executive pay and other corporate matters. Regulators need to remember who should be prioritized here — investors, not company management.

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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Want Good Value on a Home? Check Out San Francisco

Advisor Perspectives

San Francisco has been the subject of a lot of negative press over the past several years. It was hit hard by the pandemic exodus from cities, the shift to work from home that emptied offices, the crime and homelessness that marred its national reputation, and pledges by corporate leaders such as Elon Musk to relocate their company headquarters elsewhere.

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Western Influence

Advisor Perspectives

Western demand and monetary policy are having an important impact on economic prospects for the Asia-Pacific region.

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Every Dividend Investor Needs This in Their Portfolio

Advisor Perspectives

I almost exclusively talk about stocks here in Dividend Digest because dividends are at the root of my strategy. But most income investing includes some level of exposure to debt.

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Don’t Fight the Tape. The Market Is on Small Caps.

Advisor Perspectives

The big story making the rounds this summer is the spike in the small-cap Russell 2000 since the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which shocked the market by printing 0.0% month-over-month in June.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g