Tue.Dec 26, 2023

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Research links: replacing anomalies

Abnormal Returns

Quant stuff You don't want your AI model to 'hallucinate' when analyzing SEC filings. (cnbc.com) A round-up of recent research on portfolio design including 'Outperforming Equal Weighting.' (capitalspectator.com) Regime changes happen in markets. (priceactionlab.com) Research Can machine learning help select outperforming mutual funds? (alphaarchitect.com) The Achilles heel of momentum strategies is tail risk.

Economics 290
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#FA Success Ep 365: Scaling Expanded Advice Services To 100+ Team Members In A $5B AUM Enterprise, With Rob Nelson

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 365th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Rob Nelson. Rob is the CEO and Founder of NorthRock Partners, an RIA based in Minneapolis, Minnesota, that oversees $5 billion in assets under management for 1,500 client households. What's unique about Rob, though, is how while many advisory firms increasingly talk about being more than 'just' their client's financial advisor and instead their entire 'personal CFO', Rob has b

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Tuesday links: the bond market drawdown

Abnormal Returns

Markets Nick Maggiulli, "What will cause the next market decline? I have no clue." (ofdollarsanddata.com) It's not news that the stock market goes up most years. (humbledollar.com) Finance Bank of America ($BAC) has turned around its trading division. (ft.com) The most active growth stage investors of 2021-22 have pulled WAY back. (news.crunchbase.com) Global Is China's stock market finally cheap enough for another look?

Marketing 264
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The Biggest Risk in 2024

A Wealth of Common Sense

In late-2019, The Economist put out a 150 page report called The World in 2020 that offered some predictions for the coming year in geopolitics and the economy. The issue was full of thoughts and ideas from CEOs, economists, scientists, politicians and business leaders about what was coming in the year ahead. These thought leaders were worried about the lasting impacts of Brexit, the upcoming U.S.

Economy 136
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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CB Leading Economic Index: Downshift in Economic Activity Ahead

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 20th consecutive month in November as the LEI suggests a downshift in economic activity ahead. The index dropped 0.5% from last month to 103.0, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.

Economics 121

More Trending

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.8% year-over-year in October

Calculated Risk

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Accelerates in October The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

Assets 119
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Jeremy Siegel: Expect 10% to 15% Returns on Equities in 2024

Advisor Perspectives

“I believe the overall market will be up 10% to 15% from today's level by the end of 2024,” said Jeremy Siegel in our annual interview.

Marketing 122
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FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q3 2023 (released last Friday).

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Weekly Insights – December 25, 2023

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

Weekly Market Insights : Investors Boost Stocks Ahead Of Holiday Week Investor optimism and fears of missing out on future gains propelled stocks higher in the last full week of trading before year-end. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.22%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.75%. The Nasdaq Composite index advanced 1.21% for the week.

Taxes 105
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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GDP Per Capita vs. GDP

Advisor Perspectives

The final estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 4.87%, an acceleration from 2.06% for the Q2 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 4.26%, an increase from 1.60% for the Q2 headline number.

Numbers 105
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Market Commentary: Sentiment and Santa Setting the Market Tone for 2024

Carson Wealth

Four More Reasons ’24 Should Be a Good One for the Bulls “Investing is like dieting. It is simple, but not easy.” — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Looking ahead to 2024, there are four reasons for bulls to smile. Sour consumer sentiment has improved as income gains, rising home prices, stock gains, low gas prices, and falling mortgage rates have kept households in the holiday spirit.

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Consumer Confidence Ends 2023 with a Surge

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® ended the year with a surge as it climbed 9.7 points from last month, marking its largest monthly increase in almost 3 years. The index increased to 110.7 from November's downwardly revised 101.0. This month's reading was better than expected, exceeding the 103.8 forecast.

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Exercise your mind in the morning

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Matt Pais, MDRT Content Specialist It’s no secret that people can see physical results from working out their bodies. Yolie Aleman-Rodriguez , a five -year MDRT member from Tolleson, Arizona, also sees results from working out her mind. Before she exercises for one hour each morning, she reads for an hour — it might be a book pertaining to her career, a biography of a leader like John F.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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The Latest Trends in Advisor Technology

Advisor Perspectives

Advisors are being asked to provide their clients with a full suite of solutions, ranging from estate and tax planning to portfolio management, and everything in between. Clients are increasingly eager to gain access to fully customizable solutions that meet their individual needs. Advisors, meanwhile, are facing constraints while grappling with a volatile market, and their relationships with clients are being tested.

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Comments on October Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.8% year-over-year in October Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). October closing prices include some contracts signed in June, so there is a significant lag to this data.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Increases in November

Advisor Perspectives

Personal income ( excluding transfer receipts ) rose 0.5% in November and is up 5.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.6% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year.

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Finding Value In Portfolio Strategy

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Kris Abdelmessih took down covered call ETFs in a short but comprehensive blog post. It's an old post from last February so things have evolved in the space since then but his post is more about mechanics, specifically hidden costs beyond the expense ratio. The important takeaway is that liquidity providers know when funds need to come to market to sell calls.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Margin Debt Up 4.0% in November

Advisor Perspectives

FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through November. The latest debt level rose for the first time in four months to $660.89 billion. Margin debt is up 4.0% month-over-month (MoM) and up 2.7% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is up 4.2% MoM and down 0.5% YoY.

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Wednesday: Richmond Fed Mfg

Calculated Risk

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Uncanny Absence of Volatility Continues For Mortgage Rates After dropping precipitously from over 8% in late October to well under 7% by December 14th, mortgage rates have been stone silent. In the 7 business days that have followed, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate hasn't moved enough to impact the typical mortgage quote.

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The West Has a Bad Case of Temporal Whiplash

Advisor Perspectives

Something odd is happening to the world’s most valuable resource. Time is simultaneously speeding up and slowing down. We live in a world of instant communications and superfast internet. We also live in a world of infrastructure projects that crawl along for decades.

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A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

Calculated Risk

Two key points: 1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices. 2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern. This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.

Sales 64
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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Soars in December

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment soared in December, erasing all declines from the past four months, according to the final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index came in at 69.7, up 8.4 (13.7%) from the November final. The latest reading was above the forecast of 69.

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15 Surprising Financial Facts to Round out 2023, Ep #206

Financial Symmetry

As we continually help people reach for their ideal retirement we help them with their investing. Still, we also continually look for new sources of information to refresh our own perspectives but to also help our clients freshen their thinking … Continued The post 15 Surprising Financial Facts to Round out 2023, Ep #206 appeared first on Financial Symmetry, Inc.

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Fed Likely to End Bank Funding Program in March, Wrightson Says

Advisor Perspectives

The growing gap between the rate on the Federal Reserve’s nascent funding facility and what the central bank pays institutions parking reserves suggests officials will let the program expire in March, according to Wrightson ICAP.

Banking 72
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Understanding Strip Options Strategy – Profits, Breakeven Points & More

Trade Brains

Strip Options Strategy : In the financial markets, trading options can be quite rewarding, but it can also be difficult. Fortunately, various types of strategies are practised to be profitable in different market conditions. One such strategy to know is the Strip Options Strategy. In this article, we shall explore the bearish biased neutral options strategy i.e., the Strip Options Strategy.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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FHFA House Price Index Increases 0.3% in October

Advisor Perspectives

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) continued to increase in October, coming in at 416.3. U.S. house prices increased by 0.3% from the previous month and by 6.3% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.4% month-over-month and up 4.8% year-over-year.

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Season’s Greetings from Walkner Condon! Nate & Clint talk holiday traditions.

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

The post Season’s Greetings from Walkner Condon! Nate & Clint talk holiday traditions. first appeared on Walkner Condon Financial Advisors. The post Season’s Greetings from Walkner Condon! Nate & Clint talk holiday traditions. appeared first on Walkner Condon Financial Advisors.

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Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Falls in November

Advisor Perspectives

In November, nominal home values increased for a 8th straight months while "real" home values fell for a 3rd straight month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $346,048, up 0.19% from the previous month and up 2.24% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.31% month-over-month and -4.16% year-over-year.

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