Mon.Nov 27, 2023

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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

This weekend Jeff Sommer discussed a DFA research paper on market timing; both are well worth your time to read. The broad strokes are: Market timing is extremely difficult, very few people (if any) do it consistently well. Not only are the odds stacked against you, but very often systems that have successfully timed the market have been simply lucky, and do not succeed in out-of-sample tests.

Marketing 300
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Monday links: jobless recoveries

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Why market timing is so difficult. (ritholtz.com) Diversification is easy in theory, difficult in practice. (pictureperfectportfolios.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is now the biggest private delivery company in the U.S. (wsj.com) Amazon ($AMZN) no longer inspires fear in the health care space. (bloomberg.com) Finance Why you should expect more bank consolidation.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning reads: • How to Tweak Your Investments for a More Normal Market : Convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA; Higher interest rates means cash gets a respectable yield; Revisit concentrated positions; consider adding international stocks; buy longer-dated Treasuries. ( Barron’s ) • Economists May Have Been Flying Blind All Along : Declining response rates to official surveys raise the possibility that government and central bank officials have been making decisions bas

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Adviser links: safety and reliability

Abnormal Returns

Podcast Brendan Frazier talks with Shaun Erickson who is Chief Planning Officer at Single Point Partners. (wiredplanning.com) Ren Makino and Yanley Espinal talk philanthropy with Greg Ratliff, Vice President at Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors. (docs.google.com) The Smoke Show Why advisers need to keep up on changes in the technology space. (thereformedbroker.com) You can sign up for the Episode 2 of the Smoke Show featuring Flourish Cash here.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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How Financial Advicers Can Write, Publish, And Distribute Their Own Book To Create A More Effective Impression On Prospective Clients

Nerd's Eye View

One of the main goals of financial advisors who market themselves is to build a foundation of trust with their prospective clients so that they feel comfortable in discussing often-sensitive financial topics and ultimately acting on the advisor's recommendations. The challenge, though, is that advisors usually have only a short amount of time to build this trust, and while advisors can use different channels (e.g., their websites, newsletters, and social media) to demonstrate their expertise, th

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Fiscal Deficits Drive Higher Inflation

Advisor Perspectives

The growth of the federal deficit in the post-COVID era, coupled with the political unwillingness to increase taxes, foretells higher-than-historical inflation rates, according to new research.

Taxes 109
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New Home Sales decrease to 679,000 Annual Rate in October; Median New Home Price is Down 18% from the Peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales decrease to 679,000 Annual Rate in October Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 679 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. The next graph shows new home sales for 2022 and 2023 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Sales 107
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Weekly Market Insights – November 27, 2023

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

Weekly Market Insights: Short Week Strong For Stocks Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Investor enthusiasm for stocks remained strong last week, buoyed by declining bond yields in a holiday-abbreviated trading week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 1.27%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.00%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.89% for the week.

Marketing 105
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New Home Sales decrease to 679,000 Annual Rate in October

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 679 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Sales 102
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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What Advisors Need to Know About Elective Community Property

Wealth Management

Some non-community property states are allowing individuals and families to “opt-in,” providing significant income tax benefits.

Taxes 119
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A Pep Talk for Financial Advisors on Investing in a Declining Market

XY Planning Network

October ended with the S&P 500, Russell 3000, MSCI World Ex USA, MSCI Emerging Markets, and DJ Global Select REIT in the negative for 1-month and 3-month periods, so some clients will certainly be ready for us to answer the question, “What is it this time?” The beauty of our approach—building investment strategies based on academic research and rebalancing back to the target risk tolerance as markets move—is that we can find comfort in these times by revisiting the core tenets of our belief

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Market Commentary: Reasons To Be Thankful

Carson Wealth

We hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving holiday with family and friends. We wanted to take some time this week to go over a few reasons for investors to be thankful. Stocks rallied again last week and are now up four weeks in a row. The S&P 500 is up close to 20% on the year, one big reason to be thankful. The economy remains strong, the consumer is healthy, the wall of worry is intact, and manufacturing is bottoming.

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Emerging-Market ETFs Exceed $10B of Inflows This Year

Wealth Management

Net deposits into ETFs that invest across developing nations as well as those that target specific countries totaled $766.1 million in the week ended Nov. 24, building on gains of $1.57 billion in the previous week.

Marketing 107
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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A new twist on momentum strategies: Utilize overlapping momentum portfolios

Alpha Architect

Momentum investors utilize different timeframes to identify high momentum equities: past 6, 9, 12 months as an example. Obviously, there is a significant degree of overlap in momentum stocks identified across various past time frames. However, there has been little research focused on understanding the characteristics of momentum stocks formed on six and 12 months that overlap one another.

Portfolio 100
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Talk Your Book: Strategic Income

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by Nuveen: On today’s show, we spoke with Nick Travaglino, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Nuveen to discuss the fixed-income market in 2023. On today’s show, we discuss: Will rates be higher for longer or has consensus changed? An update on the Fed, and a discussion on the next rate hike or cut Mortgage rates and the probability of a housing slowdown.

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Cetera Closes on Avantax Acquisition

Wealth Management

The deal takes Avantax private, and the tax-focused firm will operate as a separate division within Cetera.

Taxes 116
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24 Fun And Inexpensive Girls Day Out Ideas

Clever Girl Finance

When you’re trying to save money, it can feel like you have to put your life on hold. But just because you’re tightening the purse strings doesn’t mean you have to cut into your social life. Actually, you can still enjoy girls day out ideas and have lots of fun, even when you’re on a tight budget. Table of contents 1. Volunteer together 2.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Court Case Threatens Compensation Model for RPAs, Providers

Wealth Management

The Bugielski case concerns whether the plan sponsor had a duty to consider the fee their record keeper received from a brokerage account and managed account provider.

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Is It Cheaper To Build Or Buy A House?

Clever Girl Finance

The idea of building a home might seem like a dream come true because you can fully customize the space. But buying a home already built also has its benefits, like being move-in ready right away. You may find yourself wavering between the two as you consider costs, so is it cheaper to build or buy a house? Table of contents Is it cheaper to build or buy a house?

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ESG and Passive Investing Do Not Mix

Wealth Management

The complex, long-term nature of sustainable investing makes it inherently an active management discipline.

Investing 119
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TSA: Airline Travel Above 2019 Levels

Calculated Risk

The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 26th. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA (Blue). The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is above the level for the same week in 2019 (104% of 2019). (red line) The 7-day average has been above 2019 Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is tracking above pre-pandemic levels.

Numbers 76
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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Billions Wiped Out as Stock-Safety Trade on Wall Street Misfires

Wealth Management

Rather than give shelter in a stormy season, the largest dividend ETFs have been left behind by a tech-obsessed market whose biggest proxies have surged 15% or more.

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The Missing Piece to Advisors’ End-Of-Year Planning Strategies

Advisor Perspectives

I'll share the impact healthcare costs have on financial plans, the critical healthcare information to include (such as medical tax deductions and IRMAA), how to budget for costs in a world of variables, and tangible strategies to implement during open enrollment and beyond to ensure clients are on the optimal coverage.

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Is a Hedge Fund More Than Its Founder?

Wealth Management

Star money managers are selling up or giving cash back to investors. Turning your hedge fund into a sustainable, growing business is a tall order.

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New Home Sales Fall More Than Expected in October

Advisor Perspectives

The October release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. New home sales were down 5.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 719,000 in September and up 17.7% from one year ago. The median home price is now at $409,300, down 3.0% from September after adjusting for inflation.

Sales 75
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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Fundamental Analysis Of Servotech Power Systems – Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis Of Servotech Power Systems: When it comes to investing, many investors tend to focus on well-known companies from the large-cap category. However, small-cap stocks have long been the hidden gems that, if properly selected can offer significant growth potential. One such stock in the small-cap category is Servotech Power Systems.

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Just Because You Can, Doesn't Mean You Should

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Portfolio replication is a tricky thing that frequently doesn't work. It can work like with the now closed Alpha Clone ETF. It replicated hedge funds based on stale 13-f data but it worked. The fund must not have gained enough AUM to last but it did work. We look at a lot of different ideas here, whether we are talking about replication or not, not to simply copy what someone else is doing but to see if some random strategy might have some piece of process or an idea to incorporate in a way that

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Annuities Are Back in Fashion, But Are They Safe?

Wealth Management

Rising interest rates have spurred a boom in demand, but investors should take note of recent changes in the insurance industry.