Wed.Dec 27, 2023

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Wednesday links: confounded economists

Abnormal Returns

Markets Every yield curve steepening is different. (integratinginvestor.com) What panic looks like in real-time. (investmenttalk.co) Strategy Forecast all you want, but unexpected stuff will happen in 2024. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Michael reviews his ten predictions from 2023 including Bitcoin prices. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Banks JP Morgan Chase ($JPM) is going earn nearly 20% of U.S. bank profits in 2023.

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AI-Generated Financial Advice And The Fiduciary Catch-22

Nerd's Eye View

Financial advisors have a fiduciary obligation to act in their clients' best interests, and at the same time are prohibited by state and SEC rules from making misleading statements or omissions about their advisory business. These responsibilities also extend to the use of any technology used in the process of giving advice: A recommendation made with the aid of technology still needs to be in the client's best interests, while the technology also needs to carry out any function as it's describe

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Personal finance links: maximizing returns

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Jeff Hirsch about stock market seasonality. (ritholtz.com) Morgan Housel on why we are better spotting other people's flaws than our own. (open.spotify.com) Real estate Trying to time the housing market is folly. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The rent vs. buy decision depends, in part, on time horizon. (home-economics.us) Apartment companies are changing how they build with long term renters in mind.

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At The Money: The Best Way to Sell Your House

The Big Picture

 The Best Way to Sell Your House with Jonathan Miller, Miller Samuel, December 27, 2023 Is it a seller’s market? That seems to be the consensus, but there are still tips and tricks to getting the biggest return for your home. On today’s episode, we discuss what to do, and NOT do, when selling a house. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Jonathan Miller is founder and President of Miller Samuel.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Fannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in November: Single Family Mostly Unchanged, Multi-Family Increased

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in November: Single Family Mostly Unchanged, Multi-Family Increased Brief excerpt: Single-family serious delinquencies were mostly unchanged in November, however, multi-family serious delinquencies increased. Freddie Mac reports that multi-family delinquencies increased to 0.28% in November, up from 0.15% in November 2022.

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Animal Spirits: What Will Perform Best in 2024?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts: See here for our YCharts year-end strategy session recap. On today’s show, we discuss: A second mountain in inflation? Cuban: Tech bubble worse now than 15 years ago Vanguard is closer than ever to ending BlackRocks ETF reign Housing market update: Declining mortgage rates lure sellers off sidelines, paving way for 2024 buyers Free land in the US: 16 sma.

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Year-End Planning: Do Something Today That Your Future Self Will Thank You For

Carson Wealth

By Ryan Egolf, EA, Senior Tax Planner As the New Year quickly approaches, it’s time to put a bow on your 2023 financial plan. Like many Americans, we tend to procrastinate until the last second. However, there are plenty of things you can and should consider. While this is by no means an exhaustive or comprehensive list of financial planning tools, these three broad areas will get you headed in the right direction.

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 210 thousand, up from 205 thousand last week. • At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in the index.

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It Was a Tough Year for Almost Every Bank Not Named JPMorgan

Advisor Perspectives

After a year marred by the biggest US bank failures since the 2008 financial crisis, the nation’s largest lender is on familiar footing — scooping up a weakened rival, reeling in its clients and minting record profits along the way.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 6.7% below recent peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 6.7% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the October Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 70% above the bubble peak in 2006.

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Empowering Wealth Managers: The Hidden Value in Asset Management Programs

Wealth Management

Unlock the secrets behind successful financial advising.

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Advisor Today’s 5 Most Popular Posts from 2023

NAIFA Advisor Today

As we wrap up 2023 its the perfect time to revisit the top posts from Advisor Today in 2023 that captured the attention and engaged our readers the most. The Advisor Today Blog brings you the tools, ideas and techniques you need to build and enhance your financial practice. It is the go-to place for insurance and financial advisors who are looking for the latest news and trends that are shaping the insurance and financial-advising industry.

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Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Drops Below $43K

Advisor Perspectives

Bitcoin's price slipped below $43,000 yesterday after spending the previous 6 days above it. BTC is now up ~156% year to date. Here's the latest charts on three of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share through 12/26.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Our 2024 Market Forecast | And Why You Shouldn’t Listen to It

Validea

Forecast season is once again upon is. It is the time of year where many market strategists will tell us where the S&P 500 will end 2024 and do it with conviction. There is just one problem. Almost all of them will be wrong. But despite the fact that the evidence that forecasting the market is a losing game, many of us who follow markets still think we can do it.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Slowed in December

Advisor Perspectives

Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell to -11 this month from -5 in November, marking its 2nd consecutive negative reading. This month's reading was worse than the forecasted reading of -7.

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Episode #514: Liz Simmie, Honeytree – A Quantamental Approach to ESG

Meb Faber Research

Guest: Liz Simmie is the co-founder of Honeytree Investment Management, an asset management firm based in Toronto, Canada. Recorded: 12/13/2023 | Run-Time: 52:11 Summary: In today’s episode, Liz dives into the strategy of BEEZ, which focuses on responsibly growing companies that are stakeholder governed, purpose driven, and make a net positive impact on the world. […] The post Episode #514: Liz Simmie, Honeytree – A Quantamental Approach to ESG appeared first on Meb Faber Research

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David Tice: “The Market is Going Down”

Advisor Perspectives

With the S&P 500 hitting the lowest levels since last June, I thought it would be great to talk to Ranger Alternative about how advisors should be incorporating a hedge in clients' portfolios regardless of the market environment. Ranger Alternative is sub-advisor to AdvisorShares' Ranger Equity Bear ETF (HDGE). The brains behind HDGE is my guest, David Tice (senior advisor), as well as John Del Vecchio (co-portfolio manager) and Brad Lamensdorf (co-portfolio manager).

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Honoring a Legacy: Sidney Kess and the Evolution of Financial Planning

Advisor Perspectives

When financial planning pioneer Sidney Kess passed away last September at the age of 97, he was long-established as an active thought leader, contributing to the field for over 70 years.

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Gasoline Prices Rise for First Time Since September

Advisor Perspectives

Gas prices increased for the first time since September, ending a 13-week streak of declines. As of December 25, the price of regular and premium gas each rose 6 cents from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $75.57, up 3.8% from last week.

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Magnificent Seven Loses Importance as Soft Landing Means Risk On

Advisor Perspectives

The soft-landing scenario that investors see for next year points to further gains in US stocks. But it also dims the prospect of another stretch of wild outperformance for the technology giants that dominated in 2023.

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Three Myths About Investing for Retirement

Advisor Perspectives

Whatever you’ve been told about your retirement, odds are that it’s wrong. Saving enough for your retirement, and investing the right way, are truly among the hardest of all financial problems. In many ways, it’s more difficult than running a large endowment or hedge fund — and yet we all must do it.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Avoiding Fear-based Decision Making

Advisor Perspectives

Educating clients, reaffirming their financial goals and addressing other key issues are vital tools for maintaining a steady course during volatile times.

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There Is More Value In The Financial Sector Than Any Other Sector

Advisor Perspectives

Thanks to the great recession of 2008 and 2009, there is more value to be found in the financial sector than any other of the 11 sectors.

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My Top 50 Books of 2023

Advisor Perspectives

It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. Here is my list of winners and losers.

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Crypto Hedge Funds Gear Up for ‘Token Mania’ After 2023 Rebound

Advisor Perspectives

Crypto hedge funds that survived a bruising 2022 are recovering, and many are thriving. Some are even expecting a banner 2024.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Wall Street Quants Warm Up to Zero-Day Options Amid Trading Boom

Advisor Perspectives

This year’s hottest options trade is catching on with Wall Street’s nerd contingent.

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Turning Bond Fund Income into a Long-Term Capital Gain

Advisor Perspectives

If you own bond funds in a taxable account, it is possible to turn some of the SEC yield into long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, which could save a bundle. Here’s how.

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A Mild Recession and S&P 4,500

Advisor Perspectives

Very early this year our economics team got a pleasant surprise: Consensus Economics, which collects forecasts from roughly 200 economists around the world, rated us the most accurate forecasters of the United States for 2022, based on our forecasts for GDP and CPI. Unfortunately, we don’t expect a repeat award for 2023.