Fri.Jan 05, 2024

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Friday links: a boost to growth

Abnormal Returns

Markets A look at major asset class returns in 2023. (visualcapitalist.com) Long technology, short utilities was the trade in 2023. (visualcapitalist.com) Strategy How to read all those market and economic forecasts. (morningstar.com) A look at different variants of the 60/40 portfolio. (priceactionlab.com) Hedge funds David Tepper's Carolina Panthers are at the bottom of the NFL.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (January 6-7)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that comment letters submitted regarding the Department of Labor's (DoL) proposed Retirement Security Rule, which is intended to strengthen standards regarding the provision of certain retirement-related advice, reflect the contentious nature of the proposal, with brokerage and insurance industry groups arguing that existing regulations are sufficient to protect investors

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Podcast links: the power of attention

Abnormal Returns

The biz The 25 best podcasts of 2023 including 'The Retrievals' by Susan Burton. (theatlantic.com) The best podcasts of 2023 according to people who make podcasts including 'The Town with Matthew Belloni.' (vulture.com) Economy 10 things Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway learned in 2023. (bloomberg.com) Four megatrends heading into 2024 including a more normal economy.

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MiB: Matt Levine on Money & Stuff

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Matt Levine , Opinion columnist at Bloomberg. He is the author of Money Stuff , one of the most popular daily newsletters on Wall Street. Previously, he was an investment banker at Goldman Sachs and a mergers and acquisitions lawyer at Wachtell, Lipton. He explains how his career meandered from studying classics, teaching Greek, clerking for a Federal Judge, working on M&A at a big firm, and eventually doing derivative transactions on Wall Street.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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There’s No Ozempic For Financial Decisions

A Wealth of Common Sense

I’m skeptical of any diet or exercise craze because they all end up more or less becoming fads. This is why I could never get behind the idea of buying stock in Peloton, even though I am a happy user of the product. Sure, some people will buy it and use it regularly. Others will buy it, use it and then stop using it. But there is always another piece of equipment or exercise routine that comes along.1 When it comes.

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December Employment Report: 216 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 45,000, from +150,000 to +105,000, and the change for November was revised down by 2

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RIA Roundup: Mission Wealth Names Five New Partners

Wealth Management

2024 kicked off with a flurry of activity in the RIA space, including at least 11 deals, some key people moves, and one rebrand.

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Comments on December Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both decreased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in December.

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Bond Traders Are Resolute on 2024 Fed Cuts as Data Whips Yields

Wealth Management

The rebound in Treasury yields to start the year comes after bonds rallied sharply in the last two months of 2023 on signals that the Fed is pivoting toward more dovish monetary policy.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Jan 5th COVID Update: Deaths and Hospitalizations Increased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have almost quintupled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

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America Spreads the Wealth — and Redistributes It, Too

Wealth Management

Neither the left nor the right may want to believe it, but the US tax system does a pretty good job of taking from the haves and giving to the have-nots.

Taxes 119
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5 Best Fertilizer Stocks With High FII Holdings in India

Trade Brains

Best Fertilizer Stocks With High FII Holdings: Fertilizers play a crucial role in ensuring nations’ food security by providing essential nutrients to plants, which help them grow and produce nutritious crops. As a result, fertilizers have become a vital component of the agriculture industry, attracting more foreign investors to India’s markets and creating new investment opportunities.

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Allworth Financial: A Disciplined Process and Proprietary Scorecard

Wealth Management

Andy Stout, CIO of $19 billion Allworth Financial, discusses the RIA’s proprietary scorecard to filter through thousands of funds, the firm’s strategy for weathering economic risks and how the firm uses direct indexing to bring alpha to clients.

Economics 119
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Chart of the Week: ISM Services Employment Collapse

Discipline Funds

This is a chart that people will be talking about for a long time now. This shows the ISM Services Employment Index. Services have been extremely strong for the last few years and it’s been a consistent bright spot in the economy. It’s been so strong that it’s forced the Fed to reconsider their position at times in the last few years as services inflation has remained stickier than the Fed is comfortable with.

Economy 95
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Kitces Research: Advisor Wellbeing on the Decline Among Minorities, Next Gen

Wealth Management

Twenty percent of advisors are “struggling,” particularly minorities and younger industry participants, according to new Kitces research.

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Top 5 AdvicePay Blogs of 2023 for Forward-Thinking Financial Advisors and Wealth Management Firms

AdvicePay

As we say goodbye to the transformative landscape of 2023, a year distinguished by substantial growth for both you and us, we wanted to take a moment to reflect and share some of our most valuable resources. In the past year, we proudly unveiled our inaugural Fee-for-Service Industry Trend Report (our Bozeman office is buzzing with excitement as we prepare to release Volume 2!).

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Private Equity Funds Are Borrowing Against Themselves, With the Help of Insurers

Wealth Management

Several insurers are ramping up their participation in net asset value financing, an increasingly popular form of borrowing for private equity funds that need liquidity amid a tough market for cashing out holdings.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Chalk Talk: Healthy Financial Habits for 2024

MainStreet Financial Planning

“MainStreet Chalk Talk” The MainStreet Financial Planning Discussion Club When: Tuesday 1-16-24 at 7:30pm Eastern; 4:30pm Pacific ~30-45 minutes Recorded and able to retrieve for one week How : Zoom Meeting Free for current clients, $10 for guests Register Here! Healthy Financial Habits for 2024 Hosted by: CFP®’s Katherine Edwards , Anna Sergunina , and Jennfer Bush Join CFP’s Katherine Edwards, Anna Sergunina, and Jennfer Bush as we discuss how to cultivate healthy financial habits

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Everything you need to know about spot Bitcoin ETFs

Wealth Management

Thursday, February 01, 2024 | 2:00 PM Eastern Standard Time

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Employment Report: 216K Jobs Added in December

Advisor Perspectives

The latest employment report showed 216,000 jobs were added in December, more than the expected addition of 170,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.

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Tepper’s $2 Billion Hedge Fund Payday Marred by NFL Meltdown

Wealth Management

The founder of Appaloosa Management has struggled running the Carolina Panthers even as bets on tech stocks boost his personal fortune.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.4% to 2.5%

Calculated Risk

From Goldman: Following today’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.4% (qoq ar) and our Q4 domestic final sales growth forecast unchanged at +2.2% (qoq ar). [Jan 5th estimate] emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on January 3, up from 2.0 percent on January 2.

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TIFIN, Franklin Templeton To Launch TIFIN @Work

Wealth Management

The AI-powered employee financial wellness platform is meant to help small- to mid-sized advisors gain traction in the retirement plan market.

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Question #7 for 2024: How much will wages increase in 2024?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 7) Wage Growth: Wage growth was solid in 2023, up 4.0% year-over-year as of November, but down from 4.8% YoY in 2022.

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Money-Market Fund Assets Rise to New All-Time High

Wealth Management

Retail investors have been piling into money funds since the Federal Reserve began one of the most-aggressive tightening cycles in decades in 2022.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: December Employment

Advisor Perspectives

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 216,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls and the unemployment remained at 3.7%.

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6 Key Differences in Investment Strategies Between the Rich and Middle Class

WiserAdvisor

The rich and the middle class exhibit many differences, from education and lifestyle to their income streams. Among the multitude of distinctions, one of the most crucial ones lies in how they perceive the world of investments. The investment strategies adopted by these two income groups are remarkably unique and distinct. Unveiling these differences can provide you with a direct glimpse into their opposite attitudes and actions and guide your investment choices.

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ISM Services PMI Expands for 12th Straight Month

Advisor Perspectives

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its December services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 50.6, which was lower than the 52.6 forecast. The latest reading marks the 12th straight month the index has been expansion territory.