The Big Picture
DECEMBER 1, 2023
The chart above shows that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the next 12 months, 69% of Consumers saying the same thing, with the yield curve predicting a 61% chance of a contraction. The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Markets The performance of major asset classes in November 2023. (capitalspectator.com) Even after November's rally low volatility stocks are still down on the year. (on.spdji.com) The magnificent seven stocks are having a big 2023, in part because they had a rough 2022. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Charlie Munger Charlie Munger perferfected the art of being a second-in-command.
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The Big Picture
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Welcome to December! Our end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • S&P 500’s Historic 8.9% Rally Blindsides Skeptics on Wall Street : The US stock market just posted its best month in almost a year and a half, and one of its best Novembers in decades, defying skeptics and fueling hopes for more gains to come. ( Bloomberg ) • Dimensional Fund Advisors Reaps $100B More in Assets With ETFs : The firm has $100 billion in assets under management in its nearly 40 exchange-traded funds, even though it
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Listening Young Americans are boosting their consumption of spoken audio. (edisonresearch.com) A look at your best options for audiobooks. (wsj.com) The Castro podcasting app may be going away. (sixcolors.com) Substack is adding video creation tools. (washingtonpost.com) Lists The best podcasts of 2023 including “The Big Dig.” (newyorker.com) The top podcasts of 2023 via Apple Podcasts, including the Huberman Lab.
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Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments this week in the case of SEC v. Jarkesy, which in a narrow sense focuses on the SEC's use of in-house Administrative Law Judges to hear securities law cases rather than traditional Federal jury trials, but in a broader sense could call into question the SEC's (and other government agencies') authority to make rules and enforce laws in
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 1, 2023
As the first AI-powered GPT assistant for financial advisors, SIFA is on a mission to automate ongoing communications between advisors and their clients.
Alpha Architect
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Ignoring the impact of taxes on the returns of taxable accounts is one of the biggest mistakes that can be made. After-Tax Performance of Actively Managed Funds was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 1, 2023
After leaving BNY Mellon | Pershing over the summer, Crafford and colleague Morgan McGovern have landed at Karl Heckenberg’s new RIA investment company.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 6.9% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the September Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 69% above the bubble peak in 2006.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 1, 2023
F2 Strategy co-founder and CEO Doug Fritz provides his take on the most important wealth management technology news of the last month.
Trade Brains
DECEMBER 1, 2023
In a city where nearly half of the population lives in slums, working their backs off to afford that extremely simple roof over their heads, there are some people who control large portions of land, passed down through generations or gifted decades ago in a city where land is scarce and where every square foot of space brings a huge premium. The city holds countless secrets close to its heart, and one among them is the identities of those who own lands in Mumbai.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Associated RIA and CPA firms add seven new employees and an office in Clinton, South Carolina.
Integrity Financial Planning
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Staying active in your retirement years can help you to maintain good health and longevity. Making physical activity a habit can be fun and can have various physical, mental, and emotional benefits if executed in a way that makes sense for you. Here’s a rundown of five exercises that can be ideal for retirees. Walking Walking is an excellent, low-impact exercise that can help improve cardiovascular health, maintain a healthy weight, and improve mood.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 1, 2023
With most schools no longer requiring standardized test scores, college-bound students will have to look to other ways to impress admissions officers.
Validea
DECEMBER 1, 2023
In this episode, we speak with Joel Tillinghast, who will retire as the manager of the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund at the end of this year. Joel managed the fund for over 30 years and built an impressive track record, substantially outperforming the S&P 500 over his tenure. We talk to Joel about the biggest lessons from his career, his approach to finding undervalued stocks, what he learned from Peter Lynch, the most important advice he will give his successors and a lot more.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Associated RIA and CPA firms add seven new employees and an office in Clinton, South Carolina.
Investing Caffeine
DECEMBER 1, 2023
With all this potential recession talk that has lasted two years, you would expect a lump of coal to arrive in your Christmas stocking this year. But quite the contrary, Santa Claus appears to have arrived early this year as evidenced by the +8.9% spike in prices last month, the largest monthly increase in 10 years. The NASDAQ fared slightly better with a +10.7% rise, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged by a tad with an +8.0% monthly increase.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Help your clients give back with confidence.
Alpha Architect
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Full exposure to domestic equities. Full exposure to international equities. Partial exposure to REITs. No exposure to commodities. No exposure to intermediate-term bonds. DIY Trend-Following Allocations: December 2023 was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Here is the CES Strike report for November released this morning: This shows a total of 10,500 workers on strike in November, down from 48,100 in October. With the end of the UAW and SAG-AFTRA strikes, 41,300 strikers returned to work for the November reference period. Note: The reference period usually contains the 12th of the month, however there are exceptions, and the reference period for November 2023 was the 5th through the 11th.
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
DECEMBER 1, 2023
From Bloomberg, AQR alum Roni Israelov, now at NDVR, wrote a research paper that craps all over covered call funds. Two big takeaways are that the funds lose money over the long term on a price basis, so not including dividends. The other issue is more behavioral, he says it is a bad mistake to give up return (price appreciation) for income. He's quoted Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE “some investors might be attracted to covered calls for the wrong reason, seeking income rather t
Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA
What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have more almost tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 1, 2023
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) remained at 46.7 in November. The latest figure marks the 13th straight month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The November reading was below the forecast of 47.6.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 1, 2023
From BofA: Overall, since our last weekly publication, our 4Q US GDP tracking estimate fell three-tenths to 1.0% q/q saar. [Dec 1st estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.5% (qoq ar) and our Q4 domestic final sales growth forecast by the same amount to +2.1% (qoq ar). [Dec 1st estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 per
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 1, 2023
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of November 17th, the index was at 10.531, down 0.444 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for November: No Holiday Boost but U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Gains in November (pay site). Labor-related plant shutdowns in the U.S. that covered the latter half of September and most of October negatively impacted deliveries in November. Combined sales of the vehicles impacted by shutdowns fell 15% year-over-year in November.
Trade Brains
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Best Mukul Agrawal Portfolio Stocks : Every world has its celebrity, who set the benchmark in their field. They are considered the best in what they do and every other being wants to resonate their personality & get as close as possible. These celebrities to some are the definition of Perfection. Just like movies have celebrity Actors and actresses, the world of Finance also has certain celebrities.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 1, 2023
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during October 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,027.1 billion, 0.6 percent above the revised September estimate of $2,014.7 billion. The October figure is 10.7 percent above the October 2022 estimate of $1,830.5 billion. emphasis added Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,579.3 billi
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