Wed.Nov 01, 2023

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The Fed is Finished*

The Big Picture

Everybody is waiting with baited breath for today’s 2:30 announcement about the rates, but let me spare you the suspense: They are done with rate hikes this cycle. The next change in rates is more likely to be down than up. At least, if Powell & Company truly had a handle on what has been driving inflation for the past few years, that would be their position.

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The Most Actively Traded ETFs in the Past Month

Wealth Management

These funds saw the most activity over the past 30 days.

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Construction Spending Increased 0.4% in September

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during September 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,996.5 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised August estimate of $1,988.3 billion. emphasis added Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,555.9 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised August estimate of $1,549.6 billion.

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Exclusive: Choreo Acquires BDO’s $8.1B Wealth Management Business

Wealth Management

The deal represents the latest example of Choreo partnering with a CPA firm that owns an RIA firm.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Is The Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Personal finance links: cheat days

Abnormal Returns

Podcast Noah Kagan talks with Morgan Housel author of "Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes." (noahkagan.com) Peter Lazaroff on how to research a firm using it's Form ADV. (peterlazaroff.com) Khe Hy talks with Sarah Chappell about the challenges of walking away from good money. (podcasts.apple.com) Dan Haylett talks with Mike Drak about better retirement lifestyle design.

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Fidelity Removes High-Yield Fund as Cash Sweep Option for RIAs

Wealth Management

Effective later this year, FCASH will be the only sweep account option for all new, non-retirement brokerage accounts opened by custody clients.

More Trending

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Encourage Clients to Open DAF Accounts Before It’s Too Late

Wealth Management

Twelve questions to stimulate interest.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 27, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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IRS Indefinitely Extends Policy on Electronic Signatures

Wealth Management

The rules on using email with encryption in certain instances also were updated.

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FOMC Statement: No Change to Rates

Calculated Risk

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here , starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.

Economics 182
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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Bitcoin Rebound Fuels Renewed Interest in Crypto Investing

Wealth Management

Some financial planners are recommending clients buy the largest cryptocurrency — in moderation.

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ADP: Private Employment Increased 113,000 in October

Calculated Risk

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 113,000 Jobs in October; Annual Pay was Up 5.7% Private sector employment increased by 113,000 jobs in October and annual pay was up 5.7 percent year-over-year, according to the October ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).

Economy 182
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401(k) Real Talk Episode 83: November 1, 2023

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussions about the latest news in the RPA industry.

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BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 9.6 million in September

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 9.6 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.7 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark bl

Numbers 182
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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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Muni Market’s Five-Year Streak of November Gains Is on the Line

Wealth Management

Since 2018, state and local-government debt has gained in November.

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 214 thousand initial claims, up from 210 thousand last week.

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Tips for House Hunters Frustrated With Frozen Real Estate Market

Wealth Management

Experts say unconventional routes to homeownership exist for those that have the right setup and an openness to creativity.

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Wednesday links: sucked into the vortex

Abnormal Returns

October 2023 The returns to major asset classes in October 2023. (capitalspectator.com) The S&P 500 was returned -2.10% in October 2023, which outperformed. (on.spdji.com) Rates The Treasury market has become the hot new market. (bloomberg.com) Muni bond issuance has slowed to a crawl. (finance.yahoo.com) TIPS are looking ever more attractive. (etf.com) Companies Retailers are blaming organized theft as an excuse to close stores.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Focused on the Future: Kay Lynn Mayhue on Why Investing in Talent Is Key to a Firm’s Long-Term Success

Wealth Management

The president of Merit Financial Advisors discusses the the importance of cultivating top talent and creating a strong company culture.

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Vehicles Sales decrease to 15.5 million SAAR in October; Up 6% YoY

Calculated Risk

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for October: October U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Miss Expectations but Still Record 6% Increase (pay site). October’s results were below expectations, apparently due to weakness at the end of the month. Most automakers finished below mid-month projections for each, thus the industry’s overall weaker results can’t be blamed on underestimating the impacts to Ford, GM and Stellantis from the strike-related plant shutdowns.

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RIA Edge 100 Roundup: Mastering Talent Strategy for RIA Success

Wealth Management

Discover effective tactics for acquiring and retaining advisory talent in a competitive RIA industry.

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.1% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.0% below recent peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.1% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.0% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the August Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 68% above the bubble peak in 2006.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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401(k) Real Talk Transcript for November 1, 2023

Wealth Management

Transcript of Episode 82 of 401(k) Real Talk.

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ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 46.7% in October

Calculated Risk

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 46.7% in October, down from 49.0% in September. The employment index was at 46.8%, down from 51.2% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 45.5%, down from 49.2%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% October 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the 12th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say

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The First thing to Go in a Recession

The Irrelevant Investor

Leading Economic Indicators have been warning us of a recession for a long time. They’ve been negative on a year-over-year basis for 15 straight months, which is the second-longest streak of negative readings. Despite all the warnings and despite the Fed trying to slow the economy, it continues to march on: The unemployment rate has been below 4% for twenty straight months.

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Animal Spirits: The Biggest Rug Pull of Our Lives

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Kaplan Schweser: See here to save 10% on Kaplan Schweser CFA exam prep materials On today’s show, we discuss: Gross Domestic Product, third quarter 2023 estimate The U.S. Economy is booming (for now). What does it mean? The American boom GDPNow – Federal Reserve of Atlanta Auto loan delinquencies: What do they really mean?

Economy 106
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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.

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Doug Talks with Belle about 1042 QRP ESOP Solutions

Alpha Architect

In this episode host Belle Osvath, CFP® talks with Doug Pugliese who is the Head of 1042 QRP Strategies at Alpha Architect. They discuss 1042 exchanges which allow the owner of a closely held C-Corp to sell their equity to an employee stock purchase plan and defer long-term capital gains as long as they rollover the proceeds into a qualified investment.

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Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 118% Above Trend in October

Advisor Perspectives

Quick take : At the end of October, t he inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 118% above its long-term trend, down from September. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

Marketing 105
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10 Best Stocks With Over 1000% Returns During Modi Government

Trade Brains

10 Best Stocks With Over 1000% Returns : Over the last few years, India has witnessed a remarkable transformation in its economic landscape under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His government’s pro-business policies, regulatory reforms, and commitment to bolstering the nation’s financial markets have generated a surge in investor interest and confidence.

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Chart of the Week: Is the Fed About to Fumble?

Discipline Funds

The Fed has raised rates at an unprecedented pace in the last 18 months. And while it seems like they’ve been raising rates for a long time the reality is that they were playing catch up for those first 12 months and policy finally started getting tight in the last 6 months. This can be best visualized in this chart which is a rough approximation of how loose/tight the Fed has been over the last few years.

Economy 104
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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.