Fri.Dec 22, 2023

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Friday links: doing hard things

Abnormal Returns

Markets Just how bad was the 2022-23 bond drawdown? This bad. (ft.com) Why you should look at returns from 2022-23 as a whole. (priceactionlab.com) Streaming Lionsgate ($LGF.A) is splitting Starz from its studio business. (axios.com) What would a Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD) and Paramount ($PARA) merger mean for consumers? (theverge.com) Seven lessons learned from Netflix's ($NFLX) viewership data, including the staying power of 'Gilmore Girls.

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PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 6.7% YoY in November

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2023. CPI Shelter was up 6.5% year-over-year in November, down from 6.7% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 6.7% YoY in November , down from 6.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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Momentum Everywhere, Including Equity Options

Alpha Architect

Option returns display momentum, meaning that firms whose options performed well in the previous 6 to 36 months are likely to see high option returns in the next month as well. Momentum Everywhere, Including Equity Options was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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The Stock Market is Our Mona Lisa

A Wealth of Common Sense

There are Twitter accounts that spend their time lamenting why we don’t build cathedrals, castles and architecture like they did in the past. I get it. I’ve been to Europe before. The castles, the churches, the opera houses, the landmarks, the art, etc. It’s mind-boggling people were able to build these things without the technology we have available today.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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New Home Sales decrease to 590,000 Annual Rate in November; Average New Home Price is Down 14% from the Peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales decrease to 590,000 Annual Rate in November Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 590 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. The next graph shows new home sales for 2022 and 2023 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

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AIA: "Architecture firm billings continue to decline in November"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 16th Consecutive Month

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI November 2023: Business conditions remain soft at architecture firms Business conditions remained soft at architecture firms in November, as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) remained below 50 with a score of 45.3 for the month (any score below 50 indicates declining billings).

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IBDs Will Continue to Get Closer to the Advisor in 2024

Wealth Management

The independent broker/dealers that tighten connections with their advisors and demonstrate flexibility in their affiliation models will be competitive in the year ahead.

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New Home Sales decrease to 590,000 Annual Rate in November

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 590 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

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Alternatives Options Will Get More Complex in 2024

Wealth Management

As alternative investment options move beyond interval funds and ETFs in the coming year, advisors will need to grapple with whether to use them.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Personal Income increased 0.4% in November; Spending increased 0.2%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $81.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in November , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $71.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $46.7 billion (0.2 percent).

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Industry Awaits Final Versions of Regulations in 2024

Wealth Management

Industry experts cited the DOL’s fiduciary rule, further guidance on the SEC’s marketing rule and potential movement on unpaid FINRA arbitration awards as possible developments in 2024.

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Dec 22nd COVID Update: Hospitalizations Increased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have almost quadrupled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

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In 2024, AI To Bring Small Improvements—and Bigger Threats

Wealth Management

What does the history of John Deere, a 185-year-old agricultural company, have to tell us about the state of AI in advisor technology?

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Is The 75/50 Portfolio Now Attainable?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

There's a lot of neat things about 19+ years of blogging, I started in Sept 2004, including circling back around to ideas that we started talking about a longggggg time ago. The first version of Random Roger is essentially gone due to a mishap migrating that content over to AdvisorShares when I had that side gig but many of those blog posts are still up at Seeking Alpha.

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2024: The Year of the Creative RIA Deal

Wealth Management

Advisor Growth Strategies expects new players to enter the RIA M&A market in 2024, as valuations diverge and deals become larger and more creative.

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High DII Holding Stocks Under Rs 50 To Add To Your Watchlist

Trade Brains

High DII Holding Stocks Under Rs 50 : Ever wonder why we flock to stocks that are more affordable to our pockets and try to invest in the hope of a fortune? The companies we search for and invest in expect to be multi-baggers in the future. In this article, we will look at some of the companies with High DII holding Stocks under Rs 50. High DII Holdings represents domestic investors who invest in equities in their home country.

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Saratoga Investment Solutions: The Never-Ending Journey Toward Full Integration

Wealth Management

Cynthia Zalewsky, president of $45 million in AUM Saratoga Investment Solutions, has sought deeply integrated applications for years—her search goes on.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: I’ve added a comparison of active listings, new listings, and closings to the same month in 2019 (for markets with available data). This gives us a sense of the current low level of sales and inventory, and also shows some significant regional differences.

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Big Banks Are Copying From Private Credit’s Playbook

Wealth Management

Wall Street has lost out on billions in fees as direct lenders lured away corporate borrowers. The future of their leveraged lending businesses depends on how they adapt.

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How to Evaluate the Financial Health of a Creative Professional’s Business

Steve Feinberg

The financial health of any business is a crucial aspect that determines its success. Creative professionals are no exception to this rule, and it is essential to keep tabs on your business’s financial health. Whether you are a photographer, graphic designer, or writer, understanding the financial landscape of your business can help you overcome the challenges that come with running a creative enterprise.

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US Stocks Go High When Strategists Go Low

Wealth Management

Forecasters don’t see much upside for the S&P 500 in 2024, but some of its best returns have come in years when soothsayers least expected them.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Cothron, Mayeux, and Boyle to Present the Q1 State of NAIFA

NAIFA Advisor Today

NAIFA members, set a reminder! The Q1 State of NAIFA 2024 webinar is happening on January 25th at 12 pm Eastern. Don't miss this first update of the year, as it's a key part of our commitment to keeping you well-informed about our developments and future goals.

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The Top ETFs of 2023

Wealth Management

The top performing ETF from each sector in the past year.

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Navigating the Broker/Dealer vs. Investment Advisor Landscape

Tobias Financial

In the ever-evolving world of finance, understanding the intricate differences between broker/dealers (BDs) and independent Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) is paramount for consumers seeking trusted financial guidance. Recognizing the need for clarity, The Institute for the Fiduciary Standard recently unveiled its latest Fiduciary Campaign. This campaign aims to bridge the gap in consumer knowledge by shedding light on the often-overlooked legal and business distinctions between BDs and in

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Overlooked Fiduciary Risks for Retirement Plan Sponsors

Wealth Management

Potential failures range from cyber theft to fee inflation to document mismanagement.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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2023 Markets and Economy, and New Year Outlook

Your Richest Life

As 2023 comes to a close, we can take a look at how the markets and economy performed, where we stand now, and what might be on the horizon for 2024. So first, here are some of the top takeaways and biggest headlines from this year: 2023 Markets and Economy: Inflation, Debt and the Labor Market In 2023, the inflation rate continued to cool in response to high interest rates.

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Don’t fall for the BS – use these RAW and REAL tips to find a financial advisor!

Sara Grillo

There’s a ton of bogus crap advice out there that people doll out when they are trying to convince you to hire them as a financial advisor. Don’t fall for the BS. Use these tips to find a good financial advisor and avoid the lying grifters! But before we get to the podcast… Look, there are alot of schmucks out there hawking crap products disguised as financial advice.

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Facts Vs Feelings Take 5 – The Fed Pivoted, and Stocks Like It

Carson Wealth

The Fed halted rate hikes last week – and even penciled in a few cuts in 2024. As a result, the stock market surged. Get the details from Carson Group’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese. Highlights include: The current policy rate is 5.4%; predicted rate at the end of 2024 is 4.6% Stocks are up 20% from two years ago A lot of stocks have hit monthly highs over the last few weeks We’re ending with strong momentum and signs of good things