The Big Picture
OCTOBER 23, 2023
The chart in this morning’s reads shows what it is going to cost to fund the interest payments on the federal debt. It’s gone vertical as rates have moved from effectively 0 to over 5%. When rates were zero all of corporate America refinanced, lowering the cost of their debt to historically low levels. Households did the same; today 61% of homeowners with a mortgage are paying 4% or less in interest.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.4% week-over-week. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of October 20th, inventory was at 554 thousand (7-day average), compared to 546 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 12.9%. And inventory is up 36.7% from the seasonal bottom 27 weeks ago.
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Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Applying a 2% rate to the wealth of the world’s 2,750 billionaires could raise some $250 billion a year.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 23, 2023
From ICE / Black Knight: ICE First Look at Monthly Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Rose in September While Foreclosure Activity Remained Muted • The national delinquency rate rose to 3.29% in September , up 12 basis points (BPS) from August and +13BPS year over year, marking only the second – and largest – annual increase in the past 2.5 years • Despite the rise, the delinquency rate is still 71BPS below the level of pre-pandemic September 2019 • Loans 30 days past due rose by 48.8K (+5.1%)
Speaker: Claire Grosjean
Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
The firm has also launched a new capital solutions program, as it kicks off its annual ConnectED conference this week.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 23, 2023
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Charles Schwab Has Had a Terrible Year. The Surprising Reason the Brokerage King Won’t Be Dethroned. For some advisors, the move to Charles Schwab from TD Ameritrade didn’t go smoothly. Chances are, they’ll stick around anyway. ( Barron’s ) • A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus : In WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates. ( Wall Street Journal ) but see Car Owners
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Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 23, 2023
EVs Solid-state batteries would upend the EV calculus. (on.ft.com) States are looking to pay for roads as EVs drag down gasoline taxes. (wsj.com) How the war on the 'war on cars' became a rallying cry. (oversharing.substack.com) Transport E-bikes are more than just a souped-up bike. (theatlantic.com) Why airlines are banking on sustainable aviation fuel to decarbonize.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Rockefeller Global Family Office has announced its fourth recruit in three weeks, while Freestone Capital Management attracted an advisor from another RIA.
Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Many financial advisors take pride in the comprehensive nature of the advice they provide to clients and use the variety of services offered as a point of differentiation between themselves and other types of advisors. Though, at some point, covering a large number of financial planning topics can eat into an advisor's time, which is problematic if clients won't pay substantially more to receive that more comprehensive advice.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Rudy Adolf is the last remaining founder to leave his executive role in the wake of Focus’ sale to CD&R.
Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Energy Chevron ($CVX) is buying Hess ($HES). (reuters.com) Energy deals are happening but without much in the way of premiums. (washingtonpost.com) Banking Regional banks are feeling the pain of higher deposit rates. (wsj.com) Big banks are next. (semafor.com) Companies Netflix ($NFLX) is playing with fire with its price hikes. (lefsetz.com) Just how big is Costco's ($COST) clothing business?
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Active asset managers have been bleeding cash, and strategies to stem the outflows haven't had much effect. Many may not survive a bear market.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted several years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Non-traded alternative investment fundraising has reached more than $50 billion for the year, through the end of September, according to Robert A. Stanger & Co. More concerns have arisen about the potential broader fallout of WeWork’s struggles. These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world to start the new week.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Podcasts Daniel Crosby talks with Saundra Davis on how to effectively meet clients where they are. (standarddeviationspod.com) Michael Kitces and Carl Richards discuss the potential downside of specialized practices. (kitces.com) M&A The RIA buying frenzy is likely behind us. (investmentnews.com) The direction toward adviser independence is ongoing.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Interest-rate volatility should “remain quite high, at least through the mid-point of next year, according to the head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo Securities.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 23, 2023
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Lowest in a Week After Starting Higher In terms of MND's index, we started at 8.01 this morning versus 7.97 on Friday afternoon. The intraday gains ultimately paved the way for a drop to 7.91. As always, keep in mind that this is an index value that represents an a effective top tier rate for the most ideal 30yr fixed scenario.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Legal editor Anna Sulkin discusses this month's cover.
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Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in September A brief excerpt: Each month I track closed sales, new listings and active inventory in a sample of local markets around the country (over 40 local housing markets) in the US to get an early sense of changes in the housing market. In addition, we can look for regional differences.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Editor in Chief Susan R. Lipp discusses this month's issue.
Carson Wealth
OCTOBER 23, 2023
A late week sell-off saw stocks barely break their early October lows, with the S&P 500 now down 7.9% from the late-July peak. Although the weakness the past few months hasn’t been fun for investors, it is important to note that stocks are still up more than 10% for the year and a fourth-quarter rally is still expected. October volatility continued, but a major late-October low could be forming.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
David A. Handler and Alison E. Lothes highlight the most important tax developments of the past month.
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NAIFA Advisor Today
OCTOBER 23, 2023
NAIFA is proud to announce that John A. Davidson , LUTCF, FSS, President and CEO of Davidson Insurance & Financial Services , Inc., in Thousand Oaks, CA, is the 2023 recipient of NAIFA’s Terry Headley Lifetime Defender Award.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Sandra Swirski reports on Moore v. United States, which centers around whether unrealized earnings can be taxed.
Alpha Architect
OCTOBER 23, 2023
In this study, we introduce a novel measure of information content (Human-AI Differences, HAID) by exploiting the discrepancy between answers to questions at earnings calls provided by corporate executives and those given by several context-preserving Large Language Models (LLM) such as ChatGPT, Google Bard, and an open source LLM. Executives vs. Chatbots in Earnings Conference Q&A was originally published at Alpha Architect.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Al W. King III discusses intergenerational estate planning, taking into account the needs and concerns of the various generations of family members.
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Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 23, 2023
EVs States are looking to pay for roads as EVs drag down gasoline taxes. (wsj.com) How the war on the 'war on cars' became a rallying cry. (oversharing.substack.com) Transport E-bikes are more than just a souped-up bike. (theatlantic.com) Why airlines are banking on sustainable aviation fuel to decarbonize. (vox.com) Environment This Arizona town wants to import desalinated water from Mexico.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
The Schlapfer v. Commissioner decision provides some guidance.
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 23, 2023
For a fleeting moment this month, investment bankers in leveraged finance — the lucrative lending that oils the wheels of M&A and feeds the $1.3 trillion market for collateralized loan obligations — had rare cause for cheer.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Additional approaches to planning with this vehicle.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
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