Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Listening Why chat podcasts rule the industry. (wired.com) CEOs are increasingly going on (and hosting) podcasts. (ft.com) Would you listen to a AI-generated podcast discussion? (tomtunguz.com) Economy Tyler Cowen talks with Kyla Scanlon author of "In This Economy? How Money & Markets Really Work." (conversationswithtyler.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Kevin Brady about the coming expiration of the TCJA.
Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent survey from Charles Schwab indicates that advisors see technology as the biggest driver of change in the RIA industry, with the growing number of AdvisorTech solutions as the most frequently cited tech-related driver of change.
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Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 4, 2024
ETFs The hunt is on for good ETF tickers. (bloomberg.com) Fidelity is converting two muni bond funds into ETFs. (advisorhub.com) Will investors go for PE replication ETFs? (ft.com) Finance Just how big is private credit? (marketwatch.com) What Vanguard's new CEO has on tap. (barrons.com) Venture capital Why don't more VCs give back capital? (spyglass.org) How the VC industry could bifurcate.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 4, 2024
This week, we speak with Vincent Aita, Founder and CIO of Cutter Capital Management. Prior to founding Cutter Capital in November 2022, Vincent spent time as a Senior Analyst for Millennium Partners and a Portfolio Manager at Citadel. He also received a Ph.D. in molecular genetics from Columbia University. We discuss the launch of Cutter Capital and how he managed to combine a love for genetics and business into a successful career.
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 4, 2024
The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. Construction employment increased 25 thousand and is now 688 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.
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Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 4, 2024
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September , and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 4, 2024
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. September saw a 254,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.1%.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 4, 2024
The estate and gift tax exemption (set at $13.61 million per individual in 2024) is due to expire on Jan. 1, 2026. If Congress doesn’t act, that tax exemption will be cut in half to about $6 million.
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
A Wealth of Common Sense
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Housing can be a good investment. Anyone who bought a home before the pandemic can attest to that. The gains this cycle have been spectacular. But housing is also a form of consumption. You not only have property taxes and homeowners insurance but ongoing maintenance, lawn care, wear & tear, renovations, decorations, furniture, etc. I was reminded of this when we had a minor roof leak issue this week.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 4, 2024
The new hires include CFO David Scarpello who most recently led M&A efforts at Pathstone. The moves come in the wake of Constellation Partners’ minority stake in Perigon.
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 4, 2024
With the Q2 GDP third estimate and the September close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 196.9%, up from 194.9% the previous quarter.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 4, 2024
The shift to a new interest rate environment added more fuel to the fire, pushing REIT total returns up 16.8% in the third quarter alone.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 4, 2024
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in July 2024. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 4, 2024
In addition, Envestnet gets access to Franklin Templeton's Canvas, Orion adds Brinker and Capital Group ETFs; and SS&C broadens its Accord rollout.
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.8 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 35.7.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Celebrating excellence in financial advisory, the 10th annual Wealth Management Industry Awards honored 84 companies and a lifetime achievement award winner at the Ziegfeld Ballroom in NYC.
Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader
In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced his “Make in India” policies shortly after being elected prime minister in 2014, New Delhi has chased the dream of a prosperous manufacturing sector. There have been some successes — when it comes to making mobile phones, for example.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 4, 2024
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate is up three-tenths to 2.6% q/q saar. [Oct 4th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our domestic final sales estimate unchanged at +2.8%. [Oct 3rd estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on October 1, do
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of October 4, it was 3.98%.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand ).
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Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,035 for an annualized real return of 10.70%.
Validea
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Shareholder yield is a comprehensive measure of the value a company returns to its shareholders through various means. It combines three key components: dividend yield, share repurchases, and debt reduction. Dividend yield represents the cash payments made directly to shareholders, while share repurchases increase the ownership stake of existing shareholders by reducing the number of outstanding shares.
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Based on the September S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 39.5 is 162% above its arithmetic mean, 185% above its geometric mean, and is at the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
OCTOBER 4, 2024
The Pacer Metaurus US Large Cap Dividend Multiplier 400 ETF (QDPL), via a Tweet thread from Corey Hoffstein, is an interesting fund with about $500 million in assets that fits right in with one of the discussions we have here regularly. Metaurus is an investment firm that appears to partner with Pacer on the strategy, there are other Pacer Metaurus funds too.
Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global
In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Quick take : At the end of September, t he inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 170% above its long-term trend, up from August. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
Validea
OCTOBER 4, 2024
Here is the latest update for October from Validea’s market valuation tool. Rather than focusing on market-cap weighted indexes like the S&P 500, our tool focuses on the valuation of the average stock relative to history. We use the median of our investable universe of 2700 stocks to perform the calculation. The median stock got a little more expensive in September using the TTM PE, rising from 21 to 21.5.
Advisor Perspectives
OCTOBER 4, 2024
The latest employment report showed 254,000 jobs were added in September, well above forecasts of the expected addition of 147,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%.
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