Thu.Oct 26, 2023

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Thursday links: an emotional trap

Abnormal Returns

Markets Why aren't stocks down more? (theirrelevantinvestor.com) The stock-bond correlation does one thing: it changes. (fa-mag.com) Stocks outperform bonds over the long run, but not every year or even decade. (bestinterest.blog) 60/40 portfolios Where the valuation of the 60/40 portfolio stands. (morningstar.com) Why the 60/40 portfolio endures. (demystifyingmarkets.com) Strategy On the importance of being able to sit on your hands.

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Navigating Financial Disasters

The Big Picture

Earlier this year, I gave my first presentation since the pandemic began. I discussed all of the many ways we hurt ourselves financially, specifically, the focus was on the 3 biggest mistakes high net-worth people make. I got lots of good feedback about the presentation, but my favorite note from someone in the room was: “ Thanks for identifying these issues, but how do I navigate them ?

Taxes 148
Insiders

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What Returns Should You Expect in the Stock Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Further Reading: Do Valuations Even Matter For the Stock Market? 1I would argue real estate would be a close second on this list from an inflation hedge perspective but the long run returns are much harder to calculate when you include things like ancillary costs, mortgage rates, refinancing, leverage, etc. 2And this is real since stocks are a real asset.

Marketing 138
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CoreLogic: "US Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in August"

Calculated Risk

From CoreLogic: US Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in August • The share of U.S. borrowers who were in serious mortgage delinquency (90 days or more late on payments) dropped to 0.9% in August, the lowest recorded since January 1999. • The overall national mortgage delinquency rate (30 days or more late) was at 2.6% in August, also a historic low. • The U.S. foreclosure rate held steady at 0.3% in August, unchanged since early 2022. • Only Idaho and Utah saw slight annual

Marketing 132
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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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JP Morgan Asset Management Ramps Up Offerings Aimed at Wealth Channel

Wealth Management

The launch of JP Morgan Private Markets Fund earlier this month was the asset manager’s latest offering in the race to make alternatives more accessible.

Assets 119

More Trending

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Pending Home Sales Remain Low Despite September Growth

Advisor Perspectives

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index inched up 1.1% in September to 72.6, a surprising increase compared to the expected 1.8% decline. Despite the growth, pending home sales remain low as the latest index reading is the third lowest in the historical series. Pending home sales are down 11.0% compared to one year ago.

Sales 116
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Financial Services Needs Compliance Aggregators

Wealth Management

Compliance has not kept up with the current the dynamic regulatory environment and its multitude of requirements.

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5 Best Chemical Stocks with High FII Holdings – Watchlist Gems?

Trade Brains

Best Chemical Stocks with High FII Holdings : In the complex structure of global industries, when we see textiles of multiple colors, and skyscrapers built around the world we have to sit & ask ourselves, What are the basic components that make all of this possible? What are the raw materials that might seem simple but can construct an intricately beautiful world?

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SEC Charges Former WEG Advisor for Defrauding Elderly Clients

Wealth Management

The commission accused Julie Anne Darrah of a multi-year scheme targeting elderly female advisory clients spanning from before and after her firm joined Wealth Enhancement Group.

Clients 116
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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Chart of the Week: Booming GDP?

Discipline Funds

Q3 GDP came in at a boomy 4.9%. The chart at the right breaks down the contributions by component. The primary drivers were inventories and personal consumption at 1.3% and 2.69%. The inventory rebuild is a volatile component, but the consumption figure is impressive and reflects the most important component of GDP. The US consumer has been remarkably resilient in the face of many different headwinds.

Economy 105
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Large Enterprises Drive LPL’s Q3 Recruiting

Wealth Management

CEO Dan Arnold sees the firm’s recent deal with Prudential as a catalyst to having more discussions with insurance-owned firms with similar needs.

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Why Aren’t Stocks Down More?

The Irrelevant Investor

Consumer prices are up 20% since the end of 2019. Interest rates have gone from 0% to 5% over the same time. Financial conditions have tightened, and yet the stock market hasn’t broken. If you had known the future paths of the two most important macro variables, inflation and interest rates, you would have thought the stock market would be significantly worse off than it is today.

Marketing 104
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Mindy Diamond on Independence: How to Navigate the Emotional Rollercoaster Ride of a Transition

Wealth Management

Mindy Diamond and Louis Diamond share ideas from 25 years of experience to help advisors navigate the daunting process of transition.

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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Tips to Save for Retirement

Talon Wealth

Retirement planning can be intimidating, especially if you need help figuring out where to start. But with a few simple tips and arming yourself with a bit of knowledge, you can begin to prepare for your golden years and set yourself on the path to financial security. Determine When to Start Saving When it comes to saving for retirement, earlier is almost always better.

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11 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (Oct. 27, 2023)

Wealth Management

Big changes at the top were announced for both Rudin and Silverstein Properties with next generation family members taking the helms at both firms. The Wall Street Journal looked at the growth of the data center segment as an investment strategy. These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world to wrap up the week.

Investing 111
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Retirement Planning Tips for Women

Talon Wealth

Retirement planning is a critical part of financial security that many women still overlook. However, remember that as a woman, you have a longer life expectancy than a man, which means retirement planning is even more important. You need to plan for a longer retirement period and ensure you have enough of a nest egg to accommodate your needs. The good news is, by concentrating on a few key areas now, you can increase your chances of spending your golden years happy, comfortable, and secure. 1.

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Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick Will Succeed James Gorman as CEO

Wealth Management

Pick beat out two other CEO contenders: Co-President Andy Saperstein and Dan Simkowitz, who has led investment management.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Confident Compassion: How Corey Anderson Succeeded in Building a New DI Distribution Model

NAIFA Advisor Today

Corey Anderson is an insurance agent specializing in counseling advisors on implementing insurance plans for disabled clients. As an industry leader, Corey is a frequently featured speaker at industry meetings on topics pertaining to disability insurance. He has served on the state and local NAIFA board for over 18 years, holding various roles, including president.

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BEA: Real GDP increased at 4.9% Annualized Rate in Q3

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 , according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, and resi

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Empowering Clients to Invest Fearlessly

Wealth Management

Advisors at Nitrogen's Fearless Investing Conference describe how they're helping their clients invest fearlessly.

Clients 72
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Durable Goods Orders Rise More Than Expected in September

Advisor Perspectives

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose more than expected in September, coming in at $297.24B. This is a 4.7% increase from the previous month and is more than the expected 1.7% growth. The series is up 7.8% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were up 0.5% from the previous month and up 1.7% from one year ago.

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Crafting Impact: Revenue Growth And Efficiency For Finance Professionals

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

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Bitcoin Faces Reality Check if ETF Launches Spark ‘Sell-the-News’ Pivot

Wealth Management

The largest digital asset is up 16% this week and at one point topped $35,000 for the first time since 2022.

Assets 72
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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 3.4% YoY, and core PCE prices up 3.7% YoY. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for October).

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Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 4.9%, Higher Than Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.9% in Q3 2023, according to the advance estimate. The latest estimate is higher than the forecasted 4.3% growth and is more than double the pace of the Q2 2023 GDP final estimate of 2.1%.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 2.0% YoY; New Listings Down 1.0% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 21, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 2.0%. For 18 straight weeks, the number of homes available for sale has registered below that of the previous year.

Sales 69
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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The Compound and Friends: The Trillion Dollar Question

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by Public: Visit public.com/compound for more information on how to earn 5+% interest with a treasury account on public. On today’s show, we discuss: New normal or no normal? How economists got it wrong for 3 years Listen here: Charts: Recommendations: Same As Ever Rick Brink: LinkedIn Contact us at askthecompoundshow@gmail.com with any fee.

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Bonds as Diversifiers Aren’t Dead — Just Dormant

Wealth Management

Stock-bond correlations are positive again, making many observers question conventional investing wisdom.

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NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 1.1% in September; Down 11% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Grew 1.1% in September Pending home sales augmented 1.1% in September , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, Midwest and South posted monthly gains in transactions while the West experienced a loss. All four U.S. regions had year-over-year declines in transactions. "Despite the slight gain, pending contracts remain at historically low levels due to the highest mortgage rates in 20 years," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

Sales 64