Wed.Apr 03, 2024

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Wednesday links: looking inward

Abnormal Returns

Markets A look back at Q1 2024 asset class returns. (novelinvestor.com) Growth and value performance flip-flopped in March 2024. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Strategy In the meme stock age is fundamental analysis dead and buried? (howardlindzon.com) On the state of the momentum factor. (ft.com) Alternatives Alternative investments aren't going to save you in an apocalypse.

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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Even more difficult is using data based on samples and surveys (and subject to constant revision!) to develop some idea about which of the myriad possible outcomes might be more likely to occur.

Economics 206
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Personal finance links: making bad decisions

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Liz Ann Sonders about how to rebalance your portfolio. (ritholtz.com) Jesse Cramer talks with Peter Lazaroff about how to hang in there for the long run. (podcasts.apple.com) Dan Haylett talks with financial advisor Ed Combs about the relationship challenges in retirement. (humansvsretirement.com) Carl Richards talks with Hal Hershfield about aligning capital with your values.

Math 262
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 29, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 129
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Tail Hedging Is Not As Easy As You Think

Alpha Architect

Convexity can provide explosive payoffs from unlikely events. It’s a powerful weapon to wield, but like most weapons, it could be inefficient or even dangerous in the hands of the untrained. Tail Hedging Is Not As Easy As You Think was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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I Ran The Numbers And They Work!

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Cliff Asness from AQR wrote a quick post titled Cognitive Dissonance that listed out contradictory ideas that investors have. There were two that I think tie right in to conversations we regularly have here. Part of his point in these is line item risk, the tendency to be overly focused on the holding that is lagging even if it is "supposed" to lag.

Numbers 96
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Animal Spirits: The Never-Ending Travel Boom

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts and KraneShares: See here for YCharts’ blog on improving client retention with proposals & reports See here and here for our discussion with KraneShares discussing China and KraneShares’ full China Internet ETF suite See here for tickets to The Compound and Friends LIVE in Los Angeles On today’s show, we discuss: The psychologist who turne.

Clients 93
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RIA Senvest To Pay $6.5M for Text Message Record-Keeping Failures

Wealth Management

Senvest Management, a $3 billion AUM firm, will pay $6.5 million to settle SEC charges it didn't retain off-channel business-related communications.

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A Guide for Using TikTok and Temu

Advisor Perspectives

Two applications, TikTok and Temu, are subjects of increasing concern over privacy practices.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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401(k) Real Talk Episode 100: April 3, 2024

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussion about flexPATH's victory in court, Empower's new product for small plans, how people fail at retirement and more.

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Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through February 2024, except CoreLogic is through January and Apartment List is through March 2024. The CoreLogic measure is up 2.6% YoY in January, down from 2.8% in December, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.

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Benefits of Gifting Privately Held Business Interests

Wealth Management

A gifting strategy that considers minority interest discounts, the timing of gifts and anticipated appreciation can save millions of dollars in taxes.

Taxes 91
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Heavy Truck Sales Decreased in March

Calculated Risk

This morning, the BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for March. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 78
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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55ip CEO Paul Gamble to Step Down in September

Wealth Management

Chief Technology Officer Gautam Sachdev will take the reins as Gamble transitions into his new role as vice chair for J.P. Morgan Asset Management Solutions.

Assets 85
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ADP: Private Employment Increased 184,000 in March

Calculated Risk

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 184,000 Jobs in March; Annual Pay was Up 5.1% Private sector employment increased by 184,000 jobs in March and annual pay was up 5.1 percent year-over-year, according to the March ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).

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Mutual Funds See Rare Uptick in Inflows

Wealth Management

Mutual funds experienced net inflows of $13 billion in February, according to Cerulli, but it was likely a blip rather than a turning point.

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 208 thousand initial claims, down from 210 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $66.5 billion.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Cambridge Brings Outsourced CFO to HNW Advisors

Wealth Management

Cambridge has partnered with Hero CFO, so advisors can provide sophisticated financing reporting to wealthy clients.

Clients 95
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The Widowhood Penalty: Neglecting Spousal Financial Planning

Advisor Perspectives

When a spouse dies, many women face severe financial hardship despite being part of a married couple for decades. This "widowhood penalty" results from men failing to ensure their wives are financially secure if tragedy strikes.

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Commonwealth Ordered To Pay $93M In SEC Share Class Case

Wealth Management

Commonwealthwas ordered to pay $93 million to the SEC following a judgment the firm didn't disclose mutual fund share class conflicts.

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The Total Return Roller Coaster

Advisor Perspectives

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,666 for an annualized real return of 10.26%.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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$500M Merrill Team Breaks Away to Launch North Carolina RIA

Wealth Management

The Pines Wealth Management will custody with Schwab and use Purshe Kaplan Sterling Investments for brokerage business.

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ISM Services PMI Expands for 15th Straight Month

Advisor Perspectives

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its March services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 51.4, falling short of the 52.8 forecast. The latest reading marks the 15th straight month the index has been expansion territory.

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Choreo Hires Business Development, Practice Management Execs

Wealth Management

The four new executives will help Choreo advisors take advantage of the firm’s CPA partnerships.

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Buffett Valuation Indicator: March 2024

Advisor Perspectives

With the Q4 GDP third estimate and the March close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 184.4%, up from 167.6% the previous quarter.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Six Steps to Avoid Family Collapse During Sudden Change

Wealth Management

Don’t let the business unravel if the founder is silenced by illness or death.

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Chart of the Day: Lowered Expectations

Discipline Funds

Someone emailed me the other day asking about my “muddle through” prediction of the last few years. They were pushing back on this idea that the US economy is just muddling along. I actually love conversations like this because they make me question my own views and consider countering positions. I’ve mentioned in the past that I do this a lot now.

Economy 59
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Health Care Is Still Too Costly for Americans

Advisor Perspectives

America’s approach to health care is an outlier among the world’s rich countries, and not in a good way. Extraordinarily complex and hideously expensive, it still manages to leave some 26 million people without coverage.