Thu.Feb 15, 2024

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CPI Shelter Measures: 6-12 Month Lag

The Big Picture

Last month, I mentioned that CPI inflation measures were based on lagging BLS measures of Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER). BLS highlighted housing prices, headlining the CPI report as “CPI for all items rose 0.3% in January; shelter up ” As the chart above shows, Shelter was 2/3rds of the increase in the most recent. ( Chart thanks to Michael McDonough ).

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Longform links: being more creative

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "Private Equity: A Memoir" by Carrie Sun. (wsj.com) An excerpt from "On Thinking for Yourself: Instinct, Education, Dissension" by Caitlin Flanagan. (theatlantic.com) An excerpt from "Get Married: Why Americans Must Defy the Elites, Forge Strong Families, and Save Civilization" by Brad Wilcox. (theatlantic.com) An excerpt from "A Real Right To Vote: How A Constitutional Amendment Can Safeguard American Democracy" by Richard L.

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When Should You Hire a Financial Advisor?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Josh Brown joined me again this week to discuss questions about career advice for younger advisors, when it makes sense to hire a financial advisor for retirement, 401ks vs. brokerage accounts and how to deploy cash in the face of all-time highs in the stock market. Further Reading: How Rich Are the Baby Boomers? The post When Should You Hire a Financial Advisor?

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Thursday links: stick-to-itiveness

Abnormal Returns

Bonds Good luck modeling the 10-year Treasury yield. (capitalspectator.com) What economic report surprises matter for the stock and bond markets? (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Inflation-protected bonds are seeing a backlash. (economist.com) How does race affect the muni bond market? (wsj.com) Funds Do lifecycle investment funds need a refresh? (citywire.com) How long can Grayscale maintain a 1.5% fee for a spot Bitcoin ETF?

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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The Law and Strategies to Convert a College 529 to a Roth

Advisor Perspectives

Beginning this year, the SECURE Act 2.0 allows owners of 529 plans to convert unused 529 funds to the beneficiary’s Roth IRA.

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More Trending

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NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Rises for Third Straight Month

Advisor Perspectives

Moderating mortgage rates, possible Fed rate cuts, and a lack of exiting inventory have led to increased builder confidence as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose for a third straight month to its highest level since August. The index is at 48, up 4 points from January and above the forecast of 46.

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Importance of Documented Processes in an Operations Manual

Wealth Management

The integration of documented processes with CRM workflows empowers organizations to streamline operations, enhance customer satisfaction and drive sustainable growth.

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Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in January

Calculated Risk

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in January after recording no change in December. In January, manufacturing output declined 0.5 percent and mining output fell 2.3 percent; winter weather contributed to the declines in both sectors. The index for utilities jumped 6.0 percent, as demand for heating surged following a move from unusually mild temperatures in December to unusually cold temperatures in January.

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WealthStack Roundup: Datalign's Impressive Numbers

Wealth Management

Our tech columnist filters through this week's tech announcements, singling out Datalign, Arcus Partner and Finity 360 AI, and Advyzon and Nebo Wealth.

Numbers 114
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Navigating the Evolving Landscape of Cyber Insurance and How it Relates to Cyber Compliance

NAIFA Advisor Today

With over three decades of expertise in the Life Insurance sector, I've come to realize there's nothing more vital for safeguarding your business than cybersecurity. Whether you're a financial advisor, an insurance agent, a broker-dealer, or a principal of a brokerage agency, a single cyberattack could devastate your business. Adopting a Zero Trust approach is essential.

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The Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: Former First Republic Head Launches RIA with Backing from Summit Partners

Wealth Management

Bob Thornton and Megan Whalen candidly discuss the fallout from First Republic Bank and building a new RIA backed by private equity firm Summit Partners.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Down 1.1% in January

Advisor Perspectives

Month-over-month nominal retail sales in January were down 0.8% and up 0.65% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 1.1% MoM and down 2.38% year-over-year.

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Four Factors of Money Management

Wealth Management

You owe it to your clients to prevent these hidden factors of market volatility, portfolio construction, fees and taxes from decimating their wealth.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Friday: Housing Starts, PPI

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for January. The consensus is for 1.470 million SAAR, up from 1.460 million SAAR. • Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for February).

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$24B Choreo Hiring Growth, Practice Management Coaches

Wealth Management

These new full-time executives will help Choreo's advisors network and build relationships with CPAs in their market.

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How And Why To Give Away Your Money In 2024

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

The past few years have seen a downward trend in charitable giving. In some of the most recent data put together by the Association of Fundraising Professionals and the Fundraising Effectiveness Project , 2023 proved to be a continuation of this trend. As we move into 2024, we must consider the important factors causing this trend and affecting the future of charitable giving.

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Pathstone?to Buy $3.65B Crestone Capital

Wealth Management

With its 14th acquisition in as many years, Pathstone is picking up more than 170 individual clients with an average of around $17 million in assets.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Make changes before you think you need to

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Matt Pais, MDRT Senior Content Specialist If you could respond to a disruptive environment, would you rather do that when the market was strong and your brand had equity, or when your revenue was flat and you were losing clout in the marketplace? The first option is clearly preferred, said Peter Sheahan, who has advised leaders from companies like Apple and Goldman Sachs on innovative business approaches, during his Main Platform presentation at the 2017 Annual Meeting.

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Cetera OSJ Snags $312M Team From LPL Financial

Wealth Management

The Regal Wealth Advisors team has joined Summit Financial Networks, the OSJ run by Marshall Leeds.

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Timely Tactics in Market Timing – Ticking Success or Ticking off Trouble?

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

We often tell our clients that we don’t have a crystal ball, we don’t know how the market will perform over the next few months or what specific stocks will be up or down. What we do know is fundamentally how markets work and what previous economic cycles have shown to be true over and over again. We believe that, in the long run, we will see positive investment returns (otherwise we wouldn’t invest!

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Thursday Randoms

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Barron's posted an article that by the title was about expenses to consider if you retire early but the article was pretty thin. It made a couple of good points though including that if you are not working but not yet eligible for Medicare then health insurance through healthcare.gov is going to be very cheap. Someone in that situation would probably also pay nothing to very little in long term capital gains if they have a taxable non-qualified investment account.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in February

Calculated Risk

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 48, up from 44 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Sentiment Posts Third Consecutive Monthly Gain Expectations that mortgage rates will continue to moderate in the coming months, the prospect of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year, and a protracted lack of existing inventory helped provide a bo

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The Compound and Friends: The Magnificent 7 is a Bubble

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by Carta: See here for more information on Carta’s equity management tools On today’s show, we discuss: Bitcoin ETFs are a siren song, not proof of concept America’s most expensive home for sale hits the market for $295M Listen here: Favorites: Mr. & Mrs. Smith The Last Green Valley by Mark Sullivan One Love Charts: Richard B.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 212,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending February 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000 , a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 218,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,500, an increase of 5,750 from the previous week's revised average.

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Retail Sales Fall More Than Expected in January

Advisor Perspectives

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for January revealed a 0.8% drop in headline sales compared to December, the largest monthly pull back in consumer spending since March. The latest decline was much larger than the anticipated 0.2% monthly decline. Core sales (ex Autos) also fell short of expectations by decreasing 0.6% in January compared to the expected 0.2% growth.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Retail Sales Decreased 0.8% in January

Calculated Risk

On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.8% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 0.6 percent from January 2023. From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.3 billion, down 0.8 percent from the previous month , and up 0.6 percent above January 2023.

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Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Fall (Again) in January

Advisor Perspectives

In January, nominal home values increased for a 10th straight months while "real" home values fell for a 5th straight month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $342,941, up 0.12% from the previous month and up 3.13% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.44% month-over-month and -2.92% year-over-year.

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10 Best Bond Brokers in India All You Need To Know!

Trade Brains

10 Best Bond Brokers in India Investors always seek to earn more and are risk-averse while investing. Early investors typically take more risks at the start of their careers or in their early and late 20s, and as they age, they diversify their portfolio by shifting away from equities and towards fixed-income securities such as bonds and debentures, which carry little or no risk based on the securities purchased and are based on yield return.