Thu.Jun 27, 2024

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Inflation is Obvious But Wage Gains Seem Invisible

The Big Picture

I’ve been observing how radically unusual various sentiment readings have been for a few years now. It made little sense to me that the post-pandemic era saw sentiment levels far below major dislocations such as the ‘87 crash, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Dotcom implosion, or the 08-09 great financial crisis. We have tried to identify the causal factors by considering social media , increases in partisanship , ignorance, even trolling of pollsters.

Economics 307
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Thursday links: a wait-and-see approach

Abnormal Returns

Markets By this measure, the stock market is at record-high concentration. (axios.com) It's been awhile since we had a 2% stock market drop. (carsongroup.com) Strategy Investing is planning. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Why you shouldn't care what other investors or the markets are doing. (safalniveshak.com) Companies Monster Beverage ($MNST) is unique not only for its stock performance.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 141: Creating The Space To Have More Meaningful Money Conversations With Clients

Nerd's Eye View

The practice of asking questions has always been an integral part of the financial planning process. In the early days of the advicer industry, those questions almost exclusively dealt with facts around a client's or prospect's financial situation to determine (ultimately) what products the adviser should recommend. However, given the industry's ongoing transition away from being primarily transaction-focused and towards being relationship-based, advicers have had to learn how to develop meaning

Clients 100
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Longform links: epistemic humility

Abnormal Returns

Books Annie Duke talks with Christopher Wong Michaelson abd Jennifer Tosti-Kharas, co-authors of "Is Your Work Worth It? How to Think About Meaningful Work." (annieduke.substack.com) A Q&A with Talia Sharot, co-author of "Look Again: The Power of Noticing What Was Always There." (npr.org) Insights from Rachel Somerstein's new book, "Invisible Labor: The Untold Story of the Cesarean Section.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 2.1% in May; Down 6.6% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dropped 2.1% in May Pending home sales in May slipped 2.1% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest and South posted monthly losses in transactions while the Northeast and West recorded gains. Year-over-year, all U.S. regions registered reductions. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 70.8 in May.

Sales 113

More Trending

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Praj Industries – Market Leader with a share of nearly 10% of Global Ethanol Plant

Trade Brains

Praj Industries: Imagine a company that’s not just about building, but about building a better tomorrow. They’re the engineers who can design a brewery that produces your crafted beer, but also ensure wastewater from the process. Meet Praj Industries the green guardian, a forward-thinking company which provides sustainable solutions. Praj Industries are a unique blend of innovators and environmental stewards.

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FedEx Stokes Investors With Hint of a Freight Deal

Advisor Perspectives

FedEx Corp. dropped a bomb on the market Tuesday afternoon with the announcement that it will do an “assessment” of its freight unit. Investors seemed to like the move, pushing up the shares as much as 15%, on the possibility of a windfall and a more pure-play package delivery and logistics company.

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Mariner Sues Savvy For Poaching Advisors, $60M in Client Assets

Wealth Management

Mariner is suing three advisors who recently left to join Savvy Wealth's RIA affiliate. In the suit, Mariner argues Savvy poaches books of business without “regard to contractual obligations.

Assets 89
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Is the Small Cap Premium Dead?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I was listening to WAYT and Josh mentioned and Michael seemed to agree that the small cap premium no longer exists (since the 1980s). I was hoping that this question can be discussed and dissected: What is this premium? Why doesn’t it exist anymore? How do you know? Is it still worth being owning small caps? My uneducated opinion was that small caps historically performed on par, if not better, than t.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: How to Achieve Sustainable and Scalabe Growth

Wealth Management

Duncan MacPherson from Pareto Systems offers actionable advice for financial advisors looking to unlock greater value in all that they do to build their business.

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Is Luck An Asset Class?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Taylor Pearson and Jason Buck from Mutiny Funds and managers of The Cockroach Portfolio had a short podcast about sequences of returns that is worth listening to. Toward the end, Taylor had a fascinating comment that what they are trying to do is "reduce the impact of luck" and Jason reiterated the point to say "reduce the opportunity that bad luck can hurt us.

Assets 75
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Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: How to Achieve Sustainable and Scalable Growth

Wealth Management

Duncan MacPherson from Pareto Systems offers actionable advice for financial advisors looking to unlock greater value in all that they do to build their business.

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Las Vegas May 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 4.6% YoY; Convention Traffic Up 2%

Calculated Risk

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With festivals such as EDC, coupled with convention attendance ahead of last year, May saw the destination host more than 3.6M visitors, showing a healthy 4.6% YoY gain for the month. Among the churn of rotational shows, Waste Expo returned to Las Vegas in May (14k attendees, last here in May 2022), and the destination hosted the Advanced Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo for the first time (10k+ attendees).

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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An Investment in Women Is an Investment in the Future

Wealth Management

Enacting corporate strategies and initiatives that foster an environment where women professionals can succeed is not complex, but it must be intentional, actionable and measurable.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 233,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending June 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000 , a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 238,000 to 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average.

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Joe Duran’s Rise Growth Hires CMO, M&A Exec

Wealth Management

The new additions include Jennifer Geoghegan, who previously served as The Colony Group’s first chief marketing officer, and Tony Ling, a former managing director at private equity firm Corsair Capital.

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Friday: Personal Income & Outlays, Chicago PMI

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, May 2024. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. • At 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. • At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for June).

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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$580M Texas Team Joins NewEdge Advisors From J.P. Morgan

Wealth Management

A $580 million team based in Dallas is joining NewEdge Advisors from J.P. Morgan. Last week, a $540 million team joined NewEdge from Carson Wealth.

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Unemployment Claims Down 6K, Better Than Expected

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending June 22nd, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 233,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 236,000 jobless claims.

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Supreme Court Curbs SEC’s In-House Judges in Fraud Cases

Wealth Management

The 6-3 decision deals a blow to an administrative system the SEC once used to adjudicate more than 100 cases a year before scaling back amid legal challenges.

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Durable Goods Orders: May 2024

Advisor Perspectives

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $283.08B in May. This is a 0.1% increase from the previous month and more than the expected -0.5% decline. The series is down 1.5% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.1% from the previous month and up 1.1% from one year ago.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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UBS Creates New Wealth Unit in Khan, Karofsky Strategy Reboot

Wealth Management

UBS will create a new unit — dubbed GWM Solutions — that will bring various wealth offerings under one roof. Michael Camacho is also joining UBS from JPMorgan to lead wealth management in the U.S.

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Q1 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at 1.4%, Above Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

The U.S. economy grew at a slightly faster than expected pace to start off the year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4% in Q1 2024, according to the third estimate. The latest estimate is just above the forecasted 1.3% growth but is a slowdown from the Q4 2023 GDP final estimate of 3.4%.

Economy 64
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$1B Florida Team Joins Snowden Lane From Morgan Stanley

Wealth Management

The Yarza Group will work out of Snowden Lane’s office in Coral Gables, Florida. The team boosts the firm’s AUM to $13 billion.

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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 36.1% YoY

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 35.2% YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 36.1% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.

Sales 62
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Q1 Third Estimate: GDP Per Capita versus GDP

Advisor Perspectives

The third estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 1.41%, a deceleration from 3.40% for the Q4 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 0.95%, a decrease from 2.79% for the Q4 headline number.

Numbers 59
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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below 2022 peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak Excerpt: It has been 18 years since the bubble peak. In the April Case-Shiller house price index released on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 73% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

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Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Fell Moderately in June

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index decreased in June while future expectations ticked up. The composite index came in at -8, down from -2 in May, while the future outlook inched up to 7.