Thu.Apr 25, 2024

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Longform links: free is never free

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters" by Brian Klaas. (behavioralscientist.org) An excerpt from "The Age of Grievance" by Frank Bruni. (theatlantic.com) A Q&A with Erin A. Cech author of "The Trouble with Passion: How Searching for Fulfillment at Work Fosters Inequality." (annehelen.substack.com) An excerpt from "Alpine Rising: Sherpas, Baltis, and the Triumph of Local Climbers in the Greater Ranges" by Bernadette McDonald.

Economics 278
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March 2024 State Coincident Indexes Ease

The Big Picture

A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data. Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product expanded at a disappointing 1.6% — note this is seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate. That lagged economists’ consensus of 2.4%. However, it’s not quite all it appears. Some of this is that “long and variable lag” of higher rates starting to bite — but it’s not just that.

Economy 214
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Thursday links: analysts and accountants

Abnormal Returns

Markets The energy sector is still less than 4% of the S&P 500. (allstarcharts.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps. (morningstar.com) Strategy Good luck trying to dial risk up and down at the right times. (collabfund.com) Expect to see some overconfidence tonight in Detroit. (seeitmarket.com) There's no return without risk.

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Will Higher Rates Spell Doom For the Stock Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Bill Artzerounian joined me again this week to tackle questions about automating your finances, the tax implications of a company sale, how to offset RWM taxes and the pros and cons of a Roth 401k. Further Reading: Inflation Matters More For the Stock Market Than Interest Rates 1It’s also worth pointing out that interest rates under 2% have been rare historically.

Marketing 141
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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U.S. Births decreased in 2023

Calculated Risk

From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2023. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2023 was 3,591,328, down 2% from 2022. The general fertility rate was 54.4 births per 1,000 females ages 15–44, down 3% from 2022. The total fertility rate was 1,616.5 births per 1,000 women in 2023, a decline of 2% from 2022.

Numbers 119

More Trending

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Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Better Than Expected

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending April 20, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 207,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 214,000 jobless claims.

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Strong Economic Data Gives Reason To Be Constructive on Markets

Wealth Management

Astoria believes emerging markets will continue to struggle if the dollar strengthens and rates are held.

Economics 116
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Q1 Advance Estimate: GDP Per Capita versus GDP

Advisor Perspectives

The advance estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 1.59%, a deceleration from 3.40% for the Q4 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.00%, a decrease from 2.79% for the Q4 headline number.

Numbers 103
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Private Equity Firm GTCR Buys AssetMark

Wealth Management

Rumors swirled for months that the TAMP and technology provider was up for sale.

Sales 115
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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The Power of RILAs in Retirement Planning

Advisor Perspectives

With nearly 4.5 million Americans turning 65 in 2024, advisors are navigating four core risks that will impact their portfolios in retirement: longevity, inflation, volatility, and emotions. We will discuss new research by Dr. Wade Pfau, professor at The American College of Financial Services. He did this research on behalf of Equitable to look at how to improve the efficient frontier, enhance risk-adjusted returns and help advisors – and their clients – make the most of their assets

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Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: $1B+ Wells Fargo Breakaway Team Gets Re-Energized in New Model

Wealth Management

Carnegie Private Wealth's Angie Ostendarp and Jordan Raniszeski share their journey of why they left Wells Fargo and joined LPL's Strategic Wealth Services model.

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4 Pitfalls of Not Having a Financial Plan

Carson Wealth

There are some things in life you just can’t plan for: an unexpected illness, job loss, death of spouse, disability. And while experiencing one of these major events can drastically impact your life, having an effective financial plan can help ensure that it doesn’t ruin your financial well-being. What Do You Need in Your Financial Plan? Your financial plan should be customized to your own unique needs.

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Wealth Enhancement Group Scores $500M Hybrid From Raymond James

Wealth Management

Lynch Retirement Investment Group brings WEG to almost $82 billion and adds a fourth Maryland office.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Why people will pay for service

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Bryce Sanders It is easy to think the financial services industry is engaged in a race to the bottom when there are ads telling people they can trade stocks “for free.” This advertising appeals to DIY buyers, but it doesn’t appeal to everyone. Many people — especially those who are quality clients — are willing to pay more for a trusted financial advisor they can build an enduring relationship with.

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WealthStack Roundup: Jeanette Kuda Named COO of TIFIN AG

Wealth Management

Also, a new F2 Strategy study suggests firms must be responsive to digitally native affluent millennial clients to keep their business and MyVest expands tax-aware portfolio transitions for its Strategic Portfolio System.

Portfolio 111
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BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.6% Annualized Rate in Q1

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 , according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government s

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When Mental Health Issues Lead to Financial Ruin

Wealth Management

How acclaimed journalist Josephine Franklin ended up homeless.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 3.4% in March; Up 0.1% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Ascended 3.4% in March Pending home sales in March climbed 3.4% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, South and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the Midwest recorded a loss. Year-over-year, the Northeast and South registered decreases but the Midwest and West improved. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 78.2 in March.

Sales 72
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Cetera Names Head of Corporate Development From Avantax

Wealth Management

Before joining Avantax, acquired by Cetera last year, Michael Molnar spent time as a strategy consultant, equity analyst, successful investor, CPA and dealmaker.

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Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 1.6%, Below Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

The U.S. economy grew at a slower than expected pace to start off the year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.6% in Q1 2024, according to the advance estimate. The latest estimate is lower than the forecasted 2.5% growth and is a slowdown from the Q4 2023 GDP final estimate of 3.4%.

Economy 72
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Growth Investing: Tapping Trends Beyond the Mag 7

Wealth Management

Parnassus believes innovation creates opportunities outside the Mag 7.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 207,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000 , a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 214,500. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

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Bearish Kicker Candlestick Pattern – Strengths And Trading Ideas

Trade Brains

Bearish kicker candlestick pattern: It is often observed that market participants utilize technical analysis as a means of speculating and predicting short-term movements in stock prices. Technical analysis encompasses a range of methods for analyzing the market, including the candlestick pattern method, which is commonly employed to forecast stock price movements.

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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, March 2024. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY. • At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for April).

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Use a Mirror to Get Referred

Advisor Perspectives

It’s time to look at yourself and make a change.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Make Simplicity Your Superpower

NAIFA Advisor Today

Richard Dobson is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) who strives to simplify communication between clients and financial advisors. As a keynote speaker, he has provided insurance and investment advice for over 40 years. Richard is the author of Make Simplicity Your Superpower! and The Trusted Professional. He is also a NAIFA member and has previously served as a former FINRA Broker Dealer Chief Compliance Officer (CCO).

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Lawler: Observations on the Recent Surge in Net International Migration

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Observations on the Recent Surge in Net International Migration A brief excerpt: NOTE: Housing economist Tom Lawler has written extensively on demographics and the impact on household growth and housing demand. Last November, Lawler reviewed the most recent Census projections: Lawler on Existing Home Sales, Population Projections and Household Slowdown.

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Pending Home Sales Rise More Than Expected in March

Advisor Perspectives

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index rose 3.4% in March to 78.2, its highest level in over a year and more than the forecasted 0.3% growth. Pending home sales are up 0.1% from one year ago.

Sales 64