Thu.Sep 26, 2024

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Thursday links: news cynicism

Abnormal Returns

Markets U.S. earnings estimates, and margins, continue to tick higher in 2024. (carsongroup.com) Covid was boon for U.S. corporate profitability. (sherwood.news) Strategy How would you do if had tomorrow's newspaper today? (ft.com) Investing is simple but not easy. (thefinancialbodyguard.com) Finance Not every sovereign wealth fund is created alike.

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Advisor Sentiment Index: Confidence in the Economy Falls

Wealth Management

Financial advisors’ confidence in the current state of the economy sank last month to its lowest point year-to-date, while optimism in the stock market continued to rise.

Economy 113
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Longform links: the digital biosphere

Abnormal Returns

Books A look at "Opus: The Cult of Dark Money, Human Trafficking, and Right-Wing Conspiracy Inside the Catholic Church" by Gareth Gore. (nymag.com) An excerpt from “Fools on the Hill: The Hooligans, Saboteurs, Conspiracy Theorists and Dunces who Burned Down the House,” by Dana Milbank. (wapo.st) A Q&A with Alok Sama author of "The Money Trap: Lost Illusions Inside the Tech Bubble.

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. In the July Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 74% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 11% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

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If It Aint Broke, Don’t Fix It: A Dangerous Mindset

Time and time again we tell ourselves and others NOT take action on something that is not "broken." We apply that mindset at home and at work. Sometimes, it doesn’t work out so well. Because when it's truly broken, it's usually an emergency, costs more and causes stress. Join us in this webinar where we share ways where you are able to anticipate your needs, understand benefits that you will get from getting better now instead of later, and relieving your team of tasks that they don't need to be

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Comparing ETF Returns Across Key Asset Classes

Wealth Management

The ETFs in this gallery are top funds for key asset classes, such as large-cap equities, small-cap equities, emerging markets, bond strategies and bitcoin.

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More Trending

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The Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: The Evolution of Berman Capital Advisors

Wealth Management

Justin Berman details the thinking behind his move from Goldman Sachs to independence in 2010, followed by the merger with Cresset Asset Management.

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Planning For Early Retirement

A Wealth of Common Sense

The Roth Man himself, Bill Sweet, joined me on the show this week to discuss questions about taxes in marriage, retirement withdrawal strategies, the tax implications of selling farmland and how to manage tax rates in early retirement.

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Former Dakota Executive Carina Diamond Joins $1.7B RIA Gries

Wealth Management

Diamond will also serve as Chief Growth Officer for Gries’ parent company, The 4100 Group Financial Services.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 218,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending September 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000 , a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 219,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,750, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average.

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4 Things Great Companies Do to Improve Cash Flow

Speaker: Don Gallianza, Credit Manager at Chevron Phillips Chemical and Indy Chakrabarti, Chief Marketing Officer at HighRadius

4 Case Studies to Optimize DSO 26 Days Sales Outstanding. Already better than most. But, should you improve on that? Why would 3 fewer days even matter? It matters because it fundamentally transforms business outcomes. Join this webinar to explore 4 things companies do to reclaim hard dollars - not just soft costs - and go from good to great! What You'll Learn 6 operational KPIs every AR manager should track: Define and track these metrics to enhance performance, drive efficiency, and make infor

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$18B Homrich Berg to Sell Minority Stake to TPG

Wealth Management

The deal with private equity firm TPG would value the RIA integrator at around $1 billion, according to a Reuters report.

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Q2 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at 3.0%, In Line With Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

The U.S. economy grew at an expected pace during the second quarter of this year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.99% in Q2 2024, according to the final estimate. The latest estimate is the same as the forecasted 3.0% growth and is a pickup from the Q1 2024 GDP final estimate of 1.6%.

Economy 64
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Report: $17B Homrich Berg to Sell Minority Stake to TPG

Wealth Management

The deal with private equity firm TPG would value the RIA integrator at around $1 billion, according to a Reuters report.

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Wall Street Has Proven That Trust Can Be Rebuilt

Advisor Perspectives

America’s financial industry has long had trust issues. Never mind the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-08; mistrust of the markets dates back to at least 1929, if not the Dutch East India collapse of 1769. But this history has an upside: Financial institutions have a lot of experience creating systems to build, maintain and restore trust — and have learned lessons that can be applied across the economy.

Economy 64
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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Carson Wealth Acquires $400M Montana RIA

Wealth Management

Carson Wealth establishes its second Billings, Mont. location with the acquisition of True North Financial.

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September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.1 million SAAR, Up 2% YoY

Calculated Risk

From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Forecast for 9-Month-High SAAR Despite Drop in Volume (pay content). Brief excerpt: If September’s outlook holds true, Q3 sales will decline 1.8% year-over-year. However, deliveries in October-December, goosed by two additional selling days vs. the year-ago period, are forecast to rise 7.4% from like-2023, leaving volume for entire-2024 at 15.9 million, up from 2023’s 15.5 million. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

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Reimagining Cash Flow Generation with Covered Calls

Wealth Management

Investors are stepping up the use of covered call strategies even as stocks repeatedly hit new highs.

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NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 0.6% in August; Down 3.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Edged Up 0.6% in August Pending home sales in August rose 0.6% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West posted monthly gains in transactions, while the Northeast recorded a loss. Year-over-year, the West registered growth, but the Northeast, Midwest and South declined. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 70.6 in August.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Smarsh Building AI Intelligent Agent for Compliance

Wealth Management

Once complete and available, the Intelligent Agent should help relieve the burden of manual communications review on compliance officers.

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Friday: Personal Income & Outlays

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET Personal Income and Outlays, August 2024. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for September).

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Humana’s Bullish Outlook: Medicare Supplement’s Role in a Balanced Healthcare Portfolio

NAIFA Advisor Today

Discover Humana's optimistic stance on Medicare Supplement plans and their strategic approach to support agents and brokers for a successful Annual Election Period (AEP) in 2024.

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Q2 GDP Growth Unrevised at 3.0% Annual Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Second Quarter 2024 and Annual Update Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024 , according to the "third" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.6 percent (revised).

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Three Steps for Using Data and AI to Uncover Your Niche and Supercharge Your Marketing

Wealth Management

Maintaining and getting the most out of your CRM’s data takes some effort.

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Deconstructing Covered Call Funds & The Fires in Ecuador

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

A few things today starting with wildfires in Ecuador. Ecuador has been a favorite retirement destination for American expats for quite a while. We've written about Ecuador in this context several times and followed up in the last couple of years as political and social volatility has escalated. It seems to have mostly impacted Quito while it has primarily been Cuenca that has been the expat destination.

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Unemployment Claims Down 4K, Better Than Estimates Expected

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending September 21st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 218,000. This represents a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's figure and is better than the 224,000 economists were expecting.

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Stepping Into Success With Medicare Supplements With Greg Etchison and Scott Wilson

NAIFA Advisor Today

Greg Etchison is an experienced professional in the Medicare supplement business. With a career spanning over 25 years in the healthcare industry, he also has extensive experience across major carriers. Greg is passionate about educating people about healthcare options and optimizing coverage for seniors. He is a leading voice in Medicare supplement education, guiding individuals through the complexities of healthcare.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Sam Altman Is Spreading Himself Too Thin

Advisor Perspectives

Sam Altman has his hands in countless projects while also building “mankind’s last invention”: artificial general intelligence, or AI systems that surpass our own cognitive abilities. These galactic aspirations were reinforced on Monday when Altman published a dramatic blog post reminding us that superintelligence will bring prosperity for everyone.

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Carson Wealth Expands Montana Presence with the Addition of True North Financial

Carson Wealth

Carson Wealth announced the expansion of its Montana presence through a strategic partnership with Billings-based True North Financial, now known as Carson Wealth | True North Financial. This collaboration establishes Carson’s second Billings location. The six-person team, led by managing partner, wealth advisor, Ty Vogele, and wealth advisors David Guenthner, CEPA ® and Ryan Wittman, AIF ® , manages over $400 million in assets.

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Wall Street Drives Office Revival on Manhattan’s Ritziest Street

Advisor Perspectives

Financial services companies are office hunting on one of New York City’s fanciest addresses, Park Avenue, and the biggest beneficiary may be a once-beleaguered real estate investment trust that happens to find itself in the right place at the right time.