Fri.Sep 22, 2023

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Nobody Knows Anything, Dot Plot Edition

The Big Picture

The September Federal Reserve meeting is behind us we still have November and December ahead of us. Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. My advice: ignore those expectations as they have been wildly inaccurate over the past few years; they have been mostly inaccurate over the past decade. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else.

Economics 325
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Jeremy Grantham, Bubble Historian

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jeremy Grantham, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss being the “Bubble Historian”, Inflation, Modern Valuations, the Four most Dangerous Words, Real Estate, Impact Investing, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Valuation 306
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Friday links: more risk and illiquidity

Abnormal Returns

Rates Higher for longer, is the consensus. (wsj.com) Not surprisingly, 30-year mortgage rates are at 23-year highs. (mortgagenewsdaily.com) Who is buying Treasuries at these yields? (ft.com) Bond investors are being given an opportunity to lock in 2% real yields. (capitalspectator.com) Dumb Money There are no heroes in 'Dumb Money.' (morningstar.com) The so-called bad guys in 'Dumb Money' are stronger than ever.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (September 23-24)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Investment Adviser Association has petitioned the SEC to ask the regulator to change how it defines a small adviser from one with less than $25 million under management to a firm with 100 or fewer employees. The group argued that this change would help more small firms, which tend not to have the same staffing and resources compared to their larger counterparts, as the

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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Podcast links: the crypto crash

Abnormal Returns

Podcasting Jim O'Shaughnessy talks the business of podcasting with Danny Miranda. (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Khe Hy talks with Johnny Miller about the attraction of listening to podcast on 2x. (podcasts.apple.com) Zeke Faux Joshua Brown and Michael Batnick talk with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." (youtube.com) Aaron Lammer, Max Linsky, and Evan Ratliff talk with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall.

More Trending

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Should You T-Bill and Chill?

Discipline Funds

T-Bills are an incredibly attractive option at this time. At 5.5% you’re getting high income, high principal stability and tax efficiency across very predictable short-term time horizons. These are the highest rates we’ve seen since the mid-2000s so it’s a welcome change from the 10 years of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). In recent months I’ve heard the term “T-Bill and chill” more and more often.

Portfolio 134
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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • The scientific reason why you can’t stop going to Disneyland : To say a lot of people flock to Disneyland and Walt Disney World doesn’t do the mass migration justice. Each year, people descend upon the parks by the tens of millions, and many of them don’t fund the increasingly expensive experience by using their savings alone.

Medical 130
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A Sneak Peek at the Potential 2024 Estate and Gift Tax Rates

Wealth Management

Wherever there's change, there's also opportunity.

Taxes 128
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Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank : The concept of Small Finance Banks (SFB) was introduced in India in 2015. It was done with the aim of promoting financial inclusion for the unbanked and underbanked population. This population is situated generally in tier-3 & tier-4 areas. An SFBs main aim is to develop a market to promote a credit market to provide loans to MSMEs, among other lending services.

Banking 126
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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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NCAA Athlete Compensation: Supporting College Athletes with Financial Planning

Wealth Management

With NIL deals becoming more and more prevalent, student-athletes need trusted guidance on what the opportunities are and ultimately what to do based on their unique situations.

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September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.4 million SAAR, Up Sharply YoY

Calculated Risk

From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Strong Year-Over-Year Gain Despite Strike Impact (pay content). Brief excerpt: The possibility in September that other automakers will benefit much from buyers defecting from the Detroit 3 brands is negligible. The vehicles currently impacted by shutdowns either are products with high brand loyalty, in segments dominated by the three strike-impacted manufacturers or have plenty of inventory. emphasis added Click on graph for larger i

Sales 121
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A Look at CBRE Investment Management’s Push on Private Infrastructure

Wealth Management

The investment management firm has been beefing up its staff to capitalize on an asset class with strong investor interest.

Investing 119
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Sept 22nd COVID Update: Deaths and Hospitalizations Increased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Recently hospitalizations have tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are increasing, but far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

Numbers 117
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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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11 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (Sept. 22, 2023)

Wealth Management

Bisnow analyzed the rising trend of “dequity” placements—a mix between debt and equity—that some real estate investors are now using. W.P. Carey is moving forward with a two-part plan to exit the office sector. These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world at the end of the week.

Planning 119
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Top Indian Stocks Held By JP Morgan – Portfolio Analysis!

Trade Brains

Top Indian Stocks Held By JP Morgan : JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is a financial holding corporation that, through its subsidiaries, provides solutions for consumer and commercial banking, investment banking, processing financial transactions, and asset management. Consumer companies include things like credit cards, small businesses, auto loans, student loans, and merchant services, to name a few.

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RIA Roundup: NFP Acquires Divergent Wealth Advisors

Wealth Management

NFP grew its wealth and retirement business in Utah, R&R left Avantax for Commonwealth, tru Independence launched its 4th firm of 2023 and Johnson Financial, LPL and Kestra all made announcements this week.

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The Research and Development Factor

Alpha Architect

The higher returns to high R&D stocks represent compensation for heightened systematic risk not captured in standard asset pricing models. The Research and Development Factor was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Assets 115
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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The Not-So-Magnificent 493

The Irrelevant Investor

Five years ago, I wrote a blog post that would change the world of finance forever. I shared a chart that tried to visualize just how dominant the large stocks had gotten in the cap-weighted S&P 500. In July 2018, with every FAAMG stock hitting an all-time high, these five companies had a market capitalization that was equal to the bottom 282 names in the index.

Marketing 114
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Puerto Rico Is Being Far Too Generous With Rich Investors

Wealth Management

The US commonwealth has become one of the world’s most attractive capital gains tax havens, and its residents don’t have much to show for it.

Taxes 112
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S&P 500 Snapshot: September Struggles Continue

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 struggled for most of the week as the index posted its third consecutive weekly loss. The index is currently up 12.97% year to date and is 9.93% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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Private Equity Won’t Diversify Your Portfolio

Wealth Management

Investing in such funds makes sense if you want more risk and illiquidity — and are willing to pay for it.

Portfolio 106
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Crafting Impact: Revenue Growth And Efficiency For Finance Professionals

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

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A Goodbye to Summer

Integrity Financial Planning

A crisp breeze bites the warm summer. Each remaining warm day is an invitation to bask in the season’s waning glow, a chance to relish the lingering warmth before autumn carries it away. Some may claim summer is defined by grand adventures and exotic vacations. But, truly, isn’t summer found in the simplest of moments? In the hum of cicadas as they serenade the sunset, the rustling of emerald leaves dancing to the rhythm of a balmy breeze, the scent of ripe peaches as they blush in t

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SEC Fines Goldman Sachs, Citadel Over Trading Errors

Wealth Management

The SEC fined Goldman Sachs $6 million for sending inaccurate or incomplete trading data and Citadel $7 million for breaking short sales labeling rules and incorrectly marking millions of trade orders.

Sales 89
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Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in August

Calculated Risk

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Performance Remains Strong, but Slowing Improvement Suggests Delinquencies May Be Nearing Cycle Lows • At 3.17%, the U.S. delinquency rate improved by 4 basis points in August and is nearly a full percentage point below its 2015-2019 same-month average • However, steady slowing in the annual rate of improvement -- from -40% in early 2022 to -0.8% as of August – suggests delinquency rates may be nearing cycle lows • Serious delinquencies (90+

Numbers 72
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Underlying Inflation Gauge Falls for 14th Straight Month

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for August is 3.0%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.3%, unchanged from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.3%.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 40 States in August (3-Month Basis)

Calculated Risk

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for August 2023. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 40 states, decreased in eight states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 64. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 30 states, decreased in 13 states, and remained stable in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 34.

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How Will Indian Stock Markets React to 2024 Elections?

Trade Brains

Do elections have any impact on the stock market? Long story short, yes! Not only the elections but also the presentation of the budget, economic policies, the popularity of the leader, economic events and other factors, can send ripples through the stock market. Before the May 2014 election, the Sensex went up by 16.6% in a span of one year and by 8% in just one month before the election results, according to an Economic Times report.

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Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 22, 2023

Advisor Perspectives

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 22, 2023 at 4.44%, the 2-year note ended at 5.10%, and the 30-year at 4.53%.

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