Sun.Mar 17, 2024

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Sunday links: when irrationality takes over

Abnormal Returns

Markets Market valuations aren't that helpful in the short term. (tker.co) The U.S. yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. (ft.com) Strategy Why you can ignore all the magazine cover commentary. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Why it's so hard to profit from a big trend, like AI. (wsj.com) Finance A Reddit IPO is another sign that VCs are coming to terms with a new reality.

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So Much Money Everywhere

A Wealth of Common Sense

There’s a bull market in bull market indicators flashing red right now. Barron’s had a bullish cover: The Economist too: The Nasdaq 100 is up more than 60% since the start of 2023. Nvidia is up 500% in that time. There are tens of billions of dollars flowing into the new bitcoin ETFs. Speculation in tech stocks, crypto, NFTs, options, day trading, etc. makes it feel like we picked up right where we left off.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week 40 lessons at age 40 including 'Life advice is like clothing.' (markmanson.net) Travis Kling, "The evidence for the rise of Financial Nihilism is all around us." (epsilontheory.com) The simplest explanation for the disappearance of MH370 is the most likely. (thedailybeast.com) Why this crypto rally is different. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Are the Magnificent Seven all that overvalued?

Valuation 278
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March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2024

Dear Mr. Market

Dear Mr. Market : If your alma mater or favorite college team did not make the tournament on Selection Sunday, we’ve got another option for you! Even if you don’t like or follow college basketball, we think you’ll enjoy what we pioneered and have put together. My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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The premium is the solution

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Marvin H. Feldman, CLU, ChFC Clients and financial advisors have different perspectives. Even if a product is fantastic, a prospect won’t buy it if they don’t realize they even have a problem. As financial advisors, it’s our job to educate them and motivate them to act. Our products are the solution to those problems. The premium is not the problem – it’s just the price tag for solving the problem.

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Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of March 17, 2024 Monday: • At 10:00 AM ET, The March NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 48, unchanged from 48. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 5 and DOW futures are down 27 (fair value).

Numbers 59
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BlackRock, Man Group Reveal Big Japan Bets Before BOJ Decision

Advisor Perspectives

Snap up more Japanese stocks, ratchet up shorts on government debt and keep buying the yen: these are some of the most popular calls from big-name money managers ahead of a central bank meeting that may end the world’s last experiment with negative interest rates.

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[cdata[ Five Surefire Ways to Trigger an IRS Audit ]]

oXYGen Financial

![CDATA[ Tax season can be a nerve-wracking time for many individuals and businesses with the looming worry of an IRS audit hanging overhead. While the average taxpayer faces a low risk of being audited, certain actions can significantly heighten this risk. In this article, we'll explore effective strategies to steer clear of triggering an IRS audit and discuss tactics to diminish your audit.

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Has The American Dream Of Homeownership Become A Myth?

Advisor Perspectives

Homeownership is the quintessential American dream, but it’s become increasingly elusive for many households. A multitude of factors, including soaring home prices, elevated interest rates and persistent inflation, has created the perfect storm, making homeownership a distant reality for more U.S. residents.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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A Valuation Conversation

Advisor Perspectives

You may have noticed the stock market rising lately. Much of the gain isn’t so much “the market” as a handful of mega-cap stocks. Nonetheless, the bulls are clearly in charge. The question is how long they will stay there. History suggests longer than many market bears think.

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U.S. Economic Growth Has Defied the Odds

Advisor Perspectives

With the U.S. economy posting two consecutive quarters of 3%+ GDP growth, recession calls have quieted down.

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Taking Flight: The Opportunity in Aircraft Financing

Advisor Perspectives

Investments in aircraft can offer steady cash flow and a return profile that’s uncorrelated to broad market indices.

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Markets Showing Signs of Bubble on Big Tech, Crypto Surge, BofA’s Hartnett Says

Advisor Perspectives

Markets are showing characteristics of a bubble in the record-setting surge by tech’s so-called Magnificent Seven stocks and the all-time highs in cryptocurrencies, according to Bank of America Corp. Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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How Bitcoin Halving Could Affect Prices

Advisor Perspectives

The January debuts of spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have figured prominently in the cryptocurrency’s ascent this year. However, experienced crypto investors know that the upcoming quadrennial halving is likely playing a significant role in Bitcoin’s 2024 bullishness.

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Certain ‘Magnificent Seven’ Stocks Still Flashing Bullish Signs

Advisor Perspectives

The broad stock market is taking a breather from its rally. That means the “Magnificent Seven” stocks are also catching their breath after a strong rally that started late in 2023. Despite the recent pullback, certain members of that cohort still show technical signs of bullishness.