Fri.Dec 29, 2023

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Friday links: an unfair advantage

Abnormal Returns

Markets Putting an estimate on long term equity market returns. (morningstar.com) Cybersecurity is a growing industry. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Cash Cash provides you optionality. (wealthfoundme.com) Be careful not to overdo your cash holdings in 2024. (morningstar.com) Reading Some investment sites worth reading every week including Sam Ro's TKer. (blakebmillard.substack.com) 2023 wasn't a bumper year for business books excluding "Power and Progress: Our Thousand Year Struggle Over Technology an

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Investing in Middle Age

A Wealth of Common Sense

A podcast listener asks: Michael and Ben are so optimistic it makes me nervous. This past month+ has been so good it can’t be real. The market goes up and gas goes down every day, the VIX is at 12, etc. Life and investing is not this easy! Help us explore the potential downsides. Do you see consumer credit risk after holiday bills come due? My wife and I are 43 and entering our peak earning years.

Investing 141
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Podcast links: the year in AI

Abnormal Returns

Science Derek Thompson with Dr. Eric Topol about some big scientific breakthroughs in 2023. (theringer.com) Jordan Harbinger talks with Oliver Stone director of the new documentary "Nuclear Now." (jordanharbinger.com) AI What happened in AI in 2023? (luxcapital.com) Russ Roberts talks with Paul Bloom about whether AI can ever be moral. (econtalk.org) Finance Barry Ritholtz talks with Stephen Suttmeier, director and chief equity technical strategist at B of A Merrill Lynch.

Portfolio 264
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The Financial Distress Puzzle

Alpha Architect

The empirical research findings demonstrate that the return premium generated by being long low-distress risk stocks and short high-distress risk stocks is persistent and that the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Fama-French three-factor models cannot explain it. Hence, we have the distress puzzle, or anomaly. The Financial Distress Puzzle was originally published at Alpha Architect.

Assets 119
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Saturday links: forgetting to have fun

Abnormal Returns

Autos Americans are driving their cars fewer miles. (wsj.com) 10 great cars from 2023 including the new Toyota ($TM) Prius. (arstechnica.com) Energy 40% of U.S. electricity production is now emissions-free. (arstechnica.com) This fracker is injecting CO2 back into used wells. (wsj.com) Animals Bedbugs are a growing problem around the world. (wsj.com) Manatee numbers in Florida are stabilizing.

Food 259

More Trending

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Fifty Shades of Grey Swans: the Risks that Matter Most

Alpha Architect

The world is complex and ever-changing; news travels at warp speed, events happen fast, and popular narratives can distract and mislead us. Many risks important for our portfolios are new, hidden, or nuanced in some underappreciated way—and likely to be misunderstood and mispriced in the markets. Other risks can hide in plain sight. Good risk management can be described as a balancing act that employs the first principles of investing, lessons from history, behavioral psychology, a little math,

Math 107
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Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024?

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

Economics 116
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2023 Economic Summary: The Year of Defied Expectations

Advisor Perspectives

The year 2023 will be remembered by economists and investors as 365 days of resiliency and defied expectations. This week’s Weekly Economics will dive into the U.S. economic landscape and summarize the major factors that shaped the nation’s economic trajectory this year.

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Dec 29th COVID Update: Hospitalizations Increased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have quadrupled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

Numbers 72
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Treasury Yields Snapshot: December 29, 2023

Advisor Perspectives

The yield on the 10-year note ended December 29, 2023 at 3.88%, the 2-year note ended at 4.23%, and the 30-year at 4.03%.

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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 25 States in November (3-Month Basis)

Calculated Risk

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for November 2023. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 25 states, decreased in 21 states, and remained stable in four , for a three-month diffusion index of 8. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 18 states, decreased in 21 states, and remained stable in 11, for a one-month diffusion index of -6.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Finishes 2023 Up 24.7%

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 ended the year up 24.73% and now sits just 0.56% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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Fundamental Analysis Of Man InfraConstruction – Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis Of Man InfraConstruction : The real estate industry is always expanding as a result of rising wealth, population, and demand. These real estate companies put the designs of buildings on a sheet of paper into reality. In this article, we are going to fundamentally analyze one such company that has been in this industry for more than 50 years.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Moving Averages: S&P Finishes December Up 4.4%

Advisor Perspectives

Valid until the market close on January 31, 2024 The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly gain of 4.42%, after a gain of 8.92% in November. After close on the last day of the month, one of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — is signaling "cash", unchanged from last month's final single "cash" signal.

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How Do the Uber-Wealthy Transfer Wealth to Their Heirs When Markets Dip

WiserAdvisor

The challenge lies not only in amassing wealth but also in the practical preservation and transfer of assets across generations. The uber-wealthy may have enough wealth to support generations ahead of them. But estate tax can eat into this wealth and leave the next generation with a smaller nest egg. Despite having significant resources, wealthy individuals face the threat of estate taxes that can reduce the wealth intended for the next generation.

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Everything Wall Street Got Wrong in 2023

Advisor Perspectives

All across Wall Street, on equities desks and bond desks, at giant firms and niche outfits, the mood was glum. It was the end of 2022 and everyone, it seemed, was game-planning for the recession they were convinced was coming.

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[cdata[ Payday Loans without the Wait: The iOS App’s Speed ]]

oXYGen Financial

![CDATA[ In the dynamic world of ever-morphing technology, a concept emerges - Instant financial solutions. A harmonious fusion of finance and digital wizardry births this platform, enabling individuals to summon monetary aid at their fingertips via their smartphones.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Chicago PMI Plummets in December

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) plummeted to 46.9 in December from 55.8 in November, marking the largest monthly drop in over two years. The latest reading is worse than the 51.0 forecast and drops the index back into contraction territory.

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

Advisor Perspectives

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of December 8th, the index was at 11.516, up 2.037 from the previous week, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

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VictoryShares US Small Cap High Dividend Volatility Wtd ETF (CSB)

Advisor Perspectives

VettaFi’s vice chairman Tom Lydon discussed the VictoryShares US Small Cap High Dividend Volatility Wtd ETF (CSB) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.

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The Dollar Is Set for Its Worst Year Since 2020

Advisor Perspectives

The dollar is poised for its worst year since the onset of the pandemic as Wall Street bets the Federal Reserve is set to lower interest rates after reining in prices.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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2024 Municipal Bond Market Outlook: Increased Optimism for the Year Ahead

Advisor Perspectives

A year of significant monetary policy tightening is coming to a close, making Franklin Templeton Fixed Income optimistic about muni bonds in the year ahead. Get the team’s 2024 muni-bond outlook.

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The New Economic Normal Isn’t Anything We’ll Recognize

Advisor Perspectives

Ever since the world was hit by a once-in-a-century pandemic, there’s been a lot of talk about “normalization.

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Our Top 10 Favorite Articles of 2023

Advisor Perspectives

From the banking crisis to the U.S. debt-ceiling saga, from inflation concerns to recession fears, from soaring bond yields to slowing consumer spending, 2023 had no shortage of issues for investors to worry about.

Banking 52
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Top 10 AP Charts of 2023

Advisor Perspectives

As 2023 comes to an end, let’s revisit the top 10 most-read AP charts of the year.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Preparing for a New Fixed Income Environment in 2024

Advisor Perspectives

Aggregate bond benchmarks rebounded this year following some of the worst showings on record in 2022. With heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in 2024, fixed income enthusiasm is perking up.

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Midcap Companies Offering Incredible Value to Investors

Advisor Perspectives

For the greater part of the year, large-cap stocks have been in pole position for most of the 2023 rally. But investors who want to add a dose of growth while maintaining large-cap stability may want to give midcap equities a closer look.

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Quarterly Commentary

Advisor Perspectives

Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.