Thu.Nov 02, 2023

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Where is This Rally Going?

The Big Picture

Before yesterday’s FOMC meeting, I reiterated my view from July 2023 that this hiking cycle was – or at least should be – over. The Narrative bias driving commentary today is that this sudden bullishness is the market sussing out the last hike. But this after-the-fact story does not resonate as truth with me, as it looks more like the 10% market correction of October 2023 has ended.

Taxes 289
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Longform links: bandwidth depletion

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unraveling of a Wall Street Legend" by Rob Copeland. (nytimes.com) An excerpt from "The Dissident: Alexey Navalny, Profile of a Political Prisoner" by David M. Herszenhorn. (politico.com) Private equity The private equity industry controls a growing portion of the American economy.

Media 264
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Kitces & Carl Ep 124: When Clients Evolve Out Of Your Niche Specialization Should You Stay Or Go (Or Not)

Nerd's Eye View

Many financial advisors have found that serving a client niche not only helps them run a more efficient firm (as they work with clients facing similar planning issues), but also attracts more new clients (as they are able to offer a unique value proposition for clients within the niche). Notably, though, while certain clients are likely to stay within the niche throughout their lives (e.g., retired clients tend to remain retired until their deaths), other clients might 'evolve' out of the niche

Clients 180
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Thursday links: avoiding permanent losses

Abnormal Returns

Markets Bonds are now competition for stocks. (ritholtz.com) November and December have been good months after a stock markete correction. (carsongroup.com) Fund management Why it's hard for investors to quit Blackrock ($BLK). (riabiz.com) Vanguard is finalizing its exit from China. (pionline.com) Advertising If the economy were bad, companies would be cutting back on advertising.

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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Medicare Time – Now What? Things to Know as You Start Out

Carson Wealth

By Matt Lewis, CLTC ® , Vice President, Insurance You’re turning 65 this year and Medicare is on your mind. Medicare is a subset of Social Security and run by the Social Security Administration. In my experience, it may be almost as complicated as the Internal Revenue Code! With that said, let’s answer some common questions about Medicare to help you get started.

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More Trending

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My morning train reads: • The Economy Is Great. Why Are Americans in Such a Rotten Mood? Lingering inflation can’t explain all of the unhappiness; maybe it is referred pain from the wider world. ( Wall Street Journal ) • The Bond Market, a Sleeping Giant, Awakes : Soaring interest rates have the power to alter the direction of the economy and command the attention of Washington, our columnist says. ( New York Times ) see also World’s Safest Market Becomes a Magnet for Big Investors : US governme

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly New Listings UP 5.6% YoY; Active Inventory Down 1.0% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 28, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 1.0%. For 19 straight weeks, the number of homes available for sale has registered below that of the previous year. • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 5.6% from one year ago.

Sales 128
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Advisors vs. Addiction

Wealth Management

Ohio is leading the way in attempting to properly arm advisors for a fight that’s already underway, whether they realize it or not.

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Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand ).

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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WealthManagement EDGE Podcast: Jamie Hopkins on Transitions, Coaching Success and Lifelong Learning

Wealth Management

Career shifts and mentorships keep Jamie Hopkins facing forward.

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Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?

Advisor Perspectives

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

Valuation 116
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$15B RIA Sequoia Launches Family Office

Wealth Management

Sequoia Sentinel represents about 55% of the firm’s assets and serves clients with a minimum of $20 million.

Assets 124
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It's Long-Term Care Awareness Month: Make Sure Your Clients Prepare for Any Eventuality

NAIFA Advisor Today

November is National Long-Term Care Awareness Month and it is a great time to bring potential limited and extended care planning needs top-of-mind with your clients. It is important for every comprehensive financial plan to include LTC considerations. So even if LTC insurance is not your primary line of business, Long-Term Care Awareness Month gives you a good opportunity to get clients up to speed.

Clients 105
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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Dynasty Partner Firm Lifts Two Advisors Out of Rockefeller

Wealth Management

Christopher Fineburg and Teresa Armel have left Rockefeller Global Family Office, which has become one of the most sought-after options for UHNW advisors, to join Next Capital Management.

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The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs

Advisor Perspectives

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the October 2023 close.

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Elements Unveils New RIA Partnership Model

Wealth Management

The upcoming service will focus on investors who do not currently meet the asset minimums at most firms.

Assets 119
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2024 IRS Contribution Limits For IRAs, 401(k)s, and More

Darrow Wealth Management

The IRS has released the 2024 contribution limits for retirement plans and other cost-of-living adjustments. Contribution Limits for 401(k)s, IRAs and More in 2024 Income Limits for Tax-Deductible IRA Contributions Roth IRA Contribution Eligibility The post 2024 IRS Contribution Limits For IRAs, 401(k)s, and More appeared first on Darrow Wealth Management.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Mindy Diamond on Independence: An Inside Look at Goldman Sachs Advisor Solutions

Wealth Management

Richard Lofgren, the managing director of Goldman Sachs Advisor Solutions, details how they differentiate from other established custodians, their ideal advisor profile and more.

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Refining the process of generating Google reviews from clients 

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Aaron Kane, B Bus, AFA We’ve built a cool and better process now around short surveys for clients. Once they do them, I reach out and say, “Hey, do you mind doing us a favor? We don’t advertise, but the way to do it is word-of-mouth, and Google’s the best way. So, can you give us a Google review?” I’ve been pushing that probably the last 12 months, and we’ve gone from having 10 reviews to 75.

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15 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (Nov. 3, 2023)

Wealth Management

Blackstone’s flagship non-traded REIT limited redemptions for the 12th straight month. PWC released its annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate report. These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world to end the week.

Investing 115
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The Arizona Experiment!

Mr. Money Mustache

– The thing that drew me to early retirement is freedom , and that’s still the best part of it. Back in 2005, the primary reason for this freedom-seeking was being able to devote my best hours to being a Dad – I had a feeling my career in tech would be too demanding to sustain once the full-time job of raising children kicked in. Eighteen years later, wow has that guess ever turned out to be right.

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Crafting Impact: Revenue Growth And Efficiency For Finance Professionals

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

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New Generation of Capital Providers Is Helping Syndicators Weather Today’s Storm

Wealth Management

Among the hardest hit real estate market participants are syndicators of over-leveraged investments with debt at floating rates.

Investing 111
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The Costly Slip-Ups: 3 Major Blunders Newbie Options Traders Must Dodge

Trade Brains

Options trading presents a highly rewarding yet perilous venture. As per SEBI’s circular and the disclaimers issued by most trading platforms, a staggering 90% of individual traders in the equity Futures and Options Segment find themselves incurring net losses. On average, those who end up on the losing side face trading deficits amounting to approximately ₹50,000.

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Pimco Sounds Alarm on Under-Regulated Private Credit Markets

Wealth Management

Private credit has fast become a Wall Street favorite and is attracting cash from hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers and pension providers as well as private equity firms.

Insurance 110
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My College Students overcome fear via “The Four Trials of Western Kentucky University”

Ron A. Rhodes

Is going to college about acquiring knowledge, or skills? In decades past, before the internet, learning and memorizing facts had greater importance than it has today.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Friday: Employment Report

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Rates were at 8% just two weeks ago! Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for October. The consensus is for 168,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%. • At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for October. The consensus is for a decrease to 53.0 from 53.6.

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The Compound and Friends: The AI Moment Comes to Wall Street

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by The US Benchmark Series: See here for more information on $TBIL, US Benchmarks 3mo Treasury Bill ETF. On today’s show, we discuss: Big money pros are split on the outlook for stocks. But they are fans of bonds. Goldman’s JP Morgan copycat ETF launches in ‘early days’ of boom Listen here: Charts: Eric Jackson: Twitter I.

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Crestmont P/E Falls for Third Conseuctive Month

Advisor Perspectives

Based on the October S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 31.8 is 113% above its arithmetic mean, 131% above its geometric mean, and is at the 96th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

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