Thu.Dec 21, 2023

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At the Money: Seasonality In Stocks

The Big Picture

 At the Money: Seasonality In Stocks with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. (Dec 20, 2023) How do historical patterns and seasonality affect equities? Can these patterns successfully inform future investments? In this episode, I speak with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac to discuss seasonal patterns in equities. He’s devoted much of his career to the study of historical patterns and market seasonality in conjunction with fundamental and technical analysis.

Numbers 318
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Thursday links: unbearable uncertainty

Abnormal Returns

Markets Small cap stocks still look cheap relative to large caps. (morningstar.com) What do you get when you combine momentum and quality? (downtownjoshbrown.com) Finance Citigroup ($C) is now getting out of the distressed debt trading business. (finance.yahoo.com) Banks are clawing to hold onto a chunk of the leveraged lending market. (bloomberg.com) Sweden's stock market may cut back their trading hours.

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The Top Nine WealthManagement.com Podcasts for 2023

Wealth Management

These nine episodes provide diverse points of view, cutting-edge information, inspirational guests and valuable insights to help advisors improve both their professional and personal lives.

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How to Buy a House in Today’s Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: What would you advise as an alternative to getting on the “real estate ladder”? Saving and waiting for lower interest rates? Or investing in the market until you can put down a larger down payment? Offering advice on the home buying process is even harder than offering investment advice without more context. Investing is personal but your living situation has even more idiosyncratic risks involv.

Marketing 108
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 205,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending December 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 205,000 , an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,000, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average.

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More Trending

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Our Top 10 Most Popular Investing Articles of 2023

Advisor Perspectives

As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read investment and planning articles over the past 12 months. Tomorrow, we will highlight the 10 most-read practice management articles.

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Atria Adds $175M Texas Team; Cetera Recruits $112M California Advisor

Wealth Management

Gaschen, Berlingeri & Casebolt joins Atria from Cetera and Edward Jones, while advisor Peter Bell moves to a Cetera OSJ via LPL.

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Are 0dte Funds A Bigger Threat To Human Life Than AI?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

ProShares jumped into the covered call fray with its S&P 500 High Income ETF (ISPY). That is some symbol. The point of differentiation for ISPY is that instead of selling calls with a monthly expiration it sells calls out of the money with a daily expiration (0dte). Defiance ETFs has three funds that sell 0dte puts. The volume generally for 0dte options is very high.

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Diversifying Client Portfolios With Gold

Wealth Management

Education about gold investments is key to ensuring clients have a well-balanced portfolio that can withstand economic fluctuations.

Portfolio 115
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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December Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.7 million SAAR, Up 16% YoY

Calculated Risk

From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking to End Year on Positive Note (pay content). Brief excerpt: Higher inventory and increased discounting, combined with a rebound in fleet deliveries, will lead December's results. With Q4 totaling a 15.5 million-unit annualized rate, sales in entire-2023 will total a 4-year-high 15.4 million units.

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Parents Are Risking Their Retirements to Support Adult Children

Wealth Management

With younger generations facing higher housing costs and a tricky job market, many are living at home and getting financial assistance from their families.

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Q3 GDP Growth Revised down to 4.9% Annual Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2023 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

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X Marks the Spot: Focus on Digital Signature Fraud in 2024

Wealth Management

Avoid an unnecessary and expensive penalty by having these policies and procedures in place regarding e-signatures.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Durable Goods, New Home Sales

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for November. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase. • Also at 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for no change in the PCE price index, and the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

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Mindy Diamond on Independence: An Advisor’s Guide to 2024

Wealth Management

A review of the most influential trends that impacted advisors in 2023, plus predictions and actionable guidance for 2024.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.1% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 December U.S. hotel performance was expectedly lower from the previous week, but year-over-year comparisons were positive, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 December. 10-16 December 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022): • Occupancy: 54.7% (+1.1%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$142.62 (+4.7%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$77.99 (+5.8%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel

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Losses in Your Portfolio Can Boost Returns—and Cut Taxes

Wealth Management

Strategic tax-loss harvesting can improve a portfolio’s after-tax returns and offset ordinary income.

Taxes 103
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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly in November

Calculated Risk

From ICE (formerly Black Knight): ICE First Look at November Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Historically Low Despite Seasonal Rise; Performance of Recent Originations Worth Watching • The national delinquency rate edged higher to 3.39% in November – down 10 basis points (bps) from the same time last year – but remains 64 bps below pre-pandemic levels • Likewise, early-stage delinquencies among VA loans hit their highest non-pandemic levels since 2009, as rising interest rates have begun to

Numbers 57
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Fiduciary Papers #15: The Prudent Investor Rule, 401k Accounts, and Tax-Efficient Investing

Ron A. Rhodes

In the 401(k) world there has for many years been the option for plan participants to contribute to Roth 401(k) accounts, rather than traditional 401(k) account.

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Media: The Outlook for 2024 and Diversifying Across Time

Discipline Funds

Is there a chance that the market has gotten way ahead of the Federal Reserve? Will core inflation continue to linger in 2024? Cullen Roche expects interest rate volatility, even with continued stabilization. The U.S. consumer seems to be incredibly resilient. How can investors manage their fixed income portfolio? Roche says that for a more immediate time horizon, it is important to extend T-Bill maturities.

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Our Top 10 Most-Popular Practice Management Articles of 2023

Advisor Perspectives

As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read practice management articles over the past 12 months. Tomorrow, we will highlight the 10 best articles you probably missed.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Show Us of Your Portfolio II: Larry Swedroe on Alternatives and Interval Funds

Validea

This episode is the first part II our Show Us Your Portfolio series. When we originally spoke to Larry Swedroe, we were very intrigued by his use of illiquid alternatives within his portfolio. But we didn’t have time in the original interview to dig into the details of his strategy and the individual components of it. In this interview , we correct that.

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How Muni-Bond ETFs Help with Tax-Loss Harvesting

Advisor Perspectives

As 2023 is nearing its end, tax-loss harvesting season is in full swing. This is often top of mind for advisors and their clients. But Capital Group is seeing some advisors hesitate to harvest losses due to ongoing volatility in the equity and bond markets, and general uncertainty about 2024. My guest, Courtney Wolf, joins me today to talk about why to deploy cash and use tax-loss harvesting via active fixed income ETFs.

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SEI Acquires Altigo

SEI

SEI to Leverage Unique Industry Position to Meet Market Demand and Streamline Investment Process for Alternatives

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Private Credit Should Be Welcomed — and Watched

Advisor Perspectives

Since the financial crisis of 2008, policymakers have been cracking down on leverage at banks. As a result, banks cut back on any lending that didn’t seem profitable enough if it wasn’t juiced by leverage.

Banking 52
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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Fiduciary Papers #16: The Annuitization Decision and the Need for Conflict-Free Advice

Ron A. Rhodes

In recent years a major development has occurred with respect to annuities … more and more insurance companies are offering annuity products with no commissions.

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Treasuries Rally With Global Bonds as Traders Lift Rate-Cut Bets

Advisor Perspectives

Treasuries rallied along with global bonds, sending benchmark yields to multi-month lows, as traders bet the world is entering a new, disinflationary period by wagering on more interest-rate cuts next year.

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Longform links: existential ramifications

Abnormal Returns

Books Five insights from "Big Fiction: How Conglomeration Changed the Publishing Industry and American Literature" by Dan Sinykin. (nextbigideaclub.com) Anne Helen Petersen talks with Amy Schiller author of "The Price of Humanity: How Philanthropy Went Wrong — And How to Fix It." (annehelen.substack.com) Technology A true AI assistant is Google's ($GOOGL) real moonshot.