Fri.Nov 08, 2024

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MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q3 2024

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q3 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Third Quarter of 2024, Up on Annual Basis The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased slightly to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.92 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2024 compared to one year ago, according to the Mortgage Ba

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MiB: Peter Goodman, How the World ran Out of Everything

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with New York Times Global Economic Correspondent Peter Goodman. Prior to the New York Times, Peter began his career as a freelance writer in Southeast Asia before serving as The Washington Post’s Asia Economic Correspondent and later Shanghai Bureau Chief. He has since reported from over 36 countries, holds two Gerald Loeb awards and eight prizes from the Society of American Business Editors and Writers.

Economics 189
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Q4 GDP Tracking: Mid 2% Range

Calculated Risk

Fed Chair Powell, Nov 7, 2024: "It's actually remarkable how strong the U.S. economy is performing. We're performing better than all of our global peers. Ultimately, if you look at the U.S. economy, its performance has been very good." From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 4Q GDP tracker with the October retail sales print and Oct industrial production and Sep business inventories. [ Current forecast 2.0% , Nov 8th] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged

Retail 260
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Podcast links: online slop

Abnormal Returns

Listening Streaming services are filled with pirated songs under sound-alike names. (arstechnica.com) Why you shouldn't get your economic insights from VC podcasts. (passingtime.substack.com) Economy Barry Ritholtz talks with Peter Goodman author of "How the World Ran Out of Everything: Inside the Global Supply Chain." (ritholtz.com) Matt Reustle talks demographics and real estate with Fernando De Leon who is the founder of Leon Capital.

Economy 147
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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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Markets Becoming More Efficient: The Disappearing Index Effect

Alpha Architect

Greenwood and Sammon’s findings of a disappearing index effect provides further support for the findings of McLean and Pontiff, Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? 2016. Once anomalies are well recognized by the market they decline and may even disappear, though limits to arbitrage can allow them to persist. Their findings also provide support for Andrew Lo’s The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (2004).

Marketing 118
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The WealthStack Podcast: How Farther’s Custom Tech Fuels Advisor Growth

Wealth Management

Farther co-founders Taylor Matthews and Brad Genser detail what they plan to do with $72 million in Series C funding.

Planning 278

More Trending

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SEC Fines Invesco Advisers $17.5M For 'Misleading' ESG Claims

Wealth Management

According to the commission, Invesco overstated how much of its AUM was ESG-integrated because that percentage included all ETFs.

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Negative effects of a prolonged bull market

Truemind Capital

Everyone loves a rising market. The longer, the better—what everyone wishes for. This creates the wealth effect, which leads to higher consumption and spending and thus contributes to GDP growth, which feeds into higher stock prices. Under all the glitz and glory, something is becoming unfavorable. There is a bad in every good thing and a good in every bad thing.

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WealthStack Roundup: Driven by AI Explosion, Nvidia Again Is Largest Company by Market Cap

Wealth Management

In other news, AdviceTech.Live is next week, DriveWealth expands to Europe, Pontera integrates with Envestnet BillFin and UBS tokenizes.

Marketing 233
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Strategies for Lead Generation for Financial Advisors

Midstream Marketing

Key Highlights Find good ways to get new clients as a financial advisor. Learn to use social media, content marketing, SEO, and more. This can help you improve your online presence and get quality leads. Explore several ways to get financial advisor leads. Some options are free, while others need payment. Discover the average cost of getting leads and what influences those prices.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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PGIM Taps Morgan Stanley’s Chappuis to Succeed Longtime CEO David Hunt

Wealth Management

Jacques Chappuis will take over Prudential Financial's asset management business at a time when asset management has become a key differentiator for US life insurers.

Insurance 206
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Negative effects of Bull Market

Truemind Capital

Negative effects of a prolonged bull market. Everyone loves a rising market. The longer, the better—what everyone wishes for. This creates the wealth effect, which leads to higher consumption and spending and thus contributes to GDP growth, which feeds into higher stock prices. Under all the glitz and glory, something is becoming unfavorable. There is a bad in every good thing and a good in every bad thing.

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Facts Vs Feelings Take 5 – We Have a New President

Carson Wealth

This week on Take 5, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the post-election market outlook. They note that the election results bring stability, a positive factor for markets. Key points include expectations for tax cuts, continued defense spending, and a strong dollar, all supporting the ongoing bull market.

Taxes 55
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Buffett Valuation Indicator: October 2024

Advisor Perspectives

With the Q3 GDP first estimate and the October close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 194.7%, down from 196.9% the previous quarter.

Valuation 111
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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Barron's Says The Obvious

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

A few different things today. First, the Alberta Investment Management Company, the province's public pension system, cleaned house due to poor performance. I found their asset allocation and wanted to see from the top down if there's a way to mimic them to some extent and get decent results. Here's how I built the portfolio. One version has Blackstone for private equity, another has Blackrock and the third has CBOE.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Continues to Rise

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment continued to rose, according to the preliminary November report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 2.5 points (2.5%) from October's final reading to 73.0. The latest reading was above the forecast of 71.0.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.9% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 November The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 October. 27 October through 2 November 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 60.8% (+1.9%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.99 (+1.2%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$94.22 (+3.1%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Record-Smashing Week

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 finished the week ending November 8 with strong gains, up 4.66% from last Friday. The index closed at a record high and is now up 26.41% year-to-date.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.

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Election Market Overreactions

A Wealth of Common Sense

When Barack Obama was elected president the U.S. economy and markets were in rough shape. From the peak in October 2007 through election day the S&P 500 was already in the midst of a 35% drawdown. By the time he was inaugurated in January 2009, the market was down nearly 50% in total. By March, a Bloomberg opinion piece was calling it the “Obama Bear Market”: President Barack Obama now has the distinction.

Marketing 134
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Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - October 2024

Advisor Perspectives

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of November 8, it was 4.30%.

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Friday links: suspicious forecasts

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Whipsaws are inherent in trend following. (rcmalternatives.com) How our memories affect how we invest. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Information overload is real. (youngmoney.co) Prediction markets What can prediction markets serve up next? (wsj.com) How to use prediction markets. (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) ETFs Investors are losing interest in thematic ETFs as sexier, i.e. leveraged, fund types dominate.

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P/E10 and Market Valuation: October 2024

Advisor Perspectives

Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 36.5.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (November 9–10)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that amidst the impending return of Donald Trump to the White House, observers expect a lighter-touch regulatory environment for RIAs (and the financial services industry as a whole), with many regulations proposed (but not yet implemented) under SEC Chair Gary Gensler (e.g., strengthened rules related to custody and outsourcing) and broader regulatory efforts put forth b

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Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: October 2024

Advisor Perspectives

Based on the October S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 40.5 is 168% above its arithmetic mean, 192% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

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Eight Interesting Things to Know About the Election

Carson Wealth

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher. It is official, Donald J. Trump will become the 47 th President of the United States. This of course is the second time he did it, joining Grover Cleveland as the only people to ever become President twice, but not in consecutive terms.

Economy 142
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Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?

Advisor Perspectives

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: October 2024

Advisor Perspectives

The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.81, up from 1.80 in September.

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Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 177% Above Trend in October

Advisor Perspectives

Quick take : At the end of October, t he inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 177% above its long-term trend, up from October. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

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Fed Watch: Speed Limit 25

Advisor Perspectives

Following the September FOMC meeting’s much ballyhooed 50- basis point (bps) rate cut, the voting members scaled back and reduced the Fed Funds by 25 bps this time around.

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Austin Exposes New York City’s Broken Housing Market

Advisor Perspectives

Here’s something that would have seemed pretty much inconceivable two years ago: According to Zillow, home prices have now risen more in New York City and its environs since the beginning of 2020 than in metropolitan Austin, Texas.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g