Wed.Oct 18, 2023

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What You Need to Earn to Own a Home

The Big Picture

click for ginormous chart While I am wrapped up working on a few projects today, I wanted to share this map/chart/table showing US real estate prices relative to income. A lot of factors drive home prices — available supply, mortgage rates, inflation, salary/income growth, demand, etc. Its not as simple as many make it out to be. It has also become obvious that the big shortage of single-family homes housing prices has kept prices elevated (although there are some signs that some aspiratio

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Wednesday links: short-term variability

Abnormal Returns

Markets Narratives drive stocks and the GLP-1 narrative is strong these days. (herbgreenberg.substack.com) Just how expensive are the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks? (blog.validea.com) Why international equities may belong in your taxable account. (corporate.vanguard.com) There is no single model for the term premium. (wsj.com) Finance What makes for a good annual shareholder letter?

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Avoid Getting Caught Up In Big Market Delusions: The Case Study Of Electric Vehicles

Nerd's Eye View

A key value proposition for financial advisors is helping clients avoid common behavioral biases that can lead to suboptimal investment decisions. Even people who are normally rational decision-makers can be prone to fear, greed, and overconfidence, and the persistence of market bubbles where investors chase whatever company or sector is all the rage at the time (and often get stuck with losses when the bubble pops) shows that herd mentality in investing is as prevalent as ever.

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Personal finance links: slowing down

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff on what constitutes 'evidence-based investing.' (peterlazaroff.com) Bogumil Baranowski talks with Brian Feroldi, author of "Why the Stock Market Goes Up." (talkingbillions.co) Frazer Rice talks with Jared Dillian about his forthcoming book "No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Life." (open.spotify.com) Peter Dunn on understanding your relationship with money.

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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30-Year Mortgage Rates Hit 8.0%; California Home Sales Down 21.5% YoY in September

Calculated Risk

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: 30-Year Mortgage Rates Hit 8.0% Excerpt: Mortgage News Daily reports 30-year fixed rate mortgages rose to 8.0% today (for top tier scenarios). This will mostly impact closed sales in November and December, and strongly suggests we will see new cycle lows for existing home sales over the winter. Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release September existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, October 19th, at 10:00 AM ET

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Dimensional’s New ETFs Signal Trouble for Advisors

Advisor Perspectives

Dimensional’s new ETFs are good news for investors but raise issues for advisors.

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More Trending

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Not Quite a No-Brainer

The Irrelevant Investor

There is no such thing as a no-brainer when it comes to predicting the future. I was reminded of this painful lesson over the weekend when the kicker of the 49ers missed a 40-yard field goal and busted several of my bets. The 49ers are arguably the best team in the league. While their opponent the Cleveland Browns have an incredible defense, they were without their starting quarterback.

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Advisors, Asset Managers Bank on Alternative Investment Growth at CAIS Summit

Wealth Management

Asset managers are increasingly rolling out products aimed at the wealth channel, but will advisors bite?

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Building Permits Fall 4.4% in September

Advisor Perspectives

New residential building permits experienced their largest monthly decline since November 2022 according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In September, building permits reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.473 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.445 million. This marks a 4.4% decrease from August and a 7.2% decline compared to one year ago.

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Pioneering Succession Planning and Championing Financial Aid for Educators

Wealth Management

Landon Warmund, who is only in his fifth year in the finance industry, is already giving serious thought to succession planning.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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September Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction

Calculated Risk

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: September Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red). Total starts were down 7.2% in September compared to September 2022. And starts year-to-date are down 12.1% compared to last year.

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From Corporate Finance to Passionate Financial Planner

Wealth Management

Cooke Capital's Haley Tolistsky shares her unique journey into the financial advisor profession.

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Vijay Kedia Success Story – From a Stock Broker to Ace Investor!

Trade Brains

Vijay Kedia Success Story : Vijay Kedia is one of the most successful stock investors of the present time. His stock market journey is inspiring for many old and new investors. Today, let’s re-visit his journey to learn how Vijay Kedia became one of the most triumphant stock investors of India. “One must understand that stock market is a “high risk- high gain” business.

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The Top 5 Questions to Ask Before Going Independent

Wealth Management

It’s crucial to ask the right questions to ensure the transition goes as smoothly as possible.

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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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The Definition of Work-Optional Lifestyle

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

The mass media in the United States tends to oversimplify the transition from the career phase to the retirement phase of our lives. Apparently walking into the sunset on a beach or through a meadow leads directly to a rocking chair on a front porch and that is retirement? As many of us know, this couldn’t be further from the truth. The new challenges that we face in the first few weeks, months and years of this new period of our lives can be daunting.

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September’s Blockbuster Month of ETF Launches: Part 2

Wealth Management

Nearly 70 new ETFs made their market debuts in September. That included 21 bond ETFs, one commodities ETF, 41 equities-based ETFs and six target date/multi-asset ETFs.

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Housing Starts Increased to 1.358 million Annual Rate in September

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,358,000. This is 7.0 percent above the revised August estimate of 1,269,000, but is 7.2 percent below the September 2022 rate of 1,463,000. Single‐family housing starts in September were at a rate of 963,000; this is 3.2 percent above the revised August figure of 933,000.

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Passing Down a Home in a QPRT

Wealth Management

Higher tax rates actually may help your client pass down their home via a QPRT.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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How To Talk to Your Clients About Values and Faith-Based Investing

Advisor Perspectives

There is a growing movement among investors to align their portfolio to their values or belief systems. Advisors can use Direct Indexing products and Separately Managed Accounts to help their clients pursue faith- or values-based investing.

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401(k) Real Talk Episode 81: October 18, 2023

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussions about the latest news in the RPA industry.

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The Fed Still Has a Lot of Quantitative Tightening to Do

Advisor Perspectives

The US Federal Reserve’s efforts to quell inflation have sent long-term interest rates to their highest level in a generation, putting a lot of stress on banks, companies and anyone looking to finance a new home.

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Concurrent Adds Schwab as Second Custodian

Wealth Management

A year after announcing it would leave Raymond James and restructure from an OSJ to a hybrid, multi-custodial RIA, Concurrent says it recruited more than $1 billion in assets and added Schwab as a custodian.

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Crafting Impact: Revenue Growth And Efficiency For Finance Professionals

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

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AIA: Architecture Billings "New Decline in Business Condition"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 14th Consecutive Month

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Reports New Decline in Business Condition Business conditions at architecture firms declined again in September, the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reports. The score of 44.8 for September is the lowest score reported since December 2020 during the height of the pandemic.

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From Introverted Beginnings to a Promising Future in Financial Planning

Wealth Management

Kevin Clark was apprehensive about entering the financial planning industry, particularly because of his introverted nature.

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Noise is Hiding a Tremendous Bond Market Opportunity

Advisor Perspectives

This article discusses one of my favorite bond fair-value models to show you the true bond-yield signal.

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Focused on the Future: Maurice Miller on Rethinking New Financial Advisor Compensation

Wealth Management

Maurice Miller talks about why it's important to re-evaluate how new advisors are compensated.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 13, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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Blake Pinyan on Personal Drive, Technology and the Future of Financial Planning

Wealth Management

Blake Pinyan, CFP and FPA National NextGen Co-Chair, shares his journey in the financial planning industry.

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales, Fed Chair Powell

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, up from 209 thousand last week. • Aslo at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of -6.8, up from -13.5. • At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

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Monetizing Nasdaq 100 Volatility For Income And Risk Management

Wealth Management

Wednesday, November 15, 2023 | 2:00 PM ET

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.