Thu.Jul 25, 2024

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Longform links: beliefs over evidence

Abnormal Returns

Books A rave review of "How Tyrants Fall" by Marcel Dirsus. (forkingpaths.co) Insights from "Maxims for Thinking Analytically" by Dan Levy. (novelinvestor.com) Jim Pethokoukis talks with Ruchir Sharma, author of "What Went Wrong with Capitalism." (fasterplease.substack.com) Business PE firm Patricof & Co. is doubling down on its relationships with pro athletes.

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Life Insurance Strategies for Business Owners

Carson Wealth

Owning a business can be like parenting. You’ve likely experienced many sleepless nights and spent a countless amount of energy on your “baby.” Like parenting, being a business owner can be an enriching journey and make life worth the trip. To protect your business, you need the right mix of insurance. From the relationships that make your business run to the building it’s housed in, insurance can help prevent devastating financial losses or legal consequences.

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Thursday links: meaningful days

Abnormal Returns

Markets UK stocks look cheap. (ft.com) July has seen a big bounceback in small caps. (bilello.blog) Strategy How much do 20-year real stock market returns vary over time? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Don't hedge equities with equities. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Bill Ackman Bill Ackman doesn't want investors to think about Pershing Square USA as a close-end fun.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 143: Taking Over Clients From An Advisor With A Different Personality And Communication Style

Nerd's Eye View

About a decade or so ago, one of the most pressing issues facing the financial advice industry was the threat of an imminent deluge of advisor retirements coupled with a paucity of succession plans to transition clients to the next generation. While that scenario has yet to materialize as initially feared, the fact remains that transitions do occur on a regular basis, often as older advisors either sell their practices in one fell swoop or gradually offload part of their book while still staying

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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What’s the Worst Long-Term Return For U.S. Stocks?

A Wealth of Common Sense

My colleagues Dan LaRosa and Cameron Rufus joined me on the show this week to discuss questions about how to find the best auto insurance rates, owner-only defined benefit plans, finding clients as a financial advisor and how much of your portfolio should be in alternative investments. Further Reading: When is Mean Reversion Coming in the Stock Market The post What’s the Worst Long-Term Return For U.S.

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Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.8%, Above Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

The U.S. economy grew at a faster than expected pace during the second quarter of this year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in Q2 2024, according to the advance estimate. The latest estimate is above the forecasted 2.0% growth and is a pickup from the Q1 2023 GDP final estimate of 1.4%.

Economy 105
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The Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: $2B UBS Breakaways on Being Fiduciaries for the Long-Term

Wealth Management

The first breakaway team to join Beacon Pointe Advisors offers a perspective on change at the wirehouses, the value of being a true fiduciary and more.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 235,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending July 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000 , a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 243,000 to 245,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average.

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F.L.Putnam Adds 3 Firms Totaling $1.25B in Managed Assets

Wealth Management

The acquisition of the three East Coast-based firms will push F.L.Putnam’s assets under advisement above $10 billion, and its AUM will reach about $7.9 billion.

Assets 114
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.8% Annualized Rate in Q2

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2024 , according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment.

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Schwab Survey Finds Majority of 401(k) Participants Itching for Financial Advice

Wealth Management

The research survey also found that this audience said it was more likely to follow advice from a human than computer-generated recommendations.

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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 36.9% YoY

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 36.7% YoY, but still down 32.4% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 36.9% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.

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Building an Effective Pitchbook

Wealth Management

Your ability to communicate your mission, vision and values builds credibility, trust, and, most importantly, an identity in the increasingly crowded RIA space.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 20 July The U.S. hotel industry reported higher performance results than the previous week and positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 20 July. 14-20 July 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 73.5% (+1.0%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$165.91 (+2.4%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$122.02 (+3.4%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel

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Elevation Point Adds Two UBS Execs as Founding Partners

Wealth Management

Bradford Smithy and Robert Tamarkin are joining the venture launched by former Sanctuary Wealth CEO Jim Dickson, which aims to help smaller RIAs grow.

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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, June 2024. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.6% YoY. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for July).

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How Wealth Management M&A Is Affected by High Interest Rates

Wealth Management

Wealth management M&A remains fundamentally healthy, with dealmaking still happening at a healthy clip, both in terms of size and volume.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Watch Months-of-Supply!

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Months-of-Supply! A brief excerpt: Both inventory and sales are well below normal levels, and I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply to forecast price changes. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months - and that is unlikely this year - but we could see months-of-supply back to 2019 levels in the next month or two.

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Savvy Adds Six New Advisors, Pushing AUM Over $700M

Wealth Management

Brad Morgan joins from Mariner Wealth Advisors, which is suing him and the tech-focused RIA for poaching books of business.

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Are These ETFs Too Clever By Half?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Lots of ETF stuff today. First, starting last fall, I walked everyone through my test drive of the Defiance NASDAQ 100 Enhanced Options Income Fund (QQQY). It sells 0dte puts on the NASDAQ 100 and generates a huge "dividend." On a price basis, the fund can't keep up with the payout, not even close. It came out last fall at about $20/share and today it is just under $14.00.

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Q&A: Taking Stock of the ETF Market with Natixis’ Nick Elward

Wealth Management

U.S. ETFs are on pace for more than $700 billion in net flows in 2024, and net assets stand at more than $9 trillion.

Assets 110
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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Take the Next Step with Your Business, Attend the M&A Summit

NAIFA Advisor Today

One-third of financial advisors are predicted to retire in the next 10 years, creating an opportunity for advisors looking to grow or sell their practice. Join NAIFA member, David Wood, for the "M&A Summit: Opportunity of a Lifetime", offered in-person and virtually throughout the rest of 2024. Industry professionals come together for an in-depth exploration of mergers and acquisitions and learn how to harness the wave of retiring advisors to capitalize on this opportunity.

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High School Sports Powerhouse Taps Merrill Wealth Management to Help Kids Plot Financial Future

Wealth Management

Merrill will move some of its 641 sports and entertainment wealth advisers to IMG Academy’s campus to host parent and student teach-ins and simulations that show students what it is like to invest in a real financial market.

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Q2 Advance Estimate: GDP Per Capita versus GDP

Advisor Perspectives

The advance estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.84%, an acceleration from 1.41% for the Q1 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.37%, a pickup from 0.95% for the Q1 headline number.

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The Benefits of Substack as a Publishing Platform for Advisors

Wealth Management

Growing numbers of advisors are moving their newsletters to Substack.

Numbers 109
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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Continued to Fall in July

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index decreased in July to its lowest level since May 2020. The composite index came in at -13, down from -8 in June, while the future outlook inched down to 5.

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Political Identity Affects Wealth Inequality

Wealth Management

Do not allow partisanship to impact investment decisions.

Investing 109
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The Fed May Be Two Meetings Away From a Policy Mistake

Advisor Perspectives

The US inflation rate, which had surged to over 9% two years ago, is now around 3%. Based on current trends, it should settle at 2.5%-3%, a range that most economists would deem consistent with financial stability, including a firm anchoring of inflationary expectations.

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