Thu.Jun 27, 2024

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Inflation is Obvious But Wage Gains Seem Invisible

The Big Picture

I’ve been observing how radically unusual various sentiment readings have been for a few years now. It made little sense to me that the post-pandemic era saw sentiment levels far below major dislocations such as the ‘87 crash, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Dotcom implosion, or the 08-09 great financial crisis. We have tried to identify the causal factors by considering social media , increases in partisanship , ignorance, even trolling of pollsters.

Economics 318
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Thursday links: a wait-and-see approach

Abnormal Returns

Markets By this measure, the stock market is at record-high concentration. (axios.com) It's been awhile since we had a 2% stock market drop. (carsongroup.com) Strategy Investing is planning. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Why you shouldn't care what other investors or the markets are doing. (safalniveshak.com) Companies Monster Beverage ($MNST) is unique not only for its stock performance.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 141: Creating The Space To Have More Meaningful Money Conversations With Clients

Nerd's Eye View

The practice of asking questions has always been an integral part of the financial planning process. In the early days of the advicer industry, those questions almost exclusively dealt with facts around a client's or prospect's financial situation to determine (ultimately) what products the adviser should recommend. However, given the industry's ongoing transition away from being primarily transaction-focused and towards being relationship-based, advicers have had to learn how to develop meaning

Clients 150
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Longform links: epistemic humility

Abnormal Returns

Books Annie Duke talks with Christopher Wong Michaelson abd Jennifer Tosti-Kharas, co-authors of "Is Your Work Worth It? How to Think About Meaningful Work." (annieduke.substack.com) A Q&A with Talia Sharot, co-author of "Look Again: The Power of Noticing What Was Always There." (npr.org) Insights from Rachel Somerstein's new book, "Invisible Labor: The Untold Story of the Cesarean Section.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 2.1% in May; Down 6.6% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dropped 2.1% in May Pending home sales in May slipped 2.1% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest and South posted monthly losses in transactions while the Northeast and West recorded gains. Year-over-year, all U.S. regions registered reductions. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 70.8 in May.

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More Trending

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Is the Small Cap Premium Dead?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I was listening to WAYT and Josh mentioned and Michael seemed to agree that the small cap premium no longer exists (since the 1980s). I was hoping that this question can be discussed and dissected: What is this premium? Why doesn’t it exist anymore? How do you know? Is it still worth being owning small caps? My uneducated opinion was that small caps historically performed on par, if not better, than t.

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Praj Industries – Market Leader with a share of nearly 10% of Global Ethanol Plant

Trade Brains

Praj Industries: Imagine a company that’s not just about building, but about building a better tomorrow. They’re the engineers who can design a brewery that produces your crafted beer, but also ensure wastewater from the process. Meet Praj Industries the green guardian, a forward-thinking company which provides sustainable solutions. Praj Industries are a unique blend of innovators and environmental stewards.

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FedEx Stokes Investors With Hint of a Freight Deal

Advisor Perspectives

FedEx Corp. dropped a bomb on the market Tuesday afternoon with the announcement that it will do an “assessment” of its freight unit. Investors seemed to like the move, pushing up the shares as much as 15%, on the possibility of a windfall and a more pure-play package delivery and logistics company.

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Scared of Running Out of Money in Retirement? Here’s How to Avoid It

Carson Wealth

Have you ever thought about the possibility of living past the age of 100? It may seem unattainable, but you should probably plan for it – just in case. There are currently about 722,000 centenarians in the world, and it’s predicted that by 2050 that number will rise to 4 million. 1 With ever-increasing life expectancies, it’s no wonder 63% of American adults say they’re more afraid of running out of money in retirement than they are of death. 2 That’s why it’s vitally important to consider lo

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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The Real Reason to Worry About the Huge US Budget Deficit

Advisor Perspectives

The US government’s finances keep looking worse. The latest Congressional Budget Office projections suggest that it will need to borrow an added $400 billion this year to cover its budget deficit — and trillions more over the next decade.

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Mariner Sues Savvy For Poaching Advisors, $60M in Client Assets

Wealth Management

Mariner is suing three advisors who recently left to join Savvy Wealth's RIA affiliate. In the suit, Mariner argues Savvy poaches books of business without “regard to contractual obligations.

Assets 104
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Is Luck An Asset Class?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Taylor Pearson and Jason Buck from Mutiny Funds and managers of The Cockroach Portfolio had a short podcast about sequences of returns that is worth listening to. Toward the end, Taylor had a fascinating comment that what they are trying to do is "reduce the impact of luck" and Jason reiterated the point to say "reduce the opportunity that bad luck can hurt us.

Assets 95
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Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: How to Achieve Sustainable and Scalabe Growth

Wealth Management

Duncan MacPherson from Pareto Systems offers actionable advice for financial advisors looking to unlock greater value in all that they do to build their business.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Las Vegas May 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 4.6% YoY; Convention Traffic Up 2%

Calculated Risk

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With festivals such as EDC, coupled with convention attendance ahead of last year, May saw the destination host more than 3.6M visitors, showing a healthy 4.6% YoY gain for the month. Among the churn of rotational shows, Waste Expo returned to Las Vegas in May (14k attendees, last here in May 2022), and the destination hosted the Advanced Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo for the first time (10k+ attendees).

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An Investment in Women Is an Investment in the Future

Wealth Management

Enacting corporate strategies and initiatives that foster an environment where women professionals can succeed is not complex, but it must be intentional, actionable and measurable.

Investing 103
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 233,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending June 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000 , a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 238,000 to 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average.

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Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: How to Achieve Sustainable and Scalable Growth

Wealth Management

Duncan MacPherson from Pareto Systems offers actionable advice for financial advisors looking to unlock greater value in all that they do to build their business.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Friday: Personal Income & Outlays, Chicago PMI

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, May 2024. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. • At 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. • At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for June).

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$580M Texas Team Joins NewEdge Advisors From J.P. Morgan

Wealth Management

A $580 million team based in Dallas is joining NewEdge Advisors from J.P. Morgan. Last week, a $540 million team joined NewEdge from Carson Wealth.

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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 36.1% YoY

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 35.2% YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 36.1% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.

Sales 67
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$1B Florida Team Joins Snowden Lane From Morgan Stanley

Wealth Management

The Yarza Group will work out of Snowden Lane’s office in Coral Gables, Florida. The team boosts the firm’s AUM to $13 billion.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below 2022 peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak Excerpt: It has been 18 years since the bubble peak. In the April Case-Shiller house price index released on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 73% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

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UBS Creates New Wealth Unit in Khan, Karofsky Strategy Reboot

Wealth Management

UBS will create a new unit — dubbed GWM Solutions — that will bring various wealth offerings under one roof. Michael Camacho is also joining UBS from JPMorgan to lead wealth management in the U.S.

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Unemployment Claims Down 6K, Better Than Expected

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending June 22nd, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 233,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 236,000 jobless claims.

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Joe Duran’s Rise Growth Hires CMO, M&A Exec

Wealth Management

The new additions include Jennifer Geoghegan, who previously served as The Colony Group’s first chief marketing officer, and Tony Ling, a former managing director at private equity firm Corsair Capital.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Durable Goods Orders: May 2024

Advisor Perspectives

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $283.08B in May. This is a 0.1% increase from the previous month and more than the expected -0.5% decline. The series is down 1.5% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.1% from the previous month and up 1.1% from one year ago.

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JPMorgan Shuffles Top Private Bank Leaders as Camacho Departs

Wealth Management

Martin Marron, who had led the international private bank since 2021, has been named head of wealth-management solutions.

Banking 104
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Q1 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at 1.4%, Above Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

The U.S. economy grew at a slightly faster than expected pace to start off the year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4% in Q1 2024, according to the third estimate. The latest estimate is just above the forecasted 1.3% growth but is a slowdown from the Q4 2023 GDP final estimate of 3.4%.

Economy 64