Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: On a 12-month average basis, Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak. . Recessions have always followed a rollover in Housing Starts, and the only question is timing. Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
Top clicks this week Successful investing is about avoiding unforced errors. (ritholtz.com) Josh Brown, "Every entrepreneur I talk to in the wealth business is scrambling to add services, not cut fees." (downtownjoshbrown.com) On the looming adviser shortage, per McKinsey. (mckinsey.com) This company has thoroughly scrubbed any mention of diversity, inclusion or DEI from its SEC filings.
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Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 Housing Starts and Recessions Monday: At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 13 and DOW futures are up 67 (fair value).
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
The hottest chart in the markets right now is not Nvidia, Fartcoin or one of the quantum computing stocks…it’s the price of eggs: It looks like a chart of Bitcoin, Gamestop or the hottest AI stock on the street. Since 1947, the price of eggs has grown at an annual rate of 2.4%, more than one percent lower than the overall annual inflation rate of 3.5%.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
What's the first thing that pops in your head when I say "endowment style?" Is it this? The "endowment" result is very close to red line VBAIX every year except 2020 when it lagged by almost 600 basis point and 2022 when it outperformed by about 500 basis points. If any of us had constructed this portfolio and implemented it for ourselves, it would have been a very acceptable result.
oXYGen Financial
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
By Michael DePilla, MDRT in-language content strategist Try one of these tips from MDRT members about communicating and connecting with clients. Save time with templates and dictation We saved a lot of time, and possibly the wage of one full-time staff member, by organizing template letters for our annual client review meetings. I use Otter.ai for dictation during the client meeting, which the office then uses to transcribe.
Advisor Perspectives
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
The road to faster adoption of electric vehicles in India will pass through the railways — not the romantic train travel that stirred the imagination of writers for over a century and continues to inspire Bollywood, but efficient high-speed journeys.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption, and policy failures: Dj bubble: Can bubbles repeat? Bubbles might be especially likely to repeat today thanks to social media, which creates a hothouse environment for ideas to spread across the investor population. If we think of bitcoin investing as a virus, this virus can evolve, mutating and spreading to susceptible minds.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
Markets Dave Nadig, "You are on your own. There are few left to trust." (davenadig.substack.com) Unfortunately, there is no going back. (howardlindzon.com) Strategy Global diversification also means currency diversification. (disciplinefunds.com) Investing success is only knowable in hindsight. (microcapclub.com) Crypto The largest crypto theft of all-time just went down.
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Advisor Perspectives
FEBRUARY 23, 2025
President Donald Trump told a gathering of governors that Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook promised him that the company’s manufacturing would shift from Mexico to the US during a meeting at the White House this week.
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