Wed.Feb 21, 2024

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Wednesday links: selling certainty

Abnormal Returns

Markets The list of Europe's biggest stocks are filled with pharma companies. (euronews.com) Hedge funds have been underweight the Magnificent Seven. (ft.com) Strategy Certainty sells. Nuance is what matters. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Don't invest in alternatives unless you are in it for the long run. (morningstar.com) Private equity Private equity distributions are way off their highs.

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FinCEN’s New 2024 Requirement For State-Registered RIAs (And Other Small Businesses) To Report Beneficial Ownership Information (BOI)

Nerd's Eye View

In 2021, Congress passed the Corporate Transparency Act, which, for the first time, required small business entities such as LLCs and corporations to report identifying information on their "beneficial owners" (i.e., those who own at least 25% of, or who otherwise exercise substantial control over the business). The law's provisions became effective on January 1, 2024, and so many small businesses – including a good number of RIA firms – will be required to submit a Beneficial Owners

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Personal finance links: shaming and blaming

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Jeffrey Hirsch about how the stock market performs during war. (ritholtz.com) Khe Hy talks with Kyla Scanlon about lessons learned from the attention economy. (open.spotify.com) Thomas Kopelman and Jacob Turner discuss some common personal finance misconceptions. (podcasts.apple.com) Chris Williamson talks the laws of human psychology with Morgan Housel.

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At the Money: Why Self-Insight Is So Important  

The Big Picture

At the Money: David Dunning professor of psychology at the University of Michigan (January 10, 2024) How well do you understand yourself? For investors, it is an important question. We’re co-conspirators in self-deception and this prevents us from having accurate self-knowledge. This does not lead to good results in the markets. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: David Dunning is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan.

Media 144
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Reports Sluggish Conditions to Start 2024"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 18th Consecutive Month

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Reports Sluggish Conditions to Start 2024 rchitecture firm billings remained soft entering into 2024, with an AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 46.2 in January. Any score below 50.0 indicates decreasing business conditions. “ This now marks the lengthiest period of declining billings since 2010 , although it is reassuring that

Economy 121

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Bharat Electronic’s Growth Story: Will a ?76,000 Crore Order Book Propel Future Success?

Trade Brains

Bharat Electronics: In the budget plan for the year 2023-24, the government increased the money allocated for defense to ₹5.94 lakh crore. Further, in the interim Union Budget 2024-25 the allocation mentioned was over Rs 6.21 lakh crore This increase in funding represented a positive outlook for companies like Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), which creates advanced technology for our defense.

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How to Use Macroeconomic Investing Analysis

Discipline Funds

When people think of macro investing they tend to think of Paul Tudor Jones, George Soros or Ray Dalio. These investors are using big macro trends to actively trade the markets. And while these strategies might work for some they will fail for most, in large part because they ignore the most important lessons from macro. Let me explain. Macroeconomics is the study of aggregate economies or large components of the economy.

Investing 105
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401(k) Real Talk Episode 94: February 21, 2024

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussion on a DC year-end results, Pontera's deal with Captrust, Michael Kitces on the DOL rule, EBSA recoveries and the awakening of plan sponsors.

Planning 109
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Are the Magnificent Seven in a Bubble? Ask the Nifty Fifty

Advisor Perspectives

None of the Magnificent Seven companies existed in the heyday of the Nifty Fifty, but a unique valuation and narrative thread aligns the companies.

Valuation 103
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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San Diego Trio Creates Family Trust-Backed RIA

Wealth Management

Currently with another RIA in San Diego, filings indicate Blue Sky Capital Consultants Group intends to offer asset-based, fixed-fee and hourly services.

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A New Index To Make An ETF

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

First a followup to yesterday's post about return stacking and the notion of the free 10% that Corey isolated in his blog post. Underpinning what ReturnStacked ETFs are trying to offer is a way to add alternative strategies to a portfolio without having to shave off a little equity or bond exposure or shave off exposure to both in order to make room for whatever alt someone might want to add.

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The Healthy Advisor: What Makes Advisors Happy With Michael Kitces

Wealth Management

Kitces discusses the 2023 Advisor Wellbeing Study and the factors contributing to advisors’ happiness.

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14 Most Useful Personal Finance Ratios And How To Apply Them

Clever Girl Finance

The term personal finance ratios might give you flashbacks to math class, learning various formulas, equations, and ratios. Back then, if students looked like they were zoning out, your teacher might have told you “pay attention, this will be useful to you later.” Well, this time, you don’t have to wait—a lot of the equations below will be useful to you right now!

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Advisors See a Split Between the Economy and the Markets

Wealth Management

The Advisor Sentiment Index, relaunched in January, suggests financial advisors are much more optimistic about the state of the stock market than they are about the broader economy—though most expect the economy to catch up over the next year.

Economy 102
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FOMC Minutes: "Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy"

Calculated Risk

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 30–31, 2024. Excerpt: In discussing risk-management considerations that could bear on the policy outlook, participants remarked that while the risks to achieving the Committee's employment and inflation goals were moving into better balance, they remained highly attentive to inflation risks.

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Another Advisor Moves to LPL Financial from Osaic

Wealth Management

A North Carolina advisor is moving to LPL from Osaic and SagePoint Financial. His team is the second one to make the same move this month.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 10.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 16, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 10.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Animal Spirits: The Fed Should Cut Already

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts: See here for more information on YChart’s Advisor Pulse newsletter On today’s show, we discuss: Why Americans suddenly stopped hanging out Pods, passive flows, and punters What’s driving the stock market returns? Why not 100% equity? These teenagers know more about investing than you do Young adults are getting used to living on a financial.

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Aaron Klein Joins Tech Consultancy Ezra Group as 'Executive in Residence'

Wealth Management

Former Nitrogen CEO Aaron Klein has joined the advisor technology consultancy Ezra Group as an executive in residence.

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Junk-Bond Market Gets Riskier With Erosion in Credit Quality

Advisor Perspectives

The $1.4 trillion US junk-bond market is getting junkier, as more debt gets either downgraded or elevated out of the high-yield universe altogether, leaving greater potential risks for investors.

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Estate of Texaco Heiress Avoids $18M Penalty

Wealth Management

Taxpayer’s “quiet disclosures” corrected her delinquent foreign bank and financial account reports.

Banking 111
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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215 thousand initial claims, up from 212 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. • At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

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401(k)s Will Be Gone Within a Decade

Wealth Management

The intellectual case for getting rid of tax-advantaged retirement plans is strong, and the political case is catching up.

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Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Breaks $52K for First Time Since December 2021

Advisor Perspectives

Bitcoin's price broke past $52,000 this past week for the first time since December 2021. BTC is currently up ~18% year to date. Here's the latest charts on three of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share through 2/20/24.

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Pragmatic Approaches To the Corporate Transparency Act

Wealth Management

Practical action steps you might take to address the Corporate Transparency Act.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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The Three Types of People You Can’t Ignore

Advisor Perspectives

Marketing is about people, and there are three categories of people that you are likely pushing away on a professional basis due to lack of perceived prospect value.

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Business Succession Planning Dos and Don’ts

Wealth Management

Three real-world examples of succession planning advisors can learn from.

Planning 114
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Nvidia’s High-Stakes Earnings Moment Has Entire Market on Edge

Advisor Perspectives

Nvidia Corp.’s market-leading advance has left even the bulls questioning if an earnings beat will be enough to propel the AI chipmaker’s shares higher.