Fri.Nov 10, 2023

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Friday links: how Americans feel

Abnormal Returns

Strategy The 40 of the 60/40 portfolio is finally earning people something. (awealthofcommonsense.com) There's still no sign of a turn in the trend favoring U.S. vs. international equities. (allstarcharts.com) The case for bonds. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) Energy Solar panel manufacturing is finally on the rise in the U.S. (nytimes.com) Why the cancellation of the NuScale, small modular reactor, project is such a bummer.

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The Smoke Show

The Reformed Broker

OK, we’re trying something new next week for registered financial advisors only. It’s a brand new show we’ve created and you can be there virtually to watch the pilot episode live. As an advisor, you’re going to spend time, money and energy implementing new technology and asset management solutions into your practice. You may as well get good at it.

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Podcast links: the power of TV

Abnormal Returns

Economy Kyla Scanlon talks with David Dayen about the gap between the economy and consumer sentiment. (youtube.com) Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand talk all things macro with 3Fourteen Research founders Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal. (youtube.com) Business Matt Reustle talks with Staley Cates about the history of FedEx ($FDX). (joincolossus.com) Jordan Harbinger talks with Chris Miller author of "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology.

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The Recession We Deserve

The Reformed Broker

On episode 117 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Callie Cox and Malcolm Ethridge to discuss: market sentiment, Robinhood earnings, Warren Buffett and his cash, interest rates, the yield curve, recession calls, weight loss drugs, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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MiB: The Nobel Laureates

The Big Picture

I was recently asked how many Masters in Business guests have won a Nobel Prize. The list appears to be mostly (but not exclusively) behavioral finance types; here is the short-list of laurates, plus a few related columns of Nobel Winners: Danny Kahneman on Noise (May 15, 2021) Paul Krugman on Zombie Ideas (February 15, 2020) Gene Fama (with David Booth) on Efficient Markets (November 9, 2019) Michael Spence, on the Dynamics of Information Signaling (October 26, 2019) Robert Shiller on Narrative

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • What the US got right that Europe did not : America’s post-pandemic recovery has left Europe in the dust. ( Financial Times ) • The Land Where Inflation Is Good News : Food and energy price increases triggered by the pandemic and the Ukraine war are helping end the long, bleak era of Japanification. ( Wall Street Journal ) • The Real Reason So Many Asset Managers Are Struggling in China : The world’s second-biggest economy has its own rules of engagement

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Debt Management in Estate Planning

Wealth Management

What if a client burdened with substantial debts or liabilities from their business unexpectedly passes away?

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Yield Sells

A Wealth of Common Sense

Boring old money market funds are the hottest thing in fund flows this year. Just look at the massive amount of money that has poured into these things: There’s a good reason these funds saw stagnating asset growth in the 2010s — there was no yield. Now there is. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and Jeff Seyffart show how banks and fund companies across the board are vacuuming up money now that money market f.

Assets 120
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Wall Street Managers Pile Into Closed-End Funds on Discounts

Wealth Management

Many individual investors have seen the value of their holdings drop, and are looking to bail out, drawing hedge funds.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Third Quarter of 2023

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Third Quarter of 2023 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.62 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2023 , according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

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Putting Your Clients’ Interests First

Wealth Management

Adopting an advice-centric engagement model places the decision-making authority squarely in the hands of those with the most vested interest—the clients themselves.

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Nov 10th COVID Update: Deaths and Hospitalizations Decreased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have more than doubled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023, but have declined over the last few weeks.

Numbers 102
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Merging The Tech Of Two Firms Can Be A Challenge

Wealth Management

Trevor Hicks, chief technology officer at Wetherby Asset Management and Laird Norton Wealth Management, provides an honest assessment of the technology tools used by the $14 billion AUM firms to work with clients and drive business.

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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls to Six-Month Low

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment fell to a six month low in November according to the preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index came in at 60.4, down 3.4 points (-5.3%) from the October final. This morning's reading was below the forecast of 63.7.

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RIA People Roundup: EP Wealth Advisors Taps Kyle Miller to Lead M&A

Wealth Management

A host of ‘strategic’ hires and promotions were announced this week, as firms continue to focus on growth.

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2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October A brief excerpt: NOTE: Starting next month, I’ll add some comparisons to 2019 (pre-pandemic)! This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in October. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas.

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Edward Jones Grew Advisor Headcount to More Than 19K in Q3

Wealth Management

Advisor attrition dropped by 30% in the quarter to 4.5%, the company announced.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Q4 GDP Tracking: Starting Close to 2%

Calculated Risk

From BofA: Overall, data since our last weekly publication pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate from 5.1% q/q saar to 5.2% q/q saar. [W]e will start our 4Q US GDP tracker with the retail sales print [Nov 10th] emphasis added From Goldman: We boosted our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q3 to +5.2% and left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.6%.

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RIA M&A Roundup: Hightower Picks Up $2.5B Partner Firm in Orlando

Wealth Management

Hightower, Robertson Stephens, Wealth Enhancement Group, Hub International and Sikitch all announced M&A deals this week.

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

Advisor Perspectives

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of October 27th, the index was at 7.007, down 3.512 from the previous week.

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Edward Jones Advisor Headcount Tops 19K in Q3

Wealth Management

Advisor attrition dropped by 30% in the quarter to 4.5%, the company announced.

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Crafting Impact: Revenue Growth And Efficiency For Finance Professionals

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

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Fundamental Analysis of Castrol India – Detailed Stock Analysis

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis of Castrol India : The world of Automotive Engineering is filled with numerous mechanical parts. When we fire up a vehicle’s engine, these parts move in tandem at super high speed generating a lot of friction as they rub against each other. This generates a lot of heat, which could eventually lead to wear & tear on your machine.

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AllianceBernstein Offers Banks Funding in Return for Clients

Wealth Management

AllianceBernstein is offering funding to lenders — enabling the banks to keep their most prestigious clients sweet — in return for a cut of the fees and access to their client contact books.

Banking 108
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S&P 500 Snapshot: November Rally Continues

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 rose for a second consecutive week, finishing Friday up 1.3% from the previous week. The index has now posted daily gains for 7 of the 8 trading days in November thus far. The index is currently up 15.46% year to date and is 7.95% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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Quant Giant Dimensional's Pivot to ETFs Reaps $100B Payoff

Wealth Management

With nearly 40 ETFs, and thanks to inflows and fund conversions, Dimensional is among the top 10 largest US issuers in the $7.3 trillion industry.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Sustainable Small-Cap Core Strategy: Reporting on the impact of our investment decisions 2022

Brown Advisory

Sustainable Small-Cap Core Strategy: Reporting on the impact of our investment decisions 2022 bgregorio Fri, 11/10/2023 - 13:26 Download the Report A Letter of Introduction From The Portfolio Managers Brown Advisory has made a deep commitment to sustainable investing across a wide range of its equity and fixed income strategies. We firmly believe that there does not have to be a trade-off between strong performance and investments that seek to address society’s environmental and social challen

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Breaking Down the Challenging Macro Landscape with Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal

Validea

In this episode, we speak with 3Fourteen Research founders Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal. We discuss 3Fourteen’s systematic macro process and how they are using it to analyze the current challenging environment. We also cover a wide range of macro topics, including the importance of the duration of treasury issuance, Fed policy, the changing correlation dynamics of stocks and bonds, their unique drawdown prediction model and their outlook for housing.

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Why People Plateau

Steve Sanduski

RIA owners often tell me how frustrated they are that the associate advisors at their firms avoid business development work and seem to plateau. Despite giving their associate advisors opportunities, leads, referral strategies, and help crafting business development plans, they rarely see big results from all that motivating, inspiring, and yes, cajoling.