Wed.Jan 10, 2024

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At the Money: Investor Incompetence

The Big Picture

At The Money: David Dunning professor of psychology at the University of Michigan ( Go Blue! ) (January 10, 2024) Investor incompetence might play a larger role in poor performance than you think. That’s thanks to a phenomenon called the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: David Dunning is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan.

Medical 290
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Personal finance links: investment politicians

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Michael Mauboussin about why it is so hard to buck the crowd. (ritholtz.com) Claer Barrett talks with Morgan Housel about his book "Same As Ever." (ft.com) Jim O'Shaughnessy talks with Jared Dillian about his new book "No Worries: How To Live a Stress-free Financial Life." (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Khe Hy talks with Manisha Thakor about separating your self-worth from your net-worth.

Investing 269
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Using ‘Magic Wand’ Questions To Help Clients Articulate Financial Needs And Goals (That They Otherwise Struggle To Express)

Nerd's Eye View

In initial discovery meetings, financial advisors face the challenge of eliciting specific goals from new clients – a crucial step for crafting a comprehensive financial plan. Asking direct queries may elicit vague responses like "I want to be on track for retirement", which tends to lack the detail needed to plan effectively and spark the client's motivation to actually accomplish those goals.

Clients 246
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Wednesday links: living through downturns

Abnormal Returns

Markets Anything can happen in the stock market over the short run. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The 60/40 portfolio had a big comeback in 2023. (morningstar.com) Bond investor sentiment has turned. (entrylevel.topdowncharts.com) Strategy 12 lessons the markets taught investors in 2023 including 'Valuations cannot be used to time markets.' (morningstar.com) 10 ideas from 2023 that stuck including 'Keep it simple in investing when everyone knows everything.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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SEC Approves 11 Bitcoin ETFs

Wealth Management

The decision comes a day after the commission’s X handle was hacked, with someone falsely posting the SEC had decided to approve the funds.

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More Trending

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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs in 2023.

Economy 119
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Help Clients Recognize Problems and Take Action to Solve Them

Wealth Management

What advisors can learn from hot water heaters.

Clients 118
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Gundlach: For 2024, Expect Lower Rates, Higher Volatility and a Recession

Advisor Perspectives

Rates are heading down, volatility will increase and there is a 75% chance of a recession in 2024, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.

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Life Insurance as an Investment for Retirement

Wealth Management

Sold as a tax play, it’s more about the policy and the agent.

Insurance 118
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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What The Hell Is Going On In Ecuador?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Every now and then we talk about expat living as part of a retirement plan, usually the context is an underfunded retirement plan. There are many countries where the cost of living ranges from somewhat less expensive than the US to dramatically cheaper. One popular country in expat living circles is Ecuador. We've talked about here as well. It seems like Cuenca is one of the more popular destinations in Ecuador.

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New Risks with Grantor Trust Reimbursement Provisions

Wealth Management

IRS changes its position in CCA 202352018.

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Suburban Millionaires Beware — Private Equity Needs You

Advisor Perspectives

Blackstone Inc.’s private equity fund for wealthy individuals is a harbinger of two trends that many expect will transform investment management in the next decade.

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Goldman Sachs Names New Head of Retirement

Wealth Management

Greg Wilson, currently the head of Workplace Advisory Solutions for Goldman Sachs Ayco, will serve as head of retirement within Goldman Sachs’ Asset & Wealth Management division.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of those questions concerned real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment are on this blog). I've added some thoughts and made some predictions for each question. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% in 2023.

Economy 80
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Live from Heckerling: Is ESG Investing Sustainable for Trustees?

Wealth Management

To what extent can a trustee allow for beneficiaries’ wishes and still retain settlor intent?

Investing 115
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Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215 thousand, up from 202 thousand. • Also at 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.

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Adjusted for Risk: AdvisorShares' Noah Hamman Puts a Spotlight on Active ETFs

Wealth Management

AdvisorShares' Noah Hamman provides a wealth of insight into the growing popularity of active ETFs.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in December, Down 11% from Peak

Calculated Risk

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Improves 3% in December The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network (DCN), rose 3% in December to 186.6 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 181.5. Over the month, commercial planning grew 1.0% and institutional planning improved 6.1%. “ The Momentum Index ended the year 11% below the November 2022 peak , ultimately stabilizing as the year progressed.

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Live from Heckerling: Modern Estate Administration

Wealth Management

New (as well as old) issues arising after death.

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Which Bonds Belong in Your Clients’ Allocations

Advisor Perspectives

The turmoil in the bond market over the past three years has been dramatic. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has risen approximately 360 basis points since the beginning of 2021, and it nearly hit 5% in late October. That has caused investors to question the value and role of a fixed-income allocation within portfolios. But two nagging uncertainties – the Fed and inflation – should be less of a problem as we enter 2024.

Clients 72
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The AmeriFlex Group Breaks Record with 60 Recruits, $2.75B in Assets in 2023

Wealth Management

Ending last year on a high note, the self-styled ‘home for hybrids’ reached $9.5 billion in assets and launched an acquisition-focused OSJ model.

Assets 110
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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Soft Landings are a Rare Species

Advisor Perspectives

Today's popular narrative is a growing consensus for the Fed to engineer a soft landing and a “Goldilocks” economy.

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-January provides a snapshot of the current housing market. This includes sales, house prices, inventory, mortgage rates, rents and more. I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale !

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The Search for Happiness Can Lead to Unhappiness

Advisor Perspectives

In the quest for happiness for ourselves and our clients, we pursue self-improvement, personal achievements, and the accumulation of material possessions. But what if this emphasis impairs our ability to find it?

Clients 69
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 9.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 5, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account for the New Year’s holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Emerging Local Debt

Advisor Perspectives

In this piece we compare two ways to take advantage of the USD’s richness versus emerging market currencies: EM equities and EM local currency debt. We believe that for relative value, diversification, and potential alpha reasons, EM local currency debt deserves a prominent place in portfolios today.

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Stakeholder’s Grill: Institutional Investors Bet Big on Barbeque Nation

Trade Brains

Barbeque Nation : The share of the most prominent casual dining restaurant, Barbeque-Nation Hospitality Limited, has lost 31.5% over the last year. The company got listed amidst COVID around 2021, and it has not been an easy sail for the last two years. But the interesting thing is that the institutional investors have raised their stake in this company from 34% in March 2022 to around 50% in June 2022.

Food 59
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What if I Don’t Want to Grow My Practice?

Advisor Perspectives

What if I like running my practice the way we are right now?

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