Wed.Jan 31, 2024

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At the Money: Forecasting Recessions

The Big Picture

At the Money: Forecasting Recessions with Claudia Sahm (January 31, 2024 ) Investors don’t like recessions. But how can they tell if one’s coming? There’s an indicator for that. It’s called the “Sahm Rule,” named for economist Claudia Sahm. In this episode, we discuss how to use labor data to forecast recessions.

Economy 298
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Personal finance links: a recipe for unhappiness

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Meb Faber talks with Jared Dillian author of "No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life." (mebfaber.com) Dan Haylett talks with Sonya Lutter about addressing 'your money scripts' in retirement. (humansvsretirement.com) Rick Ferri talks real estate investing with Dr. Jim Dahle and John Worth. (bogleheads.podbean.com) Homes Why people prefer owning over renting.

Insurance 265
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Using A Testamentary Charitable Remainder Unitrust (T-CRUT) To Give Twice To Both Loved Ones And Charitable Organizations

Nerd's Eye View

In late 2019, Congress passed the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, introducing several significant changes to retirement planning. Of the many provisions in the bill, the so-called "Death of the Stretch" arguably received the lion's share of consternation from the financial advisor community. Under the new law, non-spouse beneficiaries (with few exceptions) must now withdraw the entirety of an inherited IRA within 10 years of the account owner's passing rather

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Wednesday links: nothing to do with money

Abnormal Returns

Inflation Why investors are pulling money from TIPS ETFs. (ft.com) Is there an ideal level of inflation? (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Crypto Bankrupt FTX says it will pay out customers in whole. (coindesk.com) Are spot Bitcoin ETFs going to start showing up in 401(k) plans? (investmentnews.com) Companies Boeing's ($BA) decline has been decades in the making.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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The Word on WealthTech for February 2024

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy co-founder and CEO Doug Fritz provides his take on the most important wealth management technology news of the last month.

More Trending

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Animal Spirits: Gen Z is on Fire

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Kraneshares: See here for Kraneshare’s latest 2024 outlooks on China, the carbon market, and managed futures. See here to register for the Future Proof Retreat in March! On today’s show, we discuss: Plummeting inflation raises new risk for Fed: Rising real interest rates GDP, fourth quarter and year 2023 Young people have a lot more wealth than we thought .

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Mariner Wealth Comes Under Fire In Courts

Wealth Management

Over a matter of weeks, Mariner was hit with multiple lawsuits from rival advisory firms, including Edelman Financial Engines, Avantax and RWA Wealth Partners, claiming the firm's hyper-aggressive growth tactics step over the line. It may just be the new cost of doing business in a rapidly maturing RIA industry, some legal observers say.

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Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January Up 1.6%

Advisor Perspectives

Valid until the market close on February 28, 2024 The S&P 500 closed January with a monthly gain of 1.59%, after a gain of 4.42% in December. After close on the last day of the month, one of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — is signaling "cash", unchanged from last month's final single "cash" signal.

Portfolio 115
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Founders Arena Will Be Back For Second Season Of Its WealthTech Accelerator

Wealth Management

One of the half-dozen participants in last year’s inaugural round, Sora Financial, was honored last week with the T3 Emerging Technology Award.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Chicago PMI Falls in January

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 46.0 in January from 47.2 in December. The latest reading is worse than the 48.0 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a second straight month.

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401(k) Real Talk Episode 91: January 31, 2024

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussion on Fidelity's deal with insurers, the DOL fiduciary rule, academics' criticism of the DC system, Franklin Templeton's integration of Putnam and more.

Insurance 115
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FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy

Calculated Risk

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here , starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

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Kestra’s Bluespring Buys $500M Virginia RIA

Wealth Management

Hughes Financial Services is one of three firms to join Bluespring last year.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 6.6% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 6.6% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 6.6% in December , from up 6.1% YoY in November. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023.

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How Life insurance Agents Can Protect Themselves While Protecting Others

Wealth Management

Those who are product agnostic will prevail in the uncertain times ahead.

Insurance 115
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ADP: Private Employment Increased 107,000 in January

Calculated Risk

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 107,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 5.2% Private sector employment increased by 107,000 jobs in January and annual pay was up 5.2 percent year-over-year, according to the January ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).

Economy 69
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Adding a Tax Reimbursement Clause with Beneficiaries’ Consent

Wealth Management

The Internal Revenue Service issues new guidance on whether it’s a taxable gift.

Taxes 114
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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, down from 214 thousand last week. • At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending. • Also at 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for January.

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Bitcoin Futures Demand Cools as Spot ETF Era Concludes Key Arb Trade

Wealth Management

The 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading on Jan. 11.

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Fundamental Analysis of REC – Financials, Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis of REC : The Government of India is pursuing the target of achieving 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, which is expected to drive significant investment in the sector. In this article, we will be analyzing one such company that is involved in financing this sector particularly. Fundamental Analysis of REC Company Overview Established in 1969, to energize agricultural pump-sets for irrigation purposes to reduce the dependency of agriculture on monsoons, REC Limited

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Note Valuations to the Fore in 2024?

Wealth Management

Shift in interest rates provides impetus to discounting promissory notes.

Valuation 111
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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Money Market “Cash On The Sidelines” – A Myth That Won’t Die

Advisor Perspectives

As money market account balances soar, the mainstream media again proclaims, “There is $6 trillion of cash on the sidelines just waiting to come into the market.

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Fearless Public Speaking

Wealth Management

Your words, your delivery and being a hard act to follow.

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Learning from Turning Points in Monetary Policy

Advisor Perspectives

History shows that monetary policy drives investment performance. When the Federal Reserve (Fed) hikes or cuts the fed funds target rate in response to economic conditions—or stays on hold while it assesses the data—performance will differ by sector.

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For Muni Investors, It's Been a Dry January

Wealth Management

In November, municipal bonds gained 6.35%, their best single month since August 1982. In January, munis posted a loss of 1.05%.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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The World Is Transitioning to American Oil From Saudi Crude

Advisor Perspectives

Picture the scene: Weeks after the world came together at the COP28 summit with a deal for “transitioning away from fossil fuels,” Saudi Arabia, the oil industry’s flagship producer, cancels a planned increase in its crude output capabilities. On paper, it’s the stuff climate activists dream about.

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Pimco, DoubleLine, BlackRock Embrace Bond-Market Swings

Wealth Management

Frequent market gyrations are A-OK with bit asset managers.

Marketing 102
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Bharat Dynamics Limited: A Glimpse into India’s Defence Tech Powerhouse

Trade Brains

Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) is a key force in the Indian military sector, dedicated to national security. It has grown into a leading defence technology corporation specializing in designing, developing, and manufacturing complex missile systems and strategic defence solutions. While the company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit during FY23, a contrasting narrative emerges when considering its recent substantial orders, upcoming strategies, and an impressive stock return of 556.