Wed.Nov 22, 2023

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Slowing U.S. Economy, State by State

The Big Picture

We spend way too much time trying to predict the future (especially this time of year). Rather than engage in futility, let’s look at the coincident indexes in all 50 states over the past 3 months, via the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (October 2023). Note: I have been occasionally eyeballing this map since 2008 , and it does a good job of showing the overall trend of the economy (on an obvious lag).

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Personal finance links: sidestepping competition

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Roben Farzad talks with Morgan Housel, author of "Same as Ever.Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes." (pod.link) Thomas Kopelman talks with Daniel Crosby about money lessons for life. (podcasts.apple.com) Mason King talks with Peter Dunn about five things you need to know about your finances. (ibj.com) Christine Benz talks safe withdrawal rates with Amy Arnott and John Rekenthaler.

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Anatomy Of An RIA Sale, Merger Or Acquisition: 5 Important Legal & Compliance Steps

Nerd's Eye View

For all of the myriad ways financial advisors can structure and run their practices, firm owners generally encounter similar stages in the development of their firms. At some point, solo advisors will need to decide whether to increase their headcount, and an ensemble practice may later evolve into a centralized brand with significant enterprise value.

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Wednesday links: our imperfect lives

Abnormal Returns

AI Sam Altman is back at OpenAI, but everything has changed. (bigtechnology.com) Om Malik, "If you are a startup, an organization, or a large company, you need to learn from the past five days [at OpenAI] and start building resilience in your product plans." (om.co) The OpenAI fiasco highlights the importance of corporate governance. (theatlantic.com) Finance Banks are planning to start.lending again.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Wolfsen’s Roadmap for Orion

Wealth Management

Integrations, analytics and measured innovation are the guidelines the former AssetMark CEO will follow in stitching together the firm’s bundle of businesses into a unified wealthstack.

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Working With A Mix Of Advisor-Specific And Customized Business Technology

Wealth Management

Gregory Gardner relies in large measure on technologies from Orion Advisor Solutions to run and manage his $85 million in AUM RIA, but has gone a different route with some of his tech.

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Suzlon Energy Vs CG Power – Financials, Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Suzlon Energy Vs CG Power : India is currently undergoing a revolution in its energy space. The country that has always been massively dependent on burning coal is now shifting to something greener & cleaner. The Companies that we will look at are at the forefront of this space. Although the Companies are slightly different, one manufactures products that generate energy while the other manufactures products to store this energy.

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A New 1042 QRP Team Member Joins Alpha Architect: Erik Chavez

Alpha Architect

We are pleased to announce that Erik Chavez has joined Alpha Architect and will work alongside Kyle and Doug to support our 1042 QRP ESOP service (qualified replacement property for ESOP rollovers). While new to our team, Erik has been our friend for a long time. Erik is a multiple-time March for the Fallen survivor -- see below when he is part of the MFTF clean-up crew (cirled in blue).

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 17, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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401(k) Real Talk Episode 86: November 22, 2023

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussion about cyber hacks, the new DOL fiduciary rule, Envestnet's partnership with Empower, AI and more.

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Lawler on Existing Home Sales, Population Projections and Household Slowdown

Calculated Risk

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler on Existing Home Sales, Population Projections and Household Slowdown Excerpt: Census’ new long-term US population projections released last Friday were massively lower than the previous long-term projection released in 2017. In a report earlier this week I highlighted the how the projected components of population change (births, deaths, and net international migration) differed in the two forecasts.

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Animal Spirits: You Can’t Quantify Happiness

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts: See here to register for the YCharts Year-End Strategy webinar with the Animal Spirits team! On today’s show, we discuss: Power laws in the stock market Some of the trillions parked in cash may trickle back into stocks now that the market is rallying How the young should invest The Fed is charting a course to stagflation and recession Summers says.

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Matt Stewart on Credit Markets

Wealth Management

Matt Stewart, Chief Operating Officer, Oaktree Strategic Credit Fund at Brookfield Asset Management discusses credit markets.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Unemployment Claims Down 24K, Better Than Expected

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending November 18, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 209,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 225,000.

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Avantax Shareholders Approve Sale to Cetera

Wealth Management

Avantax shareholders voted in favor of the previously-announced deal to sell the company to Cetera, according to SEC filings.

Sales 111
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Diving Deep On Return Stacking

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Today I want to dig into a couple of different things related to return stacking. As a quick explainer, return stacking is the use of leverage in a portfolio to add an alternative asset class/strategy on top of the more typical mix of stocks and bonds. This is usually done with the intention of adding an uncorrelated asset class to a portfolio in an attempt to reduce portfolio volatility.

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RIA Edge Podcast: Insights with Lisa Salvi on Unlocking Growth and Talent Acquisition

Wealth Management

Schwab's Lisa Salvi shares how successful firms leverage a comprehensive approach to long-term success.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Episode #509: Austin Root, Stansberry Asset Management – The Case For Productive Assets

Meb Faber Research

Episode #509: Austin Root, Stansberry Asset Management – The Case For Productive Assets Guest: Austin Root is the Chief Investment Officer of Stansberry Asset Management. Previously, he co-founded and ran North Oak Capital, a New York-based hedge fund that received a strategic investment from Julian Robertson and Tiger Management. Date Recorded: 11/1/2023 | Run-Time: 1:00:14 […] The post Episode #509: Austin Root, Stansberry Asset Management – The Case For Productive Ass

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RIA Roundup: AmeriFlex Group Adds 2 Teams, $500M AUM

Wealth Management

Ahead of Thanksgiving, Osaic-affiliated AmeriFlex added two teams in four states and Steward Partners moved into Georgia.

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Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in October

Calculated Risk

From ICE / Black Knight: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure starts rose in October, despite serious delinquencies returning to 17-year lows • The national delinquency rate fell 3 basis points (bps) to 3.26% in October , marking a 9 bps (-2.8%) improvement from the same time last year • Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) fell to 447K, once again hitting their lowest levels since 2006 • Loans 30-days late also declined, marking the first such improvement in five months • De

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Moore vs. United States: Implications on a Wealth Tax

Wealth Management

Pay close attention to the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision.

Taxes 126
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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Durable Goods Orders Fall More Than Expected in October

Advisor Perspectives

New orders for manufactured durable goods fell more than expected in October, coming in at $279.44B. This is a 5.4% decrease from the previous month and is more than the expected 3.1% decline. The series is up 0.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were unchanged from the previous month and up 1.3% from one year ago.

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Best Stocks and Sectors in India That Have High Demand in the Future

Trade Brains

Best Stocks and Sectors in India : Every once in a while the technologies and innovations keep changing. Some of these stand the test of time by solving a solution, increasing operational efficiency, or reducing costs. Companies engaged in developing and distributing such technologies and innovative products or services from initial stages eventually become futuristic sectors that offer attractive investment opportunities.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls for Fourth Consecutive Month

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment fell for a fourth consecutive month in November according to the final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index came in at 61.3, down 2.5 points (-3.9%) from the October final. This morning's reading was above the forecast of 60.4.

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November Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.8 million SAAR, Up 11% YoY

Calculated Risk

From WardsAuto: November U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Improve on Past Three Months (pay content). Brief excerpt: The recent falloff in the SAAR from summer highs could mean more consumers are reaching price fatigue. It also could be that some of the stronger selling segments – especially fullsize trucks – of the past two-plus years are closer than other segments to meeting the pent-up demand built up since the inventory drain caused by the semiconductor shortage began in early 2021.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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US Pensions to Gorge on Corporate Bonds as Funding Levels Soar

Advisor Perspectives

A quirk in retirement fund accounting is making corporate pensions look particularly flush now, giving them more incentive to cut risk by dumping equities and buying bonds.

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Conflicting research and thoughts on ESG

Norman Marks

Three parts to this post: What is ESG? What are those conflicting reports? What does this all mean for practitioners? Part 1 OK, it’s time for me to ‘fess up. I am confused by “ESG”.

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Risks and Opportunities in Structured Credit

Advisor Perspectives

My guest, Sam Reid, is here to discuss the role and impact of structured credit within a retail investor portfolio. In an environment of rising rates and accumulating debt, this asset class offers investors a chance to alleviate risks and further enhance their portfolios. Sam uses a process-driven approach to minimize the impact of rising rates, and his underwriting standards allow for enhancements to be built into securities.

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