Fri.Nov 29, 2024

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Never Mix Payroll and Household Survey Data

The Big Picture

@TBPInvictus here (link is now to Bluesky) Let’s cut to the chase: A Hoover Institution analysis of California private job creation is off by a factor of 100. Between January 2022 and June 2024, the state created 523,700 private sector jobs — not 5,400 as claimed. MSM uncritically repeated the false number. I spend far too much time debunking economic b t.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (November 30–December 1)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study from Cerulli Associates shows that consumer trust in financial services companies has increased significantly over the past decade, with firms that provide a more personalized approach to providing financial advice seeing the best results.

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Friday links: the siren song of FOMO

Abnormal Returns

Markets A look at the best performing stocks of the past 20 years. (bespokepremium.com) The great bond bull market is over. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Strategy No one is immune from investment FOMO. (awealthofcommonsense.com) How much foreign equity does your target-date fund own? (wsj.com) Finance The ownership base of Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) stock is set to dramatically change.

Media 162
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Calendar Anomalies, Much Ado About Nothing

Alpha Architect

An anomaly is a pattern in stock returns that deviates from what is expected based on established financial theories or models. These patterns can sometimes present opportunities for abnormal returns. However, they are often inconsistent and challenging to exploit. Many anomalies have achieved consensus and, thus, have been incorporated into factor-based models, including size, value, [.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Podcast links: recycled guests

Abnormal Returns

Listening Podcasters are increasingly wary of recycling guests. (bloomberg.com) Now CEOs want to go on podcasts to tell their stories. (semafor.com) Don't kid yourself, podcasting isn't an easy business. (garbageday.email) The best psychology podcasts including 'The Psychology Podcast with Scott Barry Kaufman.' (psypost.org) VC Matt Reustle talks VC secondaries with Ravi Viswanathan is the founder and Managing Partner of NewView Capital.

Investing 147

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This $7 Trillion Pile Won’t Save the Bulls

Advisor Perspectives

The money-market industry just reached a significant milestone with Crane Data reporting that these cash-like funds have amassed a record $7 trillion in assets. There are many ways to think about this development.

Assets 59
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Q4 GDP Tracking: Mid 2% Range

Calculated Risk

From Goldman: Following [Wednesday]’s data, we have left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.0%. [Nov 27th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on November 27, up from 2.6 percent on November 19.

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AI in Asset and Wealth Management: Going Beyond the Hype

Advisor Perspectives

AI can be a powerful tool, but one that demands thoughtful, measured implementation. Taking thoughtful steps now to integrate and innovate with AI will keep you competitive. Turn your back on it and you’re probably not in business in the long run.

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The Most Misunderstood Bull Market Ever | Jim Paulsen

Validea

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with veteran investment strategist Jim Paulsen to discuss the current market landscape and economic outlook. Paulsen, author of Paulson Perspectives on Substack, shares unique insights on why traditional recession indicators have failed, how Main Street sentiment impacts markets, and why he remains optimistic despite widespread pessimism.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Moving Averages: S&P Finishes November 2024 Up 5.7%

Advisor Perspectives

Valid until the market close on December 31, 2024 This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.

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Validea’s Top 10 Peter Lynch Stocks – November 2024

Validea

Peter Lynch built his reputation managing Fidelity’s Magellan Fund, and Validea has developed a systematic approach based on his key principles. At its core, this strategy seeks companies offering growth at a reasonable price (GARP). The foundation of this approach is the Price-to-Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio – found by comparing a company’s P/E ratio to its earnings growth rate.

Numbers 52
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Chicago PMI Edged Lower in November

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 40.2 in November from 41.6 in October. The latest reading is worse than the 44.9 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a twelfth straight month.

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Arrow Global Selects SEI as a Strategic Growth Partner

SEI

Breadth of Global Offering Enables Customization and Business Transformation for Private Credit Funds

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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One Spark Away from Ignition

Advisor Perspectives

The U.S. economy faces growing risks, from a surging Federal deficit to geopolitical uncertainty. Investors must assess how these factors could ignite market instability and take proactive steps to safeguard their portfolios.

Economy 52
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ChatGPT’s $8 Trillion Birthday Gift to Big Tech

Advisor Perspectives

Saturday marks two years since OpenAI posted an oddly named widget called ChatGPT to the web. Its staffers placed bets on how many users it would accumulate, the highest estimate being 100,000. How wrong they were.

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Buffett’s Life Advice May Be More Valuable Than His Portfolio

Advisor Perspectives

On Monday, Warren Buffett announced that he was donating more than $1 billion in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shares to four family foundations — a continuation of his commitment to give away the vast majority of his wealth to charity rather than pass it on to his family.

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Payment Scams Are Surging. Banks Need Help

Advisor Perspectives

’Tis the season for a surge in financial frauds and scams, a huge and growing problem that caused nearly $500 billion in losses globally last year, along with untold human suffering.

Banking 52
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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Comcast’s Spinoff Plan Is Too Good to Ditch for Quick Cash

Advisor Perspectives

“Think of what we could do together” is a touching line at the denouement of Wicked: Part 1 , the movie currently raking it in at the box office for Comcast Corp.’s Universal Pictures.

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Groundhog Day Meets Back to the Future - Our November 2024 Market Commentary

Advisor Perspectives

Another election season has come to an end. While there are opposing feelings about the outcome of the election, I think everyone agrees that they are happy it is over.

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Chaotic Commitments at COP29

Advisor Perspectives

We are prone to animal analogies when describing disorderly situations: like herding cats, like a barrel full of monkeys, like a dog’s breakfast.

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Choosing Municipal Bonds: GO or Revenue?

Advisor Perspectives

You're interested in investing in municipal bonds, but which type—general obligation or revenue—is best for you? We break it down.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Ideas for the “Bookends” of Your Advisory Business

Advisor Perspectives

As students across the country start to prepare for year-end exams, there are valuable lessons we can take from the classroom.

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Treasury Yields Snapshot: November 29, 2024

Advisor Perspectives

The yield on the 10-year note ended November 29, 2024 at 4.18%, the 2-year note ended at 4.13%, and the 30-year at 4.36%.

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Will a “Red Wave” Affect Municipal Bonds’ Tax-Exempt Status?

Advisor Perspectives

Wholesale elimination of tax exemption isn’t likely, but certain types of muni bonds could be targets.

Taxes 52
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Corporate Bond ETFs Are Fueling a Rise in Monster Block Trades

Advisor Perspectives

The boom in portfolio trading, where investors can buy or sell scores of corporate bonds with just a few clicks of a mouse, is fueling mega trades that were rare in credit markets just a few years ago.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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The Vintage Year for US Stock Markets That Few People Expected

Advisor Perspectives

2024 is set to enter Wall Street’s hall of fame of bull years.

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US Bitcoin ETFs Head for Record Monthly Inflow on Trump Optimism

Advisor Perspectives

A group of one dozen US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds is on the cusp of a record monthly net inflow, bolstered by the digital asset’s historic surge toward $100,000 on President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of crypto.

Assets 52