The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Before your week ends and you head out for door, I had to share a new paper from St. Louis Fed. The title: Can Economists Predict Recessions? Short answer: Maybe a quarter ahead (but not always). Beyond that short time frame, it’s simply too variable: “These questions have taken on particular importance recently. In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of

Banking 299

Banking Economy Economics 299

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

The biz Google ($GOOGL) is sunsetting Google Podcasts in favor of YouTube Music. (techcrunch.com) Apple ($AAPL) Podcasts now pulls in more content from associated apps. (theverge.com) Spotify ($SPOT) wants to translate podcasts into different languages using the host's voice. (theverge.com) A profile of the guys behind the popular ‘Tooth and Claw’ podcast.

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Economy Insurance Management 274

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that RIA custodial platform Altruist announced that it is offering its portfolio accounting software for free to advisors who custody with the firm, offering the opportunity to advisory firms to reduce the costs of their tech stacks and perhaps presaging competition among custodians to offer more software capabilities for their advisory firm clients!

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Financial Planner Healthcare Investment Planning Clients 214

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Rates (Rising) interest rates are driving everything these days. (allstarcharts.com) Despite recent losses, investors are pouring money into bond funds. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Strategy Everything lined up against the stock market in September. (carsongroup.com) Cash is an actual hedge against stock market declines. (priceactionlab.com) Companies Brian Barrett, "Amazon is now less of a store than a mall, or maybe a sprawling bazaar.

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Financial Advising Food Media Economy 264

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Accounting

The Reformed Broker

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Perth Tolle, Gunjan Banerji, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss Amazon’s antitrust issues, a coming secular rotation in equities, investing in emerging markets and China, meme stocks are back, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

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Investments Investing Marketing Marketing 152

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August: Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $46.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent).

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Food Taxes Economics 128

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Certain positions are too be eliminated across the company, while certain units were asked to name 25% of their staffs for possible layoffs.

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A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

There are three things people in the finance world hate to admit: I don’t know. I was wrong. I didn’t expect that to happen. A master-of-the-universe mentality is pervasive in finance because it’s a group of highly educated, competitive people. They see it as a sign of weakness if you admit you don’t know what’s going to happen next.

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Investments Investing Education Marketing 122

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Also, Vise introduces AI-powered workflow; SEI updates portal, tools; a new report finds that API security incidents are rising in financial services and more.

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Financial Services 128

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

Assets

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Declined, Multi-Family Increased in August Brief excerpt: I’ve argued that there would not be a huge wave of single-family foreclosures this cycle since lending standards have been solid and most homeowners have substantial equity. That means we will not see cascading price declines like following the housing bubble.

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Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Charityvest, a new entrant into the growing DAF-related advisortech space, is leaning into community to set them apart.

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

From BofA: Overall, the data flow since our last weekly lowered our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate by a tenth to 2.8%. [Sept 29th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: The foreign trade details of this morning’s report were stronger than our previous assumptions, and we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +3.5% (qoq ar). We left our domestic final sales growth forecast unchanged on a rounded basis at +2.6%.

Economics 120

Economics Sales Investments Investing 120

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

As the RIA space has become more professionalized, so has the organizational design of top firms.

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Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

Management

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Fundamental Analysis of Exide Industries : Batteries are not just the silent powerhouses of our devices; they are the enablers of a cleaner future. These boxes of densely packed metals transform our world every day. They bring energy in the form of light to every dark house. They provide better mobility and make sure we are connected to the rest of the world.

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Planning Manufacturing Sales License 119

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Congress completes its first acquisition since CI Financial sold a minority stake to Audax, two Indiana firms merge to create $750 million AUM Wellington Wealth and a 10-person team leaves Ameriprise for OneSeven.

Wealth Management 119

Wealth Management Management 119

Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 44.1 in September from 48.7 in August. The latest reading is worse than the 47.6 forecast and marks the 13th straight month in contraction territory.

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Management 110

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

The accusations against five of the firm’s broker/dealers arrives several months after FINRA barred the firm from the industry for numerous alleged violations, including against the SEC's Regulation Best Interest rule.

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Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

Alpha Architect

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

While ESG investors can express their values through their investments, they should expect lower returns from their portfolios—though they also will be taking less investment risk. ESG Preferences Negatively Affecting Market Efficiency was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Marketing 106

Marketing Marketing Portfolio Investments 106

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Guideline's Jeff Rosenberger advocates for plan sponsors to adopt auto features.

Planning 117

Planning 117

Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

The S&P 500 fell for a fourth consecutive week, leading to the worst monthly loss of the year. The index is currently up 12.13% year to date and is 10.60% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Bruno, the managing director of WealthManagement.com, is moving on to a new role with Emigrant Partners.

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Management 111

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

Clients

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

It’s quite surprising that the Afghani, Afghanistan’s currency, became the world’s best and came to the top of global rankings in the September quarter. This is happening in a country with 79% of the population living in poverty, widespread unemployment, two-thirds of households struggling to afford basic items, 44% of people not having enough food to eat, inflation has turned into deflation, and one of the world’s worst human rights records.

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Banking Food Economics Portfolio 98

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Wealth Managers look for opportunities in an evolving risk environment.

Wealth Management 107

Wealth Management Marketing Marketing Management 107

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through July 2023. CPI Shelter was up 7.2% year-over-year in August, down from 7.7% in July, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 7.4% YoY in August , down from 7.7% in July, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

With the release of August's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.18% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to -0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.76% nominal and 3.17% real.

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Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Recently hospitalizations have tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are increasing, but far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

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Numbers 69

Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of September 15th, the index was at 9.655, up 2.343 from the previous week.

Economics 64

Economics Economy 64

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 23 September U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 September. 17-23 September 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022): • Occupancy: 68.5% (-1.6%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.97 (+2.9%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$112.96 (+1.2%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

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