Thu.Dec 07, 2023

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Thursday links: embracing imperfection

Abnormal Returns

Rates 10-year Treasury yields are down nearly 100bp from their peak. (axios.com) 30-year mortgage rates have dropped from 8% back to 7%. (housingwire.com) Companies P&G ($PG) is still writing down the value of Gillette. (wsj.com) What phrases and words companies stood out in conference calls in 2023? (ft.com) VC SimpleClosure, a start-up that helps other start-ups wind down their operations, is doing a booming business.

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My morning train WFH reads: • How much should it cost to sell a house? Your real estate agent may be charging too much. Why should homebuyers and sellers pay for services they neither want nor use? It’s like being forced to pay a travel agent commission when booking a flight directly online. ( USA Today ) • Signs of a Weakening Job Market, in Five Charts : Openings and quits data could give clues to the direction of hiring and the economy. ( Wall Street Journal ) see also Pay Thousands to

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Longform links: acting extroverted

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "The Kingdom, The Power, and The Glory: American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism" by Tim Alberta. (politico.com) A Q&A with Sam Wasson author of the new book "The Path to Paradise: A Francis Ford Coppola Story." (insidehook.com) Venture capital No one should be surprised by the drama surrounding OpenAI after learning about its origins.

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Introducing “At The Money”

The Big Picture

I’m very excited to tell you about my new podcast: At the Money. Each week, we are going to spend 10 minutes diving into a specific topic that affects you and your money: Acquiring it, spending it, and most of all, investing it. My experience as an investor is just the starting point for ATM: I am tapping into a network of experts I have developed over decades across a wide range of fields to discuss everything from taxes to portfolio construction, differences between skill and luck, how t

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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What Happens After a 20% Up Year in the Stock Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Sure it’s great the S&P 500 is up 20% this year but aren’t we just pricing in the inevitable Fed rate cuts in 2024? Should we really expect the market to go up again next year after surprising to the upside this year? Color me skeptical. Full disclosure: I’m naturally bearish and take a bit of an anti-Ben stance about the markets.

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More Trending

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 220,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending December 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000 , an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average.

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The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?

Advisor Perspectives

Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts? A) U.S.

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WealthManagement EDGE Podcast: Unleashing the Power of Generative AI with Cory McCruden

Wealth Management

Ernst & Young’s Cory McCruden shares how generative AI is revolutionizing the financial advisory industry.

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Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased 2.1% in November; Down 5.8% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decrease in November Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.1% in November from October. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 205.0, down 5.8% from a year ago. “While November’s decline was only slightly less than October’s, the move lower was on our radar, given the typical seasonal downward trend that paused in August and September,” said Chris Frey, senior mana

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Franklin Tsung Shares How to Enhance Client Engagement Through Salesforce

Wealth Management

Franklin Tsung, CEO at Future Advice, on maximizing Salesforce for financial advisors.

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Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $1.3 Trillion in Q3

Calculated Risk

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2023 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $151.0 trillion during the third quarter of 2023. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $1.7 trillion and the value of real estate increased $0.5 trillion. Household debt increased 2.5 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2023.

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Mindy Diamond on Independence: How These Wells Fargo Breakaways Built a $2.4B Business

Wealth Management

What motivated this $1.6B multi-generational Wells Fargo team to leave the wirehouse world for supported independence with a relatively unknown broker/dealer?

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The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 Excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.

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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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B/Ds Want NASAA To Kill Reg BI-Related Revisions to Model Rules

Wealth Management

Firms ranging from Morgan Stanley and Raymond James to LPL Financial and Cetera Financial Group decried state regulators’ proposals, but non-profit law clinics representing small investors said NASAA was on the right track.

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Frustrated Homebuyers Are About to Catch a Break

Advisor Perspectives

Homebuyers have suffered some severe whiplash in recent months. After all, when mortgage rates hit 8% in late October, it was reasonable to think the housing market would stay on ice throughout the winter.

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Final SEC Rules on AI, ESG Scheduled for April

Wealth Management

A final rule meant to “standardize” climate-related disclosures for issuers could also come in the spring, according to the White House Office of Management and Budget.

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Shedding A Light On Convertibles

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

When we look at different strategies or market segments, I'll often say something like I want this to work but. and of course the point that matters comes after the but. And frequently the but is that it doesn't really work as hoped for or maybe the return is good but some purported diversification benefit doesn't quite deliver. Part of the process for me is to explore ideas and not give up trying to learn more about an idea because with more enlightenment and more study maybe something can make

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Options Trading Is Rigged Against Average Investors

Wealth Management

Payment for order flow allows brokerages and big traders to team up against the little guy.

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Friday: Employment Report

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for November. The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).

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Strategic Real Estate Investing: Unveiling Traits and Opportunities in Securities and Private Lending

Wealth Management

Insights from Fidelity's Bill Maclay on identifying growth-driven properties, emphasizing free cash flow, and navigating opportunities in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and private lending in today's market.

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November Employment Preview

Calculated Risk

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for November. The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%. There were 150,000 jobs added in October, and the unemployment rate was at 3.9%. From BofA economists: "Nonfarm payroll employment likely rose by 200k in November following a 150k increase in October.

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Crafting Impact: Revenue Growth And Efficiency For Finance Professionals

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

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Hamilton Lane, TIFIN AI for Private Markets Partnership Raises $6M

Wealth Management

The collaboration between Hamilton Lane and TIFIN to build a private markets digital assistant gets funding from Venture capital firm FINTOP Capital.

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Unemployment Claims Up 1K, Better Than Expected

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending December 2, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 220,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 222,000.

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Bursting of Pandemic-Stock Bubble Fuels Big Wave of ETF Closures

Wealth Management

As of the first week of December, exchange-traded-fund issuers had liquidated or delisted 234 products in 2023. That compares with 159 closures last year and just 72 in 2021.

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7 Best Personal Finance Courses in 2024 For Beginners

Trade Brains

7 Best Personal Finance Course s: Mastering personal finance as a beginner is a pivotal step toward financial well-being. In this article, we guide you through the list of top personal finance courses designed for beginner to intermediate-level learners. From budgeting basics to investments, these courses offer a comprehensive foundation for managing your money in a better way.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Gold's Fickleness Makes It Bitcoin for Boomers

Wealth Management

The yellow metal has become untethered from financial fundamentals.

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Fundamental Analysis Of Aurobindo Pharma – Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis Of Aurobindo Pharma: Since the outbreak of the pandemic, there has been a greater emphasis on pharmaceutical companies due to the increased attention on global health concerns. One such company in this sector is Aurobindo Pharma. The company’s stock has once again reached its all-time high in recent days after tumbling from its Covid Highs.

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Private Credit Titans Win the Incentive Fee Lottery

Wealth Management

It’s too easy for managers to earn performance bonuses now that interest rates have risen.