Mon.Jan 08, 2024

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Are You Bullish or Bearish in 2024?

The Big Picture

What are the Bull and Bear cases for 2024? I don’t do annual forecasts1 because the short-term is way too random. Instead, I prefer to consider market history and recent data, and ask “What are the possible and probable outcomes for this year?” I find it very useful as an investor to be able to see both sides of the bull-bear debate.

Economy 329
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Monday links: sowing and reaping

Abnormal Returns

Markets Six reasons to bullish. Six reasons to be bearish. (ritholtz.com) The 10 biggest FTSE 100 companies by market cap, over time. (ft.com) What you need to know about the spread on mortgage bonds. (housingbrief.com) Finance The spot Bitcoin ETF price war is already on. (axios.com) Property and casualty insurance providers are struggling to keep up with weather-related claims.

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The Future Of Financial Advice: How Tech and Approaches In 2030 Will Differ From Today

Nerd's Eye View

Professional service industries tend to evolve over time as the regulatory environment evolves and new technologies emerge. For instance, the financial advice industry has seen many changes to regulations (for both advisors and their clients), advisor business models, and the advisor technology landscape. These changes all have the potential to change the industry by shifting the current focus on selling financial products (including financial plans themselves) to providing a more in-depth and p

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Adviser links: advancing your business

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Michael Kitces talks adviser well-being with Stevyn Guinnip who is the founder of Grow Wellthy, a health and wellness consulting firm. (kitces.com) Thomas Kopelman and Jacob Turner talks with Julia Gurner about the power of working with a coach. (podcasts.apple.com) Career Why it's so important to invest in the next generation of advisers. (riaintel.com) Some things veteran advisers wished they knew when starting out including 'Run your business like a business.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate in "Uncharted Territory" at Record High

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate in "Uncharted Territory" at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s: The national office vacancy rate rose 40 bps to a record-breaking 19.6% , shattering the previous record of 19.3% set twice previously: once in 1986 driven by a five-year period of significant inventory expansion and the other in 1991 during the Savings and Loans Crisis.

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Global Factor Performance: January 2024

Alpha Architect

Standardized Performance Factor Performance Factor Exposures Factor Premiums Factor Attribution Factor Data Downloads Global Factor Performance: January 2024 was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Live from Heckerling: 2023 Estate and Tax Planning Developments

Wealth Management

What were the significant tax and non-tax issues of last year? Speakers at Heckerling discuss tax planning, estate planning and philanthropy cases.

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5 Major UPI Changes You Absolutely Can’t Ignore in 2024

Trade Brains

Major UPI Changes : UPI, or Unified Payment Interface, has been traveling the world since 2021 and has seen a lot of dynamic changes in recent years. In August last year, UPI recorded over 10 billion transactions, which is approx. 2 billion more than the entire global population, transforming the landscape of digital payments. Who would have ever thought that it could position India as a leader in real-time payment transactions worldwide, attracting around 260 million users so far!

Banking 102
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REITs End 2023 on a High Note Amid Favorable Interest Rate Outlook

Wealth Management

When the end of a monetary tightening cycle is near, real estate investment trusts outperform. All signs indicate positive returns will continue in 2024, argues Edward F. Pierzak, senior vice president of research for the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts.

Investing 114
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Weekly Market Insights – January 8, 2024

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

Weekly Market Insights : New Years Blues Stocks retreated in the first trading week of 2024, struggling a bit after a celebratory end to last year as investors second-guessed Fed signals and fretted over lingering inflation concerns. New Year Blues Stocks got off to a rough first week of the new year, with tech names leading the week’s decline. Several market observers called it the “reverse Goldilocks” effect, where the market decided investors were getting a little too excited over the prospec

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Live from Heckerling: Planning for Modest Estates

Wealth Management

The opening session of the Heckerling Conference focused on estate planning tips for "modest"estates, those between $2 and $20 million.

Planning 119
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Market Commentary: Slow Start For Stocks Despite Solid Job Gains

Carson Wealth

2023 Stock Gains Suggest a Solid (But Not Spectacular) 2024 The S&P 500 finally fell last week after nine consecutive weeks of gains, the longest weekly winning streak since 2004. Some investors worry the decline during the normally bullish end-of-year/early-new-year period may be sending a negative signal. But we believe stocks simply needed a breather and don’t view it as a significant warning sign.

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What’s Next For Envestnet After Bill Crager

Wealth Management

Since taking over as CEO in 2019 following co-founder Jud Bergman’s death in 2019, the company Crager co-founded has weathered several storms.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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XYPN Advocacy Vision Statement

XY Planning Network

Looking forward to 2024 and beyond, our Executives sat down and captured their beliefs and memorialized goals for our advocacy efforts in a vision statement. All of us here at XYPN are on a mission to help others live their great lives and our advocacy efforts are a direct extension of that mission—for our members, their clients, and all fiduciary planners.

Clients 96
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Bill Crager to Step Down as Envestnet CEO

Wealth Management

Board chairman James Fox will serve as Envestnet's interim CEO until a successor is found following Bill Crager's departure.

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Is a quantitative defensive factor strategy feasible? Yes.

Alpha Architect

We examine the research around the question of what the proper framework for building a defensive factor strategy is. Is a quantitative defensive factor strategy feasible? Yes. was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Assets 95
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2024 will be the Year of the PEPs

Wealth Management

Record keepers are the biggest inhibitors to more extensive implentation of PEPs, or pooled employer plans.

Planning 119
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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Housing January 8th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.7% Week-over-week, Up 5.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.7% week-over-week. Inventory will likely decrease seasonally until the Spring. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of January 5th, inventory was at 499 thousand (7-day average), compared to 513 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.

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Retirement Visions Joins Redhawk Wealth Advisors

Wealth Management

The 10-person Retirement Visions team left Securities America to harness technology, compliance and administrative support by Redhawk Wealth Ventures.

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Systeme.io Review

Good Financial Cents

Systeme.io has emerged as a versatile tool in the digital marketing landscape, often met with initial skepticism due to its bold claim of being an all-encompassing, free platform. This skepticism is not uncommon; many assume that a free, all-in-one software solution might compromise on quality. However, as experienced firsthand, Systeme.io defies these expectations, offering robust functionality that genuinely surprises new users.

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Grayscale’s 1.5% Fee Is Higher Than Spot Bitcoin ETF Competitors Like Fidelity, Invesco

Wealth Management

The race-to-the-bottom on fees is a feature of the highly competitive $8 trillion US ETF industry, where even a couple of basis points of difference can translate into millions of dollars worth of inflows.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Multiple Jobholders are 5.4% of All Employed

Advisor Perspectives

Multiple jobholders account for 5.4% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.

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Live From Heckerling: ESG Investing for Trustees

Wealth Management

Is ESG investing sustainable? Speakers at Heckerling discuss ESG investing within the lens of estate planning.

Investing 115
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Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased 0.5% in December; Down 7.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decrease in December, End Year Down 7.0% Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 0.5% in December from November. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 204.0, down 7.0% from a year ago. Compared to December 2021, used-vehicle values are down nearly 21%.

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Blackstone’s First Private Equity Fund for Rich Individuals Gets $1.3B

Wealth Management

Dubbed BXPE, the fund will invest in private strategies including startups, fund stakes and the buyouts that Blackstone Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman is known for.

Startup 95
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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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World Markets Watchlist: January 8, 2024

Advisor Perspectives

Only one of the eight indexes on our world watch list has posted gains through January 8, 2024. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 0.44%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in second with a YTD loss of 0.26% while Germany's DAXK finished in third with a YTD loss of 0.32%.

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Talk Your Book: Reliable Monthly Payouts to Age 100

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by LifeX: On today’s show, we spoke with Nate Conrad, Head of LifeX to discuss their new monthly retirement income funds launching in January. On today’s show, we discuss: What the LifeX income fund is and how it works The difference between this fund, and annuities Why this fund had not existed yet Getting under the hood of the LifeX income fund, and how it&#82.

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Question #5 for 2024: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2024?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 5) Inflation: Core PCE was up 3.2% YoY through November.