Thu.Jun 13, 2024

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Debunking QSR Minimum Wage BS: A Follow Up

The Big Picture

@TBPInvictus here A few days ago, Barry and I detailed how unscrupulous bad actors had taken Not Seasonally Adjusted data to falsely claim that California’s new $20/hour minimum wage had cost the state almost 10,000 quick-serve restaurant (QSR) jobs. I wrote: It appears to me that the Journal got that number from BLS. However, BLS only offers the series without seasonal adjustment; this makes a very meaningful difference.

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Thursday links: nonsensical claims

Abnormal Returns

Big Tech Apple's ($AAPL) AI announcement(s) helped add some $200 billion in market cap. (axios.com) It's kind of shocking just how big, Big Tech has gotten. (sherwood.news) Commercial real estate Where distressed office building transactions are taking place. (nytimes.com) Office CMBS default rates are soaring. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Apple New Apple ($AAPL) features could 'Sherlock' a number of third party apps.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 140: Are You Worrying About Scale Before You Even Have A Scale Problem

Nerd's Eye View

As the financial advice industry continues to move toward providing full-blown professional services rather than focusing primarily on product sales, advisory (advicery?) firms are increasingly experiencing similar stages of growth in their practices. From the initial stage of onboarding their first clients to the point of hitting a capacity wall and deciding whether to increase their headcount, and later to a threshold where an ensemble business eventually becomes an enterprise, advicers face m

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Longform links: the chip war

Abnormal Returns

Books A Q&A with Wes Marshall author of "Killed by a Traffic Engineer: Shattering the Delusion That Science Underlies Our Transportation System." (bloomberg.com) Lessons learned from Zoë Schlanger's “The Light Eaters: How the Unseen World of Plant Intelligence Offers a New Understanding of Life on Earth.” (newyorker.com) A Q&A with Mickey Bergman author of "In the Shadows: True Stories of High-Stakes Negotiations to Free Americans Captured Abroad.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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The Two Types of Money People

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I consider myself a good conservative money manager for my personal finances but recently I have been looking for a nice house that I can enjoy for years to come. I am 56 and an early retiree. I just sold my condo and now have a total of $3.6 million mostly invested in broad market ETFs except for the $450k in cash set aside for a new house.

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It’s Time to Cut Rates

Discipline Funds

I am ready to call it. The Fed should cut rates. July would be the right time to start in my opinion. To be clear, I don’t think they will do this. I still think the baseline first cut is November because the next few inflation prints will appear sticky enough for the Fed to keep rates where they are. And the election is too close to the September meeting for them to initiate cuts then.

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The Shortest Path to Excellence

Wealth Management

Taking the steps to deliver better service, drive growth, and achieve your goals faster can result in extraordinary benefits.

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Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cools in May

Advisor Perspectives

Wholesale inflation unexpectedly cooled last month. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI decelerated from 2.3% in April to 2.2% in May.

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BNY Pershing Lays Off Business Consulting Group, Product Staff

Wealth Management

Sources close to the company say the clearing and custody firm has let go of its business consulting group and half a dozen people in its product group, just a week after its annual INSITE conference.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 36.0% YoY

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 35.2% YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 36.0% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.

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PGIM Seeks Deals to Expand Private-Market Assets to $500B

Wealth Management

PGIM has been present in private credit for decades, but its plan for a major push is coming at a time when some of the industry titans are starting to worry if the boom is coming to an end.

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Meet Loyal Member Chris Davenport

NAIFA Advisor Today

In the ever-evolving world of insurance, finding your niche and building lasting relationships are keys to success. For Chris Davenport, a seasoned professional in the field, his journey into the insurance business began unexpectedly but has since flourished into a fulfilling career dedicated to helping others protect their futures.

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Avoiding Legal Nightmares and Pitfalls When On-Boarding New Advisors

Wealth Management

It’s easy to obsess over expanding your practice but don’t let that stop you from taking the simple legal steps necessary to protect all your hard work.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Battle of the Bots: Comparing and Ranking Nine AI Notetaker Solutions

XY Planning Network

Unless you’ve been living under a rock in a deep cave on an uninhabited island, you’ve witnessed AI revolutionizing industries, carving new landscapes everywhere it touches—in what feels like nanoseconds. Financial planning is no exception. In this article we’re going to focus on the opportunities AI offers advisors to streamline operations and reduce costs regarding note and record-keeping.

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Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: An Attorney's Advice on Buying, Selling or Transitioning Your Business

Wealth Management

Attorney Corey Kupfer offers advice to all advisors, whether considering change or not, including perspectives on contractual obligations and potential landmines one might encounter in a move.

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One-time and Ongoing Services to Offer Under the Fee-for-Service Model

AdvicePay

With the fee-for-service model, you can customize service offerings for clients seeking advice who don’t (yet) have traditional portfolio assets to transfer to your firm’s custodian for full-time management. This approach allows you to engage these clients by charging a fee that’s covered through their monthly cash flow. Much like the maintenance of a car ensures its longevity and optimal performance, financial planning demands both one-time and ongoing attention.

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Want to Invest Like a Member of Congress? Tuttle to Launch an ETF for That

Wealth Management

The Tuttle Capital Congressional Trading ETF will base its holdings on the current investments of members of Congress and their families.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy

Advisor Perspectives

Certain segments of the economy and stock market have experienced much stronger recoveries this year, underscoring a severe bifurcation between the "haves" and "have nots.

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Strategies for Boosting Growth and Talent in Hybrid RIAs

Wealth Management

As the financial services sector braces for yet another transformative period, the hybrid RIA firm of the future needs to adapt its recruiting efforts to attract top-tier talent.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000 , an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 222,250. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

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Fidelity, Envestnet Increase Collaboration On Managed Accounts

Wealth Management

Improvements and integrations to the custodian's FMAX platform, and Envestnet's Insurance Exchange are among the updates to rollout.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Creating A Successful Outcome

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

A college buddy shared on Facebook that he is unexpectedly out of work and looking for a job. I know nothing of his financial situation so I am not talking about that. More generically, this is another anecdote of someone in their mid-50's who has had his hand forced. The reality is that it is not easy to find a job at that age, pretty much my age, that pays about the same.

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OFC Wealth Management: Taking Some Of The Stress Out Of Divorce With Specialized Software

Wealth Management

Emily Jaffe, president and Certified Divorce Financial Analyst at OFC Wealth Management, uses a customized technology stack at her $137 AUM firm to bring “Order From Chaos.

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Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2024

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2024 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.

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Wells Fargo Fires Over a Dozen for ‘Simulation of Keyboard Activity’

Wealth Management

The staffers, all in the firm’s wealth- and investment-management unit, were “discharged after review of allegations involving simulation of keyboard activity creating impression of active work.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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A Very Early Look at 2025 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base

Calculated Risk

The BLS reported yesterday: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 308.163 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA).

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Navigating the Tech Evolution: Lessons from Top Buy-Side CTOs

Wealth Management

Tuesday, July 22, 2024 | 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time

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Unemployment Claims Up 13K to Highest Level Since August

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending June 8th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 242,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading is higher than the forecast of 225,000 jobless claims and is the highest level since August 2023.

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