Fri.Apr 05, 2024

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Friday links: extremely high rates

Abnormal Returns

Markets The global universe of public equities is shrinking. (ft.com) Two stocks accounted for a third of the Russell 2000's 5.2% return in Q1. (wsj.com) Magnificent Seven earning revisions are slowing. (ft.com) Strategy Rebalancing isn't market timing. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why you should 'diversify your diversifiers.' (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) FTX Behind the scenes, former FTX customers are struggling.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (April 6-7)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that customer arbitration claims related to the SEC's Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI) nearly doubled between 2022 and 2023, suggesting that greater awareness among investors of the increased standards for broker-dealers and their registered representatives could lead to greater accountability for violations of the regulation.

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MiB: Ed Hyman on Using Economic Data Opportunistically

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Ed Hyman, founder and chairman of Evercore ISI International Ltd. and vice chairman of Evercore Inc. He heads Evercore ISI’s economic research team. During his career, Hyman has been ranked as #1 in economics an unprecedented 43 consecutive times by Institutional Investor’s poll of investors. He explains the genesis of the broad and deep industry surveys ISI performs; the results provide a real-time snapshot of the economy weeks or months before it shows up in the

Economics 173
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Four Things I’m Thinking About Stocks, Housing & the Economy

A Wealth of Common Sense

Four things I’m thinking about at the moment: 1. The Covid Crash was our 1987 crash. In the 15 trading days from October 6th through October 26th in 1987, the S&P 500 was down 31%. That plunge includes Black Monday which saw the market fall more than 20% in a single day. Over the next four years from the bottom the S&P 500 was up a little less than 110% in total.

Economy 143
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Comments on March Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8%. Leisure and hospitality gained 49 thousand jobs in March and is now above pre-pandemic levels.

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More Trending

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March Employment Report: 303 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 27,000, from +229,000 to +256,000, and the change for February was revised down by 5,000, from +275,000 to +270,000.

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RIA Roundup: Following Record Q1, RIA M&A Sees 'Whopper' of a Week

Wealth Management

It was a remarkable week in the already indefatigable RIA market, with at least 14 deals announced, two new launches and more than $22 billion in transacted assets.

Assets 111
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Q1 GDP Tracking: 2% to 2.5%

Calculated Risk

From BofA: Since our update last week, 1Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.0% q/q saar. Also, 4Q GDP came in at 3.4% q/q saar in the third and final estimate, close to our 3.5% forecast. [Apr 5th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of the trade balance report were somewhat firmer than our previous expectations, and we boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.5%.

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Washington Advisor Wins Restraining Order Against Hightower

Wealth Management

Lars Knudsen called his former employer “bullies, plain and simple,” claiming the RIA made false allegations about him, including accusing him of brandishing a gun in the office.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

Advisor Perspectives

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of March 22nd, the index was at 26.456, down 0.454 from the previous week, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

Economics 105
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Adjusted for Risk: The Investment Trends Pictet Asset Management's Gert van der Geer Is Following

Wealth Management

Gert van der Geer explains how financial advisors can incorporate thematic investments in their client's investment portfolios.

Investing 109
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Three key learnings from sports to win the investment game

Truemind Capital

As many of you know, I am an investment professional. Very few know that I am also a regular table tennis player. I play at least 4 to 5 times a week. Therefore, it’s natural for me to think of analogies from table tennis that apply to winning the game of investments. Here are three fundamental qualities that you need to win in sports and investments (applicable to many sports but I will stick to table tennis here): 1.

Investing 105
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Q&A: Hines Private Wealth Solutions' Paul Ferraro

Wealth Management

Historically, the real estate investment manager relied on independent broker/dealers to reach private wealth. It wants to diversify both its distribution and its investment offerings.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Everything’s Going to Change

The Irrelevant Investor

Seven years ago I wrote a post about why negative catalysts are a million times easier to identify than positive ones: “Bad news smashes your face against an amplifier, while good news just plays quietly in the background.” Artificial intelligence, is one of the rare cases, like the internet before it, that opens up doors that where there were only walls, to quote Joseph Campbell.

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A Roundup of March's ETF Launches

Wealth Management

Around four dozen new ETFs launched in March. The majority are equities-based with a handful based off bonds or other asset types.

Assets 105
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Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in March; Down 14.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in March Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in March compared to February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.1, a decline of 14.7% from a year ago. The decline in the index was driven by the seasonal adjustment, resulting in a 0.4% month-over-month decrease.

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Crackpots Work Alone

The Better Letter

Daniel Kahneman died recently at age 90. He lived a remarkable life. As a child, he escaped the Nazis in France with his family before moving to Israel. After graduate school in the United States, he became an eminent scientist, eventually winning a Nobel Prize and the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his founding work in behavioral economics, by which he became the world’s leading authority on human error.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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How the Stock Market Impacts Investor Mental Health

Alpha Architect

Studies have found that there is a correlation between stock market downturns and an increase in hospital admissions for mental illness, an increase in domestic violence, deteriorating mental health among retirees, and increased depression rates. How the Stock Market Impacts Investor Mental Health was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Cliff (and Meb) Notes

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Meb Faber interviewed Cliff Asness in a podcast format. There was plenty of great stuff of course, this post covers some points made that stood to me as worth expanding on and exploring. They talked about when a potential investor, the context is a large institutional investor, talks about investing a small amount to see how it does for a while. Both Cliff and Meb agreed that whatever this person has in mind for "does for a while" is going to be too short a timeframe to draw any useful conclusio

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Treasury Yields Snapshot: April 5, 2024

Advisor Perspectives

The yield on the 10-year note ended April 5, 2024 at 4.39%, the 2-year note ended at 4.73%, and the 30-year at 4.54%.

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Fundamental Analysis Of Amber Enterprises – Future Plans, Financials & More

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis Of Amber Enterprises: With the rising temperature due to global warming, the requirement of having an air conditioner is increasing by the day. Some are even saying that traditionally, air conditioning was viewed as a luxury commodity but not anymore. One company that is engaged in the manufacturing of Air Conditioners is Amber Enterprise.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Begins Q2 With Weekly Loss

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 started off the second quarter of 2024 in the red, finishing down 0.95% from last week. The index is currently up 9.73% year to date and has set a new record closing high 22 times so far this year.

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Financial Considerations of Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs)

MainStreet Financial Planning

CCRCs are an all-in-one solution to aging in place for people over 60. Residents start out living independently in their own apartments, duplexes, or single-family homes in the community. As health needs evolve, CCRCs offer a seamless transition to assisted living, memory care, or skilled nursing facilities within the same community. Please visit my earlier post about Understanding CCRCs for all about how CCRCs work and their benefits, etc.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: March Employment

Advisor Perspectives

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. March saw a 303,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 3.8%.

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Sticky inflation + stubborn central banks = spirited markets

SEI

Can inflation settle near 2% on a sustained basis? We are still doubtful. Read SEI's perspectives on the markets, from our Investment Management Unit.

Banking 52
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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Wall Street Just Doesn’t Get Retirement

Advisor Perspectives

As a retirement economist — not to be confused with a retired economist, which are rare — I often find myself talking to Wall Street types who happen to be in charge of a lot of other people’s money.

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Five Fundamentally Sound NASDAQ 100 Stocks

Validea

The NASDAQ 100 has performed exceptionally well over the past decade, driven by the strong performance of technology companies that make up a significant portion of its holdings. The index is comprised of the top 100 largest non-financial stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. Looking at a 10-year chart of the NASDAQ 100’s performance against the S&P 500 is all you need to do to understand just how well it has performed.

Retail 52
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Vehicle Sales as of March 2024

Advisor Perspectives

The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward 45 years, it is now down 38.5% from that peak.

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