The Big Picture
DECEMBER 8, 2023
You may have missed the most important data point in today’s Employment report. It wasn’t that Nonfarm payrolls increased by 199,000 in November, somewhat higher than expected; nor was it the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.7% in November, from 3.9% in October; nor was it that Wages continued to rise at a modest pace, with average hourly earnings up 0.6%.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Strategy What happens after a 20% up year for the stock market? (awealthofcommonsense.com) No investor, or investment strategy, is perfect. (morningstar.com) Fund management The factor ETF space has gotten crowded. (riabiz.com) Blackrock ($BLK) is building its own AI tools. (pionline.com) Books Amy Edmondson has won the Financial Times and Schroders Business Book of the Year Award for "Right Kind of Wrong: Why Learning to Fail Can Teach Us to Thrive.
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Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a new study from research firm Cerulli has found that investors' willingness to pay for financial advice has risen over the last 15 years, with more investors reporting using a financial advisor (and a decreasing share considering themselves "self-directed"), in spite of the proliferation of DIY investing options in the internet era – which highlights the value that
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 8, 2023
The biz The podcasting industry is facing a reckoning. (techcrunch.com) Podcast companies are turning to advertising to get the word out. (wsj.com) Spotify ($SPOT) has cancelled ‘Heavyweight,’ and ‘Stolen.’ (bloomberg.com) Audio The 10 best audiobooks of 2023 including 'The Secret Hours' by Mick Herron, narrated by Gerard Doyle. (slate.com) Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ podcast, 'Wiser Than' was named Apple's ($AAPL) podcast of the year.
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Carson Wealth
DECEMBER 8, 2023
By Mark N. Petersen, CPA, CFP ® , CP, Affluent Wealth Planning The holidays are upon us! That must mean it’s time to roll up my sleeves and get to work on year-end financial planning – with an emphasis on 2023 income tax. One consideration this year is that we’re two years from the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TJCA). This will mean: · Elimination of the state and local tax cap of $10,000 · The return of other itemized deductions in 2026 · Reversion of individua
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A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 8, 2023
One of my favorite scenes from the final season of Succession is when Cousin Greg turns on his grandfather and gets cut out of the will: Subscribe to The Compound so you never miss an episode. Further Reading: Careful What You Wish For Now here’s what I’ve been reading lately: It’s more than just vibes (Kyla’s Newsletter) Why do we have to keep re-reading the same 3 articles?
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 8, 2023
This is the held-away asset management platform's second capital raise since pivoting and changing its name from FeeX in February 2022.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 8, 2023
The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in November. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 158 thousand jobs since Febr
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Investing in “smart beta” was the rage in the early 2000s, as small-cap-value stocks vaulted over large-cap-growth stocks. But like all supercharged investment strategies, it didn’t last. Factors premiums have not materialized since the financial crisis. For most of the last decade, value has underperformed growth, driving the underperformance of the largest category of smart-beta strategies.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Migrating to modern cloud-based services is helping CIO Laura Hubbell not only serve clients better but scale the business at $7.4 billion AUM SignatureFD.
Alpha Architect
DECEMBER 8, 2023
While the research shows that fund managers are skilled, skill doesn’t translate into outperformance due to the diseconomies of scale. Diseconomies of Scale in Investing was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 8, 2023
No less than 13 deals were announced in the RIA space this week, along with a rebrand, a new launch and a couple of talent grabs.
Integrity Financial Planning
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Financial planning is a crucial aspect of leading a balanced and comfortable life. It can also help you reach your retirement savings goals and get a better idea of what your retirement expenses might look like. Financial planning involves setting financial goals, budgeting, and making informed decisions about investments to meet those goals. When you’ve been disciplined, met your financial targets, and have some extra funds to spare, it’s important to reward yourself!
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Migrating to modern cloud-based services is helping CIO Laura Hubbell not only serve clients better but scale the business at $7.4 billion AUM SignatureFD.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 8, 2023
From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and government. Employment also increased in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Employment in retail trade declined. he change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 35,000, from +297,000 to +262,000, and the change for
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
DECEMBER 8, 2023
AQR alum Aaron Brown, writing for Bloomberg, laid out a case for allocating to Bitcoin that I haven't heard before. The article is reasonably two-sided spelling out what could lead to wider adoption and what might stifle wider adoption all without giving any sort of price target. His suggested allocation, more precisely the allocation he chose for himself is 3%.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Consumer sentiment soared in December, erasing all declines from the past four months, according to the preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index came in at 69.4, up 8.1 (13.2%) from the November final. This morning's reading was above the forecast of 62.0.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have more almost tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 8, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended December 8, 2023 at 4.23%, the 2-year note ended at 4.71%, and the 30-year at 4.31%.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 8, 2023
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. In the first 11 months of 2023, total carloads were 10.82 million, up 0.2% (21,700 carloads) over last year and up 0.5% (53,682 carloads) over 2021. In 2023 through November, intermodal originations totaled 11.68 million, down 6.0% (748,046 units) from 2022 and down 10.6% (1.39 million units) from 2021. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 8, 2023
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of November 24th, the index was at 9.465, down 1.270 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA
What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: In 2021, I pointed out that with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, combined with the expiration of a large number of forbearance plans, we would see an increase in REOs in late 2022 and into 2023. And there was a slight increase.
Trade Brains
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Big Mac Index : Ever wondered how much an item you consume in India would cost in other countries? You’ve probably noticed that prices for the same things can vary between countries. Well, there’s this fun yet insightful indicator of currency strength called the “Big Mac Index”, and yes, it’s all about burgers! what exactly is the Big Mac Index?
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 8, 2023
From BofA: Our 4Q GDP tracking estimate remains at 1.0% q/q saar as higher than expected October construction spending was offset by lower than expected vehicle sales in November and a small downward revision in core capital goods orders in the final October print. [Dec 6th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.4% (qoq ar).
Trade Brains
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Coromandel International Vs FACT: Fertilizers are the unsung heroes behind our harvest’s bounty, playing a critical role in securing global food security. These nutrient-rich chemical compositions enable plants to develop vigorously and produce nutritious crops. Two such companies that work in this sector are Coromandel International and FACT Limited.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 8, 2023
The S&P 500 posted its highest close of the year on Friday and now sits just 4.01% below its record close from January 3, 2022. A late week rally led the index to its sixth consecutive week of gains as it finished 0.2% up from last Friday. The index is currently up 20.40% year to date.
Integrity Financial Planning
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Financial planning is a crucial aspect of leading a balanced and comfortable life. It can also help you reach your retirement savings goals and get a better idea of what your retirement expenses might look like. Financial planning involves setting financial goals, budgeting, and making informed decisions about investments to meet those goals. When you’ve been disciplined, met your financial targets, and have some extra funds to spare, it’s important to reward yourself!
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 8, 2023
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. November saw a 199,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%.
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