Wed.Dec 06, 2023

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Personal finance links: no secret tricks

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Morgan Housel and Doug Boneparth discuss Charlie Munger's legacy. (open.spotify.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk all things retirement with Dan Haylett. (morningstar.com) Retirement The case for (and against) taking Social Security early. (humbledollar.com) Why some people choose to come out of retirement. (humbledollar.com) How many more years do you have to live (on average)?

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ATM: Investing Skill vs. Luck 

The Big Picture

 Investing Skill vs. Luck with Michael J. Mauboussin, Counterpoint Global (Dec 6, 2023) Is it better to be lucky or good? How much of a role does luck pay in investing? And how can you tell the difference between chance and skill? In this episode of At the Money, I speak with Michael Mauboussin. ~~~ About Michael J. Mauboussin: Michael Mauboussin is head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Investing 273
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Wednesday links: the dull game

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Why investors may regret earning 5% on cash. (allstarcharts.com) The more room you can put between yourself and your investments, the better. (yield-to-maturity.beehiiv.com) Why investors are attracted to low probability games. (behaviouralinvestment.com) Technology Google ($GOOGL) has finally unveiled Gemini, its new AI model. (venturebeat.com) Eight charts that explain 2023 including the rise of the chatbot.

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When Does A Financial Coach Need To Register As An Investment Adviser? The “ABCS” Test To Determine Status

Nerd's Eye View

Over the past several years, the financial services industry has undergone a tremendous evolution in how financial advisers deliver and charge for their services. While commission-based models remain in use, fee-for-service models (including AUM, hourly, retainer, and subscription) have become increasingly popular. And because many service offerings have traditionally focused on areas like investments and securities recommendations, there has been little debate about the need to register as an a

Investing 245
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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The Charlie Munger Manifesto (via Vishal)

The Big Picture

The Charlie Munger Manifesto / PDF The post The Charlie Munger Manifesto (via Vishal) appeared first on The Big Picture.

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10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My mid-week morning plane reads: • The Fed Matters Less Than You Think : Listen, I’m not saying the Fed’s rate hikes had no bearing on inflation. It certainly helped slow hot sectors of the economy like the housing market. But their actions have mattered far less than you think during this bizarre pandemic-induced economic cycle. ( A Wealth of Common Sense ) • The Takeaways Two Years After ‘Transitory’ Timed Out : Whether or not you choose to use that word, price pressures weren’t permanent. ( F

Economy 208
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 1, 2023. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.

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Welcome to the Jungle: Mark Hurley Says the Party’s Over For Wealth Management

Wealth Management

The independent wealth management space is becoming less a friendly club and more a pitiless jungle, with big firms squeezing smaller competitors, poaching talent and where organic growth, not M&A, will drive firm value.

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1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019 A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in November.

Marketing 114
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Americans Need More Than $1M to Feel Wealthy

Wealth Management

New research from Edelman Financial Engines found 67% of Americans need more than $1 million to feel wealthy, while more than half say social media has negatively impacted saving.

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Mike Tyson Would be a Financial Planning Genius

Advisor Perspectives

If Mike Tyson were speaking to a group of investors, what he may have been saying is that everyone has a financial plan until life throws a “punch.

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Navigating Markets with Precision: Fidelity's Five-Step Investment Process Unveiled

Wealth Management

Celso Munoz, portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments, shares a comprehensive approach to enhancing risk-adjusted returns in the dynamic world of fixed income investments.

Investing 111
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The Total Return Roller Coaster

Advisor Perspectives

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $14,794 for an annualized real return of 7.86%.

Economics 105
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Truck-Stop Billionaire Fights Warren Buffett to Increase $18 Billion Fortune

Wealth Management

The lawsuit between the Haslam family and Warren Buffett's Berskshire Hathaway hinges on obscure accounting rules the family claims could cost them more than $1 billion.

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Gundlach: Deficits, Recessions, Unemployment and the Impending Crisis

Advisor Perspectives

The federal deficit is already high at 6% of GDP. But if a recession hits – as Jeffrey Gundlach fears will happen next year – unemployment will rise, and the deficit and the interest the government pays on it will cripple the economy.

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RIAs Are Providing More Than Just a Paycheck to Keep Their Talent

Wealth Management

An employee value proposition may be the single most important tool in the war for talent, says Schwab’s Lisa Salvi, but professional development is gaining relevance.

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Animal Spirits: The Ben Carlson Top

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Nuveen and Kaplan Schweser: See here for more information on investing with Nuveen See here for more information on Level 1-3 CFA prep courses On today’s show, we discuss: Full transcript from CNBCs “Charlie Munger: A Life of Wit and Wisdom” Should we believe Americans when they say the economy is bad?

Economy 83
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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Jim Dickson on Lessons Learned at Sanctuary Wealth

Wealth Management

The former Sanctuary Wealth CEO opens up about the mistakes he made at the helm of the firm, which RIA founders can learn from.

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How Visual Aids Grow Your Business

Advisor Perspectives

How do you get financial information to make sense to people who aren’t numbers-minded? How do you become the advisor who helps complicated things make sense without making people feel stupid or overwhelmed?

Numbers 85
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Maybe It’s Better If US Bonds Were Boring Again

Wealth Management

The heightened concerns about fiscal profligacy and rapid degloblization that rocked Treasury securities now seem like a hallucination.

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Trade Deficit increased to $64.3 Billion in October

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $64.3 billion in October , up $3.1 billion from $61.2 billion in September, revised October exports were $258.8 billion, $2.6 billion less than September exports. October imports were $323.0 billion, $0.5 billion more than September imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Focused on the Future: Connecting Advisory Firms with Next-Gen Talent At HBCUs

Wealth Management

Dr. Sylvia Rose and Dr. Curtis Kidd Telemaque provide thoughtful insights on how RIA can best partner with HBCUs and engage with a diverse talent pool.

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q3 Flow of Funds

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 thousand, up from 218 thousand last week. • 12:00 PM, Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

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401(k) Real Talk Episode 88: December 6, 2023

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussion about retirement income, PEPs, investing options, job dissatisfaction and the word of the year.

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Heavy Truck Sales Increased in November, up 5% YoY

Calculated Risk

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for November. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the November 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 70
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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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How a Fossilized T. Rex Sparked Family Friction in an Estate

Wealth Management

Suspicious conditions surrounding a second will of Darlene Williams lead to claims of undue influence.

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ADP: Private Employment Increased 103,000 in November

Calculated Risk

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 103,000 Jobs in November; Annual Pay was Up 5.6% Private sector employment increased by 103,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 5.6 percent year-over-year, according to the November ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).

Economy 70
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ETFs with the Best Returns over the Past Five Years

Wealth Management

Funds focused on semiconductors were among the best-performing over the last five years.

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