Fri.Sep 06, 2024

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Friday links: a healthy dose of skepticism

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Three reasons why the stock market declines. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Three reasons to buy Josh Brown's new book "You Weren’t Supposed To See That." (ritholtz.com) Semiconductors Trying to put a valuation on Nvidia ($NVDA). (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) TSMC's ($TSM) Arizona plant is on track for 2025 production. (bloomberg.com) Export controls are not keeping Nvidia ($NVDA) chips out of China.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (September 7–September 8)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Treasury Department has finalized rules requiring most SEC-registered RIAs to implement risk-based Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism programs, including a requirement to report suspicious activity to Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, with firms having until January 1, 2026 to comply with the rule.

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Podcast links: the other guy

Abnormal Returns

Listening Someone was just charged with fraud using AI to create hundreds of thousands of fake songs by nonexistent bands. (arstechnica.com) What it's like to be 'the other guy' on a celebrity podcast. (nytimes.com) Hedge funds Corey Hoffstein talks with Giuseppe Paleologo about portfolio construction at multi-manager hedge funds. (podcasts.apple.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Joe Peta about how to measure manager skill.

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If The Prices Are Wrong You Should Be Rich

A Wealth of Common Sense

I bought a Peloton exercise bike during the early days of the pandemic. It’s convenient and the technology is pretty neat.1 But I never would have purchased shares in the company. I have a rule of thumb that anything new that’s fitness-related is a fad. I’ve seen far too many fad diets and fancy exercise equipment or videos come and go over the years.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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The WealthStack Podcast: Unpacking The State of CRM with Doug Fritz

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy's Doug Fritz discusses how the role of the CRM has evolved.

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WealthStack Roundup: CatchlightAI Rolls Out Beta Of Lead Routing Feature

Wealth Management

The lead enrichment provider also won a Wealthie award, CAIS has a new CTO and feature updates at interVal.

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Comments on August Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio were unchanged, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.2%. Construction employment increased 34 thousand and is now 665 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.

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Morgan Stanley Fined $2M Over First Republic Stock Sales

Wealth Management

Morgan Stanley will pay the fine to settle the investigation by the Massachusetts Securities Division.

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Adding Leveraged, Long-Short Factor Strategies to Improve Tax Alpha

Alpha Architect

Joseph Liberman, Stanley Krasner, Nathan Sosner, and Pedro Freitas, authors of the September 2023 study “Beyond Direct Indexing: Dynamic Direct Long-Short Investing,” examined if the utilization of leverage and long-short strategies motivated by the literature on factor-based investing could improve on the tax benefits of direct indexing and tax-loss harvesting.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators

Advisor Perspectives

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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Are you wasting time and reducing the value of your business?

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Dave Crenshaw I’m going to share with you what I call “switch busters,” which are ways to reduce the number of times you switch activities in your day. If you can do that, you can radically decrease the amount of time it takes to complete pretty much everything. Most- and least-valuable activities The one thing that really hits the heart is all the hats you wear, and they create a lot of switches.

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August Employment Report: 142 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 61,000, from +179,000 to +118,000, and the change for July was revised down by 25,000, from +114,000 to +89,000.

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Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 6, 2024

Advisor Perspectives

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 6, 2024 at 3.72%, the 2-year note ended at 3.66%, and the 30-year at 4.03%.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Q3 GDP Tracking: Low-to-Mid 2%

Calculated Risk

From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, the 3Q GDP tracking estimate went down three tenths to 2.3% q/q saar while our 2Q GDP tracking estimate remains unchanged at 3.0% q/q saar since the second official estimate. [Sept 6th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of the trade balance report were somewhat softer than our previous assumptions while the details of the factory orders report were roughly in line with our expectations.

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BlackRock Dials Back Risk Across $131 Billion Model Portfolios

Advisor Perspectives

The world’s biggest asset manager is taking some chips off the table as markets enter a “new phase” of turbulence ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate cutting cycle and the US presidential election.

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Should you invest in long-duration debt funds now?

Truemind Capital

India’s 1-year G-Sec is trading at 6.75% and 10-year G-sec yields 6.85%. The difference is only 0.10%. 5-year G-sec is trading at 6.76%—almost at the same level as 1-year G-sec. This indicates that the yield curve is flat. There is a peculiar situation here. Usually, as the duration of any debt security increases (from the same issuer, in this case, it is GOI), the yield also goes up.

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Navigating Financial Aid: New FAFSA Rules and Tips for Families

Advisor Perspectives

Recent changes to the FAFSA form and process include a simpler form, fewer questions and a revised eligibility formula. Our Bill Cass highlights what you need to know to apply for federal financial aid for college.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Everything you need to know about RIL 47th AGM; Future plans and Growth prospects explained

Trade Brains

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) recently outlined its future strategies at its Annual General Meeting (AGM). As a leading force in India’s business sector, RIL highlighted its plans for growth across retail, digital services, and energy. The company’s innovative approaches and strategic investments underscore its commitment to driving substantial value.

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Five Fundamentally Sound Low Beta Stocks for Volatile Markets

Validea

In today’s unpredictable financial landscape, investors are increasingly seeking ways to help mitigate risk. One strategy that can make sense is focusing on low beta stocks that also demonstrate solid fundamentals. Let’s explore the benefits of this approach and highlight some standout companies that fit the bill. Understanding Beta and Its Importance Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility in relation to the overall market.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: August Employment

Advisor Perspectives

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. August saw a 142,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.2%.

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Riding the Wave: Understanding Momentum Investing

Validea

In the vast ocean of investment strategies, momentum investing stands out as a surfboard that catches the biggest waves. Unlike its more intuitive cousins such as value or quality investing, momentum doesn’t rely on fundamental analysis of a company’s financials. Instead, it’s all about riding the wave of market sentiment. What is Momentum Investing?

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Traders Add to Bets on Jumbo Fed Cuts as Data Fuels Bond Rally

Advisor Perspectives

US Treasuries gained and traders ramped up their bets that the Federal Reserve will opt for a supersized interest-rate cut this month after a mixed report on the US labor market.

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Validea’s Market Valuation Update: September 2024

Validea

Here is the latest update for September from Validea’s market valuation tool. Rather than focusing on market-cap weighted indexes like the S&P 500, our tool focuses on the valuation of the average stock relative to history. We use the median of our investable universe of 2700 stocks to perform the calculation. The average stock got a little cheaper in August with the TTM PE Ratio falling to 21 from 21.5.

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US Job Growth Comes Up Short in Possible Warning Sign for Fed

Advisor Perspectives

US hiring fell short of forecasts in August after downward revisions to the prior two months, a development likely to fuel ongoing debate over how much the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates.

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The 5% Rule?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Barron's dusted off the retirement bucket playbook in an article while also arguing that a 5% withdrawal rate in retirement can now be considered safe versus the more common 4%. Before I forget, read the comments on this one. Always read the comments. First to the buckets. They suggest two years worth of cash invested in cash proxies (my word, not theirs), 5-8 years in income producing securities like bonds and then put the rest in growth like the stock market.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Why Singapore Is Bringing Blockchain Into Mutual Funds

Advisor Perspectives

Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.

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How a Trump or Harris Presidency Might Affect Different Social Classes

Wealth Management

From taxes to tariffs, several changes are being discussed on the campaign trail that would result in new benefits for some and new burdens for others.

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OPEC+ Kicks the Can Down a Very Uphill Road

Advisor Perspectives

OPEC+ is like a teabag – it only works in hot water. The late Robert Mabro, one of the savviest oil-market observers, liked to say the cartel only got the job done when it was under prolonged financial pain. To judge by its latest actions, OPEC+ has yet to realize it’s inside a warming kettle.