Fri.Feb 02, 2024

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Friday links: the enormous role of luck

Abnormal Returns

Markets Josh Brown, "Just please, no matter what you do, don’t say the G word. Never say it." (downtownjoshbrown.com) Just a reminder, markets are hard. (ft.com) Finance The job market is hot for private credit professionals. (institutionalinvestor.com) Expect more office building loan writedowns. (finance.yahoo.com) Ukraine Supporting Ukraine is a no-brainer.

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Choosing A Financial Advisor? – Ask These 6 Questions

The Chicago Financial Planner

With the start of a new year, many people resolve to get their finances in order. A part of this process might include hiring a financial advisor or hiring a new financial advisor if you have decided to move on from your current advisor. Hiring the right advisor for your needs is critical. Here are six questions to ask when choosing a financial advisor: How do you get paid?

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (February 3-4)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a Morningstar survey has found that financial advisory clients are more likely to stick with their advisor for emotional reasons rather than investment returns alone. Which suggests that building trusting relationships with their clients and giving them added confidence in their financial decision-making (rather than focusing on ways to juice investment returns) could be t

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MiB: Tom Hancock, GMO Focused Equity

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Tom Hancock, a partner at GMO LLC, where he is also head of the Focused Equity team. He manages the focused quality fund and its new Quality ETF, and is the portfolio manager for quality strategies. He previously served as co-head of the firm’s global equity team. Before joining GMO, he was a research scientist at Siemens and a software engineer at IBM.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Where is Housing Still Affordable?

A Wealth of Common Sense

One of the reasons the current housing market is so frustrating for homebuyers is how quickly things have changed. For years, housing prices were reasonable (in most places) while mortgage rates were low. Housing was affordable for most buyers. It’s not anymore. I updated the growth of housing prices and disposable income going back to 1975: The growth in prices was far below the growth in disposable income for muc.

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More Trending

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January Employment Report: 353 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry.

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The 2024 IPO Market: Trends and Predictions

Wealth Management

What can a securities attorney's inbox tell us about the year ahead?

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Feb 2nd COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Increased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have more than quadrupled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are now declining.

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Which Alternative Investments RIAs Favor Right Now

Wealth Management

We spoke to advisors at multiple RIA firms to find which alternative investment sectors they are gravitating toward

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Soars in January

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment soared in January to its highest level since July 2021, according to the final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index came in at 79.0, up 9.3 (13.3%) from the December final. The latest reading was above the forecast of 78.8.

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RIA Roundup: OneDigital Picks Up $1.3B Firm

Wealth Management

Featured in this week’s deal roundup: OneDigital’s RIA, Carson Wealth, SteelPeak Advisors and affiliates of both Kestra PWS and Focus Financial.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: January Employment

Advisor Perspectives

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. January saw a 353,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls and the unemployment remained at 3.7%.

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Spot Bitcoin ETF Race: Global X is Out, Schwab May Be In

Wealth Management

Nearly a month after 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs made their market debuts, ETF issuer Global X scrapped its plans to join the fray.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Buffett Valuation Indicator: January 2024

Advisor Perspectives

With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 165.8%, down from 167.3% the previous quarter.

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Sources: 'Frustration' Pushes Liz Nesvold to Leave Cresset

Wealth Management

After becoming Cresset's first president in May, Nesvold is leaving the rapidly growing RIA on Feb. 11.

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How To Save For Retirement In Your 20s

Clever Girl Finance

Starting early with investing for retirement is so important to secure your future self. This means that saving for retirement should be a component of your overall financial portfolio and wealth-building strategy. By starting early on, you put yourself in a position to build a substantial nest egg that the future you will be grateful for. So, let’s discuss how to save for retirement in your 20s!

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Cetera CEO on AI: 'We’re Getting WedMD’d,' So Get Ready

Wealth Management

Mike Durbin says innovations in generative artificial intelligence are progressing at the same rate among consumers and institutions, while Sanctuary Wealth CEO Adam Malamed is worried about granting it decision-making powers.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Comments on January Employment Report

Calculated Risk

This was a very strong report; however, the benchmark revision showed job growth was slower over the last year than originally reported. Including revisions: The 3.06 million jobs added in 2023 was the 17th best year for job growth in US history (out of 84 years) following the two best years on record (2021 and 2022). The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined.

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S&P: Osaic’s Lincoln Acquisition Won’t Damage Debt Ratio

Wealth Management

S&P estimates Osaic will pay $1.04 billion, including transaction costs and retention loans, to Lincoln advisors.

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Rock Pile Riches

Fortune Financial

“What makes a rock pit valuable is that nobody else can compete with it. The nearest rival owner from two towns over isn’t going to haul his rock into your territory because the trucking bills would eat up all his profit. No matter how good the rocks are in Chicago, no Chicago rock-pit owner can ever invade your territory in Brooklyn or Detroit.

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Episode #519: Ben Mackovak on The Secret Sauce of Investing in Banks

Meb Faber Research

Guest: Ben Mackovak is the Co-Founder of Strategic Value Bank Partners, an investment partnership specializing in community banks. Ben also sits on the board for several banks. Recorded: 1/10/2024 | Run-Time: 1:03:42 Summary: It’s been a wild ride lately for the banks. 2023 was the biggest year ever for bank failures. There are concerns about commercial […] The post Episode #519: Ben Mackovak on The Secret Sauce of Investing in Banks appeared first on Meb Faber Research - St

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through December 2023, except CoreLogic is through November and Apartment List is through January 2024. The CoreLogic measure is up 2.7% YoY in November, up from 2.5% in October, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

Advisor Perspectives

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of January 19th, the index was at 17.536, down 1.604 from the previous week, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

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Microtech Developers’ Future Strategies: From Debt Reduction to Market Expansion

Trade Brains

Global investors have increased their equity exposure in the real estate sector due to increased confidence in India driven by certain government initiatives, reform-led improved transparency, and accountability in the real estate sector. Even though the global economy faced headwinds, India remained resilient. This is evident, as there was an infusion of $5.8 billion from institutional investors in the property sector.

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NAIFA and Stonewood Financial Announce Partnership to Expand Awareness of Legislative Risk in Client Portfolios to Better Protect More Americans

NAIFA Advisor Today

NAIFA and Stonewood Financial have completed a partnership agreement whereby Stonewood Financial will become part of NAIFA’s Business Performance Center that provides education and legislative debriefs to members on issues concerning practice management. Additionally, the two organizations will have a presence at organizational meetings and conferences, including NAIFA’s May Congressional Conference in Washington, D.C., and its September Apex educational event in Phoenix, Arizona, and Stonewood’

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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High FII Holding Stocks Under Rs 1000 Add To Your Watchlist 2024

Trade Brains

High FII Holdings under Rs 1000 :The management of a company is critical to its growth. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) invest in companies based on their analysis and for short-term gains from the movement of stocks as well. High FII holdings imply greater trust in companies. This article will look at companies with a high FII holding of less than Rs. 1000.

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Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields

Advisor Perspectives

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of January 31, it was 3.99%.

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Early GDP Tracking: Solid Start for Q1

Calculated Risk

From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on net at +2.8% (qoq ar) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate also unchanged at +3.2%. [Feb 2nd estimate] emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26.

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