Mon.Apr 07, 2025

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Recession Watch Metrics

Calculated Risk

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Now I am on recession watch , but still not yet predicting a recession for several reasons: the U.S. economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take

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Monday links: an openness to risk

Abnormal Returns

Markets Why this is different than the GFC. (morningstar.com) Markets are discounting lower future cash flows. (ritholtz.com) What would earnings have to do to justify the move down? (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Strategy Why you need a plan, now more than ever. (fortunesandfrictions.com) What to do during a stock market downturn. (obliviousinvestor.com) It's okay to feel anxious.

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Housing April 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 10.7% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. Usually, inventory is up about 4% or 5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

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Adviser links: in times like these

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Michael Kitces talks with Nick Rodkin, managing partner of Stoic Financial, about working with client couples. (kitces.com) Matt Zeigler talks with Danika Waddell, founder of Xena Financial Planning. (epsilontheory.com) Aging How financial literacy declines with age. (knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu) Why advisers may spot dementia in clients first.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Is The Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in March; Down 0.2% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Seasonal Decline in March Despite Strong Market Demand Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in March compared to February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 202.6, which is a decrease of 0.2% from a year ago and also lower than the February levels.

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Wealthbox’s Upcoming Built-In AI Meeting Notes Tool Signals Competition For Standalone Providers (And More Of The Latest In Financial #AdvisorTech – March 2025)

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome to the April 2025 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors! This month's edition kicks off with the news that Wealthbox has announced it is planning to launch a new built-in AI meeting note tool that it seeks to integrate seamlessly with its existing CRM solution – which serves as a prominent warning for

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Understanding What Drives Momentum in Global Stock Markets

Alpha Architect

With over nearly 150 years of data, the study finds that when inflation and interest rates rise, stocks and bonds tend to move together, reducing diversification benefits. This has critical implications for portfolio construction and risk management. Understanding What Drives Momentum in Global Stock Markets was originally published at Alpha Architect.

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Revenue Sharing: What Is It Good For? Absolutely Nothing

Wealth Management

Its time to move from outdated, opaque and complex revenue-sharing schemes in 401(k) plans to transparent and understandable pricing.

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Market Drama

Zoe Financial

Market Drama Featuring Zoe CEO & Founder, Andres Garcia-Amaya, CFA April 7th, 2025 Watch Time: 5 min. Welcome to this week’s Market Drama! Stock Market Update: S&P 500: Down 9% this week, now down ~1314% YTD. Nasdaq: Down 10% this week, now down 19.3% YTD. Oil: Also down nearly double digits for the week. Main driver: April 2nd announcement of aggressive new tariffs caused sharp sell-offs on Thursday and Friday.

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State Securities Regulators Approve Changes to Match Model Rule with Reg BI

Wealth Management

The amendments to the model rule wouldnt automatically change for state-registered reps. By offering the template, NASAA aims for uniformity between states (and between state and federal law).

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Three Things – Tariffs, Of Course

Discipline Funds

Here are three things I am thinking about that are really only one thing, of course. 1) Why Tariffs are Bad. I got back into making YouTube videos this weekend. This time I touched on tariffs, how they work, the many myths around them and why they’re bad. This whole thing really blows my mind because this was never a controversial topic in economics.

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The Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: Inside Focus Financial's Evolution

Wealth Management

Michael Nathanson shares his vision for Focus Financial, offering an insiders perspective on the firms evolution and differentiators and how that plays into the future of independence.

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Coaching for Better Time Management: Prioritizing Organic Growth in Your Daily Routine

XY Planning Network

In the hectic day-to-day running of your firm, it's easy to get caught up in the day-to-day demands of client work and administrative tasks, but what about your firm's future? Carving out time for business growth is essential but often gets neglected. The reality of running your firm is that you will dedicate roughly half of your time to billable client work and half to non-billable activities.

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T3 Takeaways: AI, Market Shifts, and the Future of Advisor Tech

Wealth Management

At T3, the conversation has shifted. AI is taking center stage, legacy platforms are losing ground, and new tools like Advyzon, Holistiplan, and Jump are gaining serious traction.

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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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Wealthbox’s Upcoming Built-In AI Meeting Notes Tool Signals Competition For Standalone Providers (And More Of The Latest In Financial #AdvisorTech – April 2025)

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome to the April 2025 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors! This month's edition kicks off with the news that Wealthbox has announced it is planning to launch a new built-in AI meeting note tool that it seeks to integrate seamlessly with its existing CRM solution – which serves as a prominent warning for

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Dispelling Three Retirement Myths

Wealth Management

Debunking some retirement-related truisms that rank high on the tooth-fairy scale.

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100 Baggers Leave Fingerprints: Chris Mayer on How to Find Them

Validea

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by special co-host Bogumil Baranowski to sit down with Chris Mayer. As the author of the acclaimed book 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them, former editor of influential newsletters, and co-founder of Woodlock House Family Capital, Chris brings a wealth of experience and a unique perspective to the table.

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LPL Adds $16B From First Horizon Bank’s Wealth Division

Wealth Management

First Horizon Advisors, which has about 110 financial advisors across $16 billion of client assets, will transition to LPLs Institution Services platform in the second half of this year.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Leveraging Social Proof: How Financial Advisors Can Use Client Testimonials and Case Studies to Engage Millennial Investors

Don Connelly & Associates

Its well established that many millennials almost entirely rely on the internet for their daily consumption of information and social engagement. They would rather seek information for themselves than be told what is true. For these digital natives, if it cant be found on the Web, it doesnt exist. Or, if it cant be validated through a quick internet search, it is not to be trusted.

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Kevin Mayeux Honored at Chinese American Insurance Association’s Year of the Snake Gala

NAIFA Advisor Today

NAIFA CEO Kevin Mayeux , CAE, was honored during the Chinese American Insurance Association s (CAIA) Year of the Snake Gala, held April 3 in New York. The festive evening brought together hundreds of insurance professionals, community leaders, and honored guests to celebrate the achievements and deep-rooted values of the Chinese American insurance community.

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Ten Top High Shareholder Yield Stocks – April 2025

Validea

Shareholder yield provides investors with a holistic assessment of value returned relative to a company’s market capitalization through three essential components. Dividend yield delivers direct cash distributions to shareholders from corporate profits. Stock repurchase programs constitute the second element, as buying back shares enhances the value of outstanding stock.

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The Most Volatile Flat Day Of All Time

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Monday had to be the wildest up 23 basis point day in stock market history. The day started down a lot, then had an insane rally that appeared to be panic buying but turned out to be driven from sort of incorrect quote attributed to Kevin Hassett and then it was moving back and forth with very big swings in very short time bursts. Treasury yields did something similar, ultimately rising on the day which might be surprise for anyone thinking we are in the midst of a crash (maybe this is a crash,

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Talk Your Book: International Stocks, So Hot Right Now

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by Schafer Cullen: See here for more information on Schafer Cullens International strategies On today’s show, we discuss: The catalyst for international outperformance How AI is affecting international markets Policies affecting international markets Accessing Schafer funds Building an international portfolio How the value of the US dollar affects international investm.

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Portfolio Rebalancing: Free Lunch or Empty Calories?

Advisor Perspectives

As market prices change over time, so will the fraction of your portfolio which is in stocks or bonds. How often should you rebalance your portfolio back to your desired asset allocation? And how much is that rebalancing worth?

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Thinking of starting a charity or a Not For Profit?

Accounting for Good

Australia is considered a caring country, as evidenced by the extraordinary number of registered charities operating on our shores.

Numbers 52
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World Markets Watchlist: April 7, 2025

Advisor Perspectives

Only one of the nine indexes on our world watch list has posted gains through April 7, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is the sole index on our watchlist still in the green, with a year to date gain of 1.04% while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 has posted the largest loss at -21.95%.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.

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How should you audit or assess the effectiveness of risk management?

Norman Marks

Theres an old joke: Q: How do you eat an elephant? A: One bite at a time. You could also ask: Q: How do you audit the entire system of internal control (i.e., for all objectives)? A: One audit of high sources of risk at a time.

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What Happens If The US Slaps Tariffs On Gold And Silver?

Advisor Perspectives

If tariffs are imposed on gold and silver will their prices rise, fall, or stay the same? We explain facts and myths when it comes to gold prices and tariffs.

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belairdirect Car Insurance vs. YouSet: Pros and Cons [2025]

YouSet Insurance

Considering belairdirect car insurance? Weigh these advantages and potential drawbacks before making your decision.

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Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: March 2025

Advisor Perspectives

What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.