Thu.Jan 18, 2024

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Thursday links: navigating a minefield

Abnormal Returns

Markets Managed futures did not have a great 2023. (rcmalternatives.com) Blackrock's ($BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ($IBIT) has surpassed $1 billion in AUM. (blockworks.co) Strategy How to use AI to do fundamental company analysis. (howardlindzon.com) How to use a negative checklist. (novelinvestor.com) Finance Does private credit actually reduce systemic financial risk?

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What is the Historical Rate of Return on Housing?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Ben, I love reading your work. Stocks, bonds, and cash are the categories to compare but it hit me as a “boomer” retired, what about home ownership as a comparison? Stay warm! This question was in response to my recent piece on the historical returns for stocks, bonds and cash: There are typically a fair number of requests for other asset classes whenever I post this kind of data.

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Longform links: the whole journey

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters" by Brian Klass. (theatlantic.com) An excerpt from Lisa Whittington-Hill’s new book, "The Go-Go’s: Beauty and the Beat." (longreads.com) Business Problems at Boeing ($BA) have been brewing for a long time. (wsj.com) How the venture capital industry has evolved from its cottage industry beginnings.

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Alphathena’s AI-Enabled Direct Indexing Tool Scores $4M in VC Funding

Wealth Management

Able to create direct indexing portfolios in minutes, the SaaS platform has attracted funding in a venture capital round led by ETFS Capital.

Portfolio 119
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction A brief excerpt: The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red). Total starts were up 7.6% in December compared to December 2022.

Numbers 117

More Trending

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Recession Likely in the First Half of 2024

Advisor Perspectives

From March 2022 to July of this year, the Fed raised rates by 500 basis points. But the economy has done well this year, with GDP growth of 2.0%, 2.1% and 5.2% in the first three quarters. Does that mean the lagged impacts of the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening cycle will be fully felt in the year ahead? Is a second wave of inflation remains a major risk?

Economy 105
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Plancorp: Dipping A Toe In The AI Waters, With An Eye On Cybersecurity

Wealth Management

Mike Esson, chief information security officer of $6 billion AUM Plancorp, seeks an edge through the latest technology but always weighs it against data security.

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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 7.9% YoY; New Listings up 7.0% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending January 13, 2024 • Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 7.9% above year ago levels. Active listings in the past week grew by 7.9% above the previous year, the 10th straight week of annual growth. Active inventory picked up slightly compared to the previous week, diverging from the typical seasonal pattern which would suggest falling inventory

Sales 98
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DOJ Charges Former Citi Advisor With Defrauding Clients While Funding Film Career

Wealth Management

Helen Grace Caldwell faces 20 years in prison after being charged with wire fraud in a scheme that allegedly stole $1.5 million from clients, according to the Justice Department.

Clients 111
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Let's Light This Candle

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

I thought of this commercial from the Internet bubble, it was a classic and it is relevant now. The other day I mentioned that Grayscale filed for a Bitcoin covered call ETF that would track GBTC using a synthetic exposure (long call/short put) to replicate long exposure and then sell calls to generate income. Roundhill beat Grayscale to the market, sort of, with the Bitcoin Covered Call Strategy ETF (YBTC).

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Robinhood Pays $7.5M To Settle Massachusetts "Gamification" Charge

Wealth Management

The brokerage app sued Commonwealth Secretary William Galvin, arguing against the validity of Massachusetts’ fiduciary standard. The state’s highest court ruled in favor of Galvin.

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6 topics to talk with clients about early in the year

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Bryce Sanders Let’s hear it for optimism! As a financial advisor, I loved the start of a new year. From day one, the firm’s biggest producers and I were on the same starting line. Other advisors might be pessimistic, seeing new goals to be achieved from that same starting line. Regardless of your outlook, you need clients to do business. How are you going to make that happen?

Clients 77
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The Compound and Friends: Adam Parker Returns

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by Jensen Investment Management: See here for more information on Jensen’s quality-focused strategies On today’s show, we discuss: Banks are the best-performing industry over the last three months Consumers start 2024 on strong footing after a jolly holiday Mortgage demand surges more than 10% as lower interest rates lure homebuyers Listen here: Char.

Banking 75
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Housing Starts Fall 4.3% in December

Advisor Perspectives

In December, housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.460 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.426 million. This marks a 4.3% decrease from November and a 7.6% rise compared to one year ago.

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Nova AgriTech IPO Review – GMP, Details, Price & More

Trade Brains

Nova AgriTech IPO Review: The Agricultural sector continues to remain the largest employer in India, with 58% of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. There is a growing population and a drop in arable land, all of this requires farmers to produce more grains than they did before. Today we will talk about one such Company that produces consumables in the form of crop protection products.

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LA Port Inbound Traffic Increased Year-over-year in December

Calculated Risk

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted several years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast ( recently the drought in Panama has slowed canal traffic ). Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nati

Retail 64
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Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Falls in December

Advisor Perspectives

In December, nominal home values increased for a 9th straight months while "real" home values fell for a 4th straight month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $342,685, up 0.12% from the previous month and up 2.64% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.35% month-over-month and -3.49% year-over-year.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December; California Home Sales Down 7.1% YoY in December

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Here is some more local data prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release December existing home sales on Friday, January 19th, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 3.84 million SAAR, up from 3.82 million in November.

Sales 64
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Unemployment Claims Drop to Lowest Level Since September 2022

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending January 13, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 187,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 207,000 and marks the lowest level for initial jobless claims since September 2022.

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Friday: Existing Home Sales

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.84 million SAAR, up from 3.82 million. • Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January).

Sales 64
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Building Permits Rise 1.9% in December

Advisor Perspectives

In December, building permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.495 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.480 million. This marks a 1.9% increase from November and a 6.1% rise compared to one year ago.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Housing Starts Decreased to 1.460 million Annual Rate in December

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,460,000. This is 4.3 percent below the revised November estimate of 1,525,000, but is 7.6 percent above the December 2022 rate of 1,357,000. Single‐family housing starts in December were at a rate of 1,027,000; this is 8.6 percent below the revised November figure of 1,124,000.

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Bajaj Auto Surpasses ?2 Lakh Cr Mcap – Check Revenue Segments and Outlook

Trade Brains

Bajaj Auto : On January 8, 2024, Bajaj Auto Ltd’s market capitalization surged ₹2 lakh crore to become the third largest automobile company, surpassing Mahindra and Mahindra. With a market valuation of ₹3.13 lakh crore, Maruti Suzuki continues to be the most valuable auto stock in the nation; Tata Motors is second with a market capitalization of ₹2.9 lakh crore.

Sales 59
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 187,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending January 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 187,000 , a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when it was 182,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 203,250, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average.

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Market Update – Q4 2023

ModernAdvisor

Commentary Results from the Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey released in October showed business sentiment was weak with high interest rates expected to weigh on consumer demand. Q3 GDP released at the end of November showed the economy contracted at a -1.1% annualized pace in the third quarter, wiping out most of the Q2 revised +1.4% increase.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Blackstone and BlackRock Master the Art of Moneymaking

Advisor Perspectives

Two major events are shaking up the asset-management world. Blackstone Inc. raised $1.3 billion for its first retail private equity fund, targeting those who have at least $5 million to invest.

Retail 59
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Membership is Bigger in Texas

NAIFA Advisor Today

This week we brought staff and leaders together to host a new member orientation for the Texas state chapter. With so many new members coming into the NAIFA Family from the merger with FSP, the NAIFA-Texas board thought it would be a great idea to supplement the orientation that NAIFA holds every week with their "Welcome to Your State Chapter" so that they could tell members all about the history, culture, and activities that make NAIFA-Texas uniquely NAIFA-Texas.

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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Continued to Decline in January

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index inched up this month but remained in negative territory, marking the 5th straight month of contraction and continuing to indicate overall decline. In January, the index rose to -10.6 from -12.8 in December, coming in below the forecast of -7.0. The six-month outlook dropped to -4.0, its lowest level since May.